Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Can you think of a similar system that's delivered heavy (>6") snow to us? Where both the sfc and upper low track so far to the south? OB brought up the Nov 2002 storm, but even that had and elongated trough axis that extended well into the Lakes. The wetter models seem to be extending this trowal like feature way to the NW of the H5/7 centers, and it seems a little meteorologically suspect to me. True i had the Dec 2007 storm in mind but then i realized it tracked up the App mountains. Storms like these are always hard on the models just like many others in the past few years as we've seen. So again, i rather just wait till it becomes more an observation thing to really recognize how much will actually fall, the duration and the strength. Any differences seen right now as compared to what the models showed? (observations...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 LOVE IT KLIT 251853Z COR 04016KT 2SM -TSFZRA BR OVC009CB 00/M02 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 05028/1754 TSB12 SLP100 OCNL LTGIC SW-W TS SW-W MOV N P0009 T00001022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 True i had the Dec 2007 storm in mind but then i realized it tracked up the App mountains. Storms like these are always hard on the models just like many others in the past few years as we've seen. So again, i rather just wait till it becomes more an observation thing to really recognize how much will actually fall, the duration and the strength. Any differences seen right now as compared to what the models showed? (observations...) See the above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol ACTUALLY MODELS ARE CLOSE IN BRINGING BIG SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT...PUTTING DOWN A LOT OF SNOW...AND THEN LEAVING RAPIDLY LATE TOMORROW. SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO GUSTS WILL PROBABLY MEET OUR BLIZZARD CRITERIA. EVEN IF THEY DONT QUITE MAKE IT...LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL RESULT IN A HUGE IMPACT. THINGS MAY NOT BE QUITE SO BAD NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT AND SO GAVE THEM WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Congrats to Kokomo on the blizzard warning. Now to see if it will verify. I'm hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 IND going gangbusters in the zones: MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDIANAPOLIS 203 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ..BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY TONIGHT...VERY WINDY. CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY VERY WINDY. SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 9 TO 10 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 11 TO 13 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That's a top 10 storm for IND. Of course their big snowstorm history is kinda lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z NAM stronger aloft at 6 than the 12z and has nudged the sfc low to the NE as is consonant with sfc observations. Coverage of the pcpn looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 IND going with 10 to 14 inches with latest BLIZZARD WARNING. Will be surprised if this verifies for us here in Southern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks like the sfc low has been shifted 25-40 miles east at 15. Big implications for STL although it's basically nowcasting time for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That's a top 10 storm for IND. Of course their big snowstorm history is kinda lousy. Snow Storms 9 inches or Greater for the Indianapolis Area in December Length of period: 3 days Years: 1884-2012 Rank Value Ending Date 1 13.0 12/20/1973 2 10.1 12/24/2004 3 10.0 12/31/1895 4 9.6 12/ 7/1977 Snow Storms 9 inches of Greater for the Indianapolis Area Length of period: 3 days Years: 1884-2012 Rank Value Ending Date 1 16.1 2/18/1910 2 15.5 1/27/1978 3 13.2 2/29/1984 4 13.0 12/20/1973 5 12.8 1/ 4/1996 6 12.6 1/28/2009 7 12.5 1/14/1968, 2/26/1965 9 12.3 3/21/1906 10 11.8 3/21/1996 11 11.5 1/ 1/1974, 1/16/1965 13 11.0 1/ 2/1999 14 10.9 1/12/1895 15 10.3 2/23/1912 16 10.1 12/24/2004 17 10.0 12/31/1895 18 9.6 12/ 7/1977 19 9.3 2/24/2003, 10/20/1989 20 9.2 1/ 8/1969 EDIT: A very brief disco from them this afternoon considering what's about to hit their forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 H5 low actually gets into KY this run by 24. Looks like the QPF distribution has expanded north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks like the sfc low has been shifted 25-40 miles east at 15. Big implications for STL although it's basically nowcasting time for those folks. Through 39 hours its definitely further west than the 6z Nam and 0z Nam as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Can you think of a similar system that's delivered heavy (>6") snow to us? Where both the sfc and upper low track so far to the south? OB brought up the Nov 2002 storm, but even that had and elongated trough axis that extended well into the Lakes. The wetter models seem to be extending this trowal like feature way to the NW of the H5/7 centers, and it seems a little meteorologically suspect to me. I'm still going with 2-4" for Toronto. Take it to the bank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Precip shield is north-northwest a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Stronger sfc. reflection further north... precip may be a bit north too to my untrained eye. Phases earlier as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Through 39 hours its definitely further west than the 6z Nam and 0z Nam as well. Actually a pretty significant jump north with the track of the upper level low. This is probably going to be a sweet run for us. Alas, it is the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Stronger sfc. reflection further north... precip may be a bit north too to my untrained eye. Phases earlier as well Your eyes do not deceive you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ticks to the east, ticks to the west...so are the days of our lives with this one for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That's a definite NW shift here... 6" reaches the SEMI border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Actually a pretty significant jump north with the track of the upper level low. This is probably going to be a sweet run for us. Alas, it is the 18z NAM Dont sweat it canuck, just dont look at the worst and hope for the best lol so far it initialized according to current observations and its less than 24 hours out so dont worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Think this run might be 6"+ for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 it's basically nowcast time for anyone west of I-75... interesting to look at though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Think this run might be 6"+ for LAF. No way, I won't let that happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Dont sweat it canuck, just dont look at the worst and hope for the best lol so far it initialized according to current observations and its less than 24 hours out so dont worry. I'll be keeping a close eye on how the system develops during the evening. If the earlier/more rapid deepening of the upper low becomes apparent, the 18z NAM might just be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM may need a new pair of briefs after that........... I always pictured the NAM as more the thong/banana hammock type. Willing to let it all hang out, not much modesty. Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks like it's going to be jackpot city or close to it here at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'll be keeping a close eye on how the system develops during the evening. If the earlier/more rapid deepening of the upper low becomes apparent, the 18z NAM might just be on to something. Yes same, after the previous winters i've learned to wait till observations time to really put faith in the models. It is already down to 997mb is it not right? Havent been paying attention recently, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This run of the NAM seems to be colder than the 12Z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'll be keeping a close eye on how the system develops during the evening. If the earlier/more rapid deepening of the upper low becomes apparent, the 18z NAM might just be on to something. And ultimately up north its evident in the timing of the phase... 18z is a good 5-6 hours quicker with it and it pays off for those riding the northern fringes like myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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