Stormpc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The KPHI NWS office (Philly) has a nice write up for this time frame. In fact, the entire AFD is outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The video by DT was very good. It explains his thoughts on an extended overrun type event instead of a bombing coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Great job on the video DT!!! I would love to see this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm sure we'll see a couple moisture-laden runs, then as we get closer to the event the northern stream will take over and it'll crap out around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Great job on the video DT!!! I would love to see this play out. DT isn't on this message board...If you want to compliment him you should go to his FB page - he reads that. I think all of us would like to see this "play out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro ensemble mean has a nice s/w on the 2nd and 3rd, but just squashes it on the 4th with the arctic front pushing across the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Kmlwx, you have a chip on your shoulder and when someone takes their time to make a video unlike you, we should appreciate it. ... I was not trying to be rude to you lol. I was telling you that if you wanted to thank him for his video you should do it on his FB page because he does not read this message board anymore. Simple as that lol. If you want me to make a video I will - but my weather forecasting skills are quite poor and I don't think anybody would appreciate it. I'd personally rather see a suppressed solution at this point than a really wound up cutter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I am just kidding Kmlwx, but lately everyone has been snippy and I really don't know why. Winter just started and we have plenty of time. I can understand how many feel about the model inconsistency and getting shafted on most events. I was just kidding about that, just trying to be lively a bit. I agree on seeing a suppressed solution then a cutter. Thanks Kmlwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 DT just posted his new YouTube video about this possible event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 DT isn't on this message board...If you want to compliment him you should go to his FB page - he reads that. I think all of us would like to see this "play out" Il l be flying to FLA on the 3rd, you can bet this will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Il l be flying to FLA on the 3rd, you can bet this will happen Funny. I am in Florida flying home to bwi tomorrow night which is why you can bet tomorrow's event will happen and end by afternoon. Perspective is a funny thing. Sent from my SCH-I605 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Strong high pressure keeps Gulf moisture at bay next week preventing an overrunning situation, at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Strong high pressure keeps Gulf moisture at bay next week preventing an overrunning situation, at this time The NAM kind of looks like some overrunning on New Years Day...or maybe just clouds and drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 5h loops don't look terrible on gfs and nam. Small and fast moving areas of vorticity that pass just south enough. Would like further south and more bend of course but these types of things are really only handled well at very short lead. I won't rule out the potential for 1-2 shots at light overrunning in the next 7 days. I'm just not hanging my hat on everything getting squashed like the models are showing. Every single big strong high behind strong cylcones has not been as strong as modeled. I can't see how this is any different this time. Sure, suppression city can set up shop but looking at the models and saying it's definitely not going to snow is a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hope this pans out.... I have an event on 4th that I would like to see canceled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 sheared out again on EUro.....Is there any reason other than pure wishcasting that we might expect that this could amplify and come north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 sheared out again on EUro.....Is there any reason other than pure wishcasting that we might expect that this could amplify and come north? looks like alot of moisture in the Carolinas. Gotta find a way to make that come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 looks like alot of moisture in the Carolinas. Gotta find a way to make that come north see ya around January 20th for our next event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 see ya around January 20th for our next event? yep...by then we will be really nervous because winter will be almost over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 yep...by then we will be really nervous because winter will be almost over dc may never get a 2" event again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 the next 2 weeks have the potential to be as frustrating as 2001-2002 and last year. Going to be some ugly threads/posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 dc may never get a 2" event again not true. We got 5 inches from Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 sheared out again on EUro.....Is there any reason other than pure wishcasting that we might expect that this could amplify and come north? Idk- we've had a lot of big strong highs modeled in the wake of the big wrapped up systems and not one single one has come true. It would be fitting to go from unlimited marginal air & weakness to our N to a total squash fest but I have my doubts. I'll go out on a limb and say the juice ends up closer than modeled and possibly more amped. Most likely the battlground sets up further N. Congrats RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 JMA continues to bring some moisture into mid atlantic midweek. Waiting for other models to get onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 GFS Ensemble Mean brings more precip into the equation along with it being a decent bit North. Let's hope the low continues to strengthen, allowing it to trend North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Idk- we've had a lot of big strong highs modeled in the wake of the big wrapped up systems and not one single one has come true. It would be fitting to go from unlimited marginal air & weakness to our N to a total squash fest but I have my doubts. I'll go out on a limb and say the juice ends up closer than modeled and possibly more amped. Most likely the battlground sets up further N. Congrats RIC? Makes sense. That seems to be how they get most of their snows down there. At least we know cold air is not going to be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 see ya around January 20th for our next event? It'll happen...I'm in Vegas 17-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It'll happen...I'm in Vegas 17-21 Well, you can easily buy a lot of snow there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It'll happen...I'm in Vegas 17-21 You'll be fine out there.... http://www.skilasvegas.com/winter/mountain/conditions/dor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 it's been a long time since things have been suppressed to our south, so to me, that causes pause otoh, fwiw, it fits nicely into the CFS2 forecast for JAN precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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