I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think it's easy for a weenie to graduate to d*** status considering the lack of snow in much of this region. Too many people take models literally and never focus on the synoptic set up. When someone who has a met background and skills like HM gives an opinion he basis it on scientific fact and experience. The rabid snow starved weenie simply turns on his master out of hunger and disease not malice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think it's easy for a weenie to graduate to d*** status considering the lack of snow in much of this region. Too many people take models literally and never focus on the synoptic set up. When someone who has a met background and skills like HM gives an opinion he basis it on scientific fact and experience. The rabid snow starved weenie simply turns on his master out of hunger and disease not malice. Sir, I laughed a lot. You have a very good point, people (including myself sometimes) need to calm down, because getting mad isn't gonna get you a 2' blizzard that many weenies want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This is interesting because the duration is inside of truncation range for the GFS, so one would hope it's somewhat more skilled in this range, but I have learned to not get too excited about a setup until it's inside 120 hours. The key here seems to be the timing of the clipper that crosses the great lakes, which reinforces the cold air prior to this storm cranking up over the Southeast states. I'll be watching how the models handle that clipper over the coming days. The northern stream always seems to screw things up somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Why are you being a dick ? It's meteorologically impossible for this to cut inland. Aggressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think it's easy for a weenie to graduate to d*** status considering the lack of snow in much of this region. Too many people take models literally and never focus on the synoptic set up. When someone who has a met background and skills like HM gives an opinion he basis it on scientific fact and experience. The rabid snow starved weenie simply turns on his master out of hunger and disease not malice. Sir, I laughed a lot. You have a very good point, people (including myself sometimes) need to calm down, because getting mad isn't gonna get you a 2' blizzard that many weenies want. I have to agree. We have been starved of any meaningful winter weather in the immediate I95 corridor of the MA for some time now that we have become, um, rabid. Hopefully a good point that is well taken. On another note, the 18z GFS shows the southern stream storm getting held up (why) just long enough for the pesky northern stream GL low to exit and allow the southern stream low to get its act together, somewhat. Looks better for us, although it is the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I have to agree. We have been starved of any meaningful winter weather in the immediate I95 corridor of the MA for some time now that we have become, um, rabid. Hopefully a good point that is well taken. On another note, the 18z GFS shows the southern stream storm getting held up (why) just long enough for the pesky northern stream GL low to exit and allow the southern stream low to get its act together, somewhat. Looks better for us, although it is the 18z GFS? Man how quickly people forget 09/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I have to agree. We have been starved of any meaningful winter weather in the immediate I95 corridor of the MA for some time now that we have become, um, rabid. Hopefully a good point that is well taken. On another note, the 18z GFS shows the southern stream storm getting held up (why) just long enough for the pesky northern stream GL low to exit and allow the southern stream low to get its act together, somewhat. Looks better for us, although it is the 18z GFS? Well, it's a long way out there, but I don't know if I'd throw off on the 18z GFS or not. The 18z GFS was the first model to show today's storm as something other than a lakes cutter. And it did that on 12-15-2012. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Why are you being a dick ? It's meteorologically impossible for this to cut inland. Sorry man... I meant Henry margusity:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Man how quickly people forget 09/10 Sorry. 09/10 was a great winter and one I will never forget. I only meant that the last 2 winters, last year especially, have left me (and some others, I presume) a little hungry for results. That is all I meant. I am looking forward to some snowy event in the DC area and so far the results have been meh. Storms appear and quickly dissolve into something that nature intended them to be, but not what I WANT them to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well, it's a long way out there, but I don't know if I'd throw off on the 18z GFS or not. The 18z GFS was the first model to show today's storm as something other than a lakes cutter. And it did that on 12-15-2012. Not bad. Actually I have no bias on the 18z GFS, or the 06Z GFS. I added a question mark at the end because of all the bashing the 18Z has taken lately, whether it was real or in jest. I don't have enough knowledge to be able to attest to the properties of the different runs of the GFS. I have read over the years a lot of arguments for and against the off hour runs but I have no opinion one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Man how quickly people forget 09/10 That was three years ago. And winter hasn't been kind to us in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z GEFS is not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z GEFS is not impressed. you trying to steal Wes' day job are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 you trying to steal Wes' day job are you? I'm too much of a snow weenie to properly imitate Wes' deadpan weenie-smashing. I'd be quite happy with a couple/few inches this weekend...getting climo December snowfall (or slightly above?) in this furnace of a month would be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like the GFS wants to try to create something big here at hr 120...Not sure if it will go more inland or not though but that Northern Plains high should help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Eh, northern stream dominates...Pretty cold dip into the southern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It looked favorable at 120hr, but then the northern stream just digs in and suppresses everything...I dont think I feel that good for this one, if Im not mistaken the EURO does the same thing...Pretty cold for the 1st week of Jan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It looked favorable at 120hr, but then the northern stream just digs in and suppresses everything...I dont think I feel that good for this one, if Im not mistaken the EURO does the same thing...Pretty cold for the 1st week of Jan though. you may be giving up on it too early look at the energy coming down at 5H at 156 hrs the 18z looked the same way until the northern stream energy picked up idk, may still be something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 you may be giving up on it too early look at the energy coming down at 5H at 156 hrs the 18z looked the same way until the northern stream energy picked up idk, may still be something Maybe...I just feel suppression is more likely than a developing coastal system...Theres still lot to be figured out though with the storm rolling thru now and then Saturday so maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Maybe...I just feel suppression is more likely than a developing coastal system...Theres still lot to be figured out though with the storm rolling thru now and then Saturday so maybe. it did miss the connection this run, but made it at 18z hey, the ducks are on the pond with plenty of time, so we'll wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Maybe...I just feel suppression is more likely than a developing coastal system...Theres still lot to be figured out though with the storm rolling thru now and then Saturday so maybe. The GFS ensemble members had a variety of tracks from a lakes cutter to suppression to something in between. This storm is far from determined, probably another 36 hours before the model has a good general idea of the timing of the key features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 this GFS run is depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Maybe...I just feel suppression is more likely than a developing coastal system...Theres still lot to be figured out though with the storm rolling thru now and then Saturday so maybe. This one is way out in model land. I couldn't care less what any model shows at such a long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 this GFS run is depressing time for the Euro to change your attitude and if not that, the GFS in 6 hours maybe the draw to this hobby is the same one as gambling, but in this one you can keep coming back to the table even after you're broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 time for the Euro to change your attitude and if not that, the GFS in 6 hours maybe the draw to this hobby is the same one as gambling, but in this one you can keep coming back to the table even after you're broke I should start a 12-step program for weather....no seriously...I should....we have a degenerative disease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 strung out mess....we'll have plenty of time to follow this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I still think this threat will come back as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I still think this threat will come back as we get closer. it better. According to zwyts..winter is over after this last threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 it better. According to zwyts..winter is over after this last threat winter will start up in February...December sucks anyway...at least you got 2 epic storms already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 it better. According to zwyts..winter is over after this last threat You had a pretty good winter at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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