December 26 - 27 Winter Storm III

[Snowstorms]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

1040 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SNOW/WINTER STORM UPDATE...

.UPDATE...

AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT THIS MORNING`S 12Z NAM AND GFS

OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO COME

TOGETHER TO FORM A CONSENSUS WITH THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND SPEED

OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN GENERAL...THE

CONSENSUS TRACK AND SPEED ARE A TAD FURTHER WEST...AND JUST A HAIR

SLOWER THAN THE 06Z SOLUTIONS. THIS MAKES GOOD METEOROLOGICAL

SENSE...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

HAS LARGELY STOPPED DIGGING...AND IS BEGINNING ITS PIVOT ACROSS

THE ARLATEX THIS MORNING. IT WOULD FOLLOW THAT THE UPPER LOW

SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY THIS

EVENING...WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER

LOW CENTER.

Not sure if anyone already posted this but i'd thought i just let you guys know. Storm looks quite impressive on the water vapor and radar maps, quite the moisture.

[BowMeHunter]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:11 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Bowme, my savior. Would you still say north of 3/4 inch?

0.75" give or take take 0.05" would be by guess. hopefully I'm wrong and its closer .90" again.. Enjoy man! its been a long time coming.

[Powerball]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:12 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Who knew Nashville was in NE Georgia now.

[Chicago WX]

Low is in the middle of TN at 24 hours, trust me.

[buckeye]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:16 PM, Powerball said:

Who knew Nashville was n NE Georgia now.

hey it's christmas...no need to be a smartazz

i posted the plymouth map above I was referring to

SORRY NW....my bad

[Snowstorms]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:15 PM, BowMeHunter said:

0.75" give or take take 0.05" would be by guess. hopefully I'm wrong and its closer .90" again.. Enjoy man! its been a long time coming.

That would equate to 6-9 inches using 10:1 and 13:1 snow ratios which is still not bad and better than the GGEM/RGEM most other models. Thanks!

[snowstormcanuck]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:14 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Merry Christmas to you all...

12z ECMWF Text List

  Reveal hidden contents

STL:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.9 1016 67 69 0.02 546 533

PAH:

WED 00Z 26-DEC 2.7 1.2 1016 66 79 0.01 554 541
WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.8 -0.1 1007 88 100 0.38 549 544
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.3 -4.7 1005 90 99 0.71 541 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.4 -5.3 1011 81 88 0.30 545 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.9 -5.1 1017 80 25 0.01 552 539

DEC:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.4 -5.9 1016 70 71 0.01 546 533
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.2 -6.7 1015 69 84 0.02 545 533

VPZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.1 -6.3 1016 71 85 0.01 545 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -7.6 1017 75 91 0.03 545 531

LAF:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -5.4 1015 70 81 0.01 547 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -4.7 1013 78 97 0.17 544 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -7.7 1016 79 92 0.11 545 532

IND:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.4 -2.5 1011 82 98 0.08 547 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.7 -4.0 1009 90 99 0.49 543 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.0 -8.7 1014 87 81 0.18 544 533

BMG:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -1.5 1008 83 100 0.31 546 540
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -4.6 1007 88 97 0.59 542 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.4 -8.4 1014 85 76 0.14 545 534

MIE:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.9 -2.6 1013 80 93 0.03 548 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.2 -3.6 1009 92 99 0.45 543 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.9 -8.7 1012 90 86 0.25 543 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.5 -7.8 1016 86 44 0.01 548 535

OKK:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.1 -4.2 1015 81 86 0.01 547 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -3.9 1011 89 98 0.26 543 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.0 -8.7 1014 87 94 0.20 544 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.9 -7.1 1017 85 36 0.01 549 535

FWA:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -5.1 1012 89 99 0.19 544 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.5 -8.9 1014 86 96 0.26 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.9 -7.4 1016 84 57 0.02 546 534

GRR:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.9 -5.9 1018 72 95 0.02 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.7 -5.7 1018 76 86 0.01 544 530

BTL:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -7.2 1016 69 71 0.01 545 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -7.3 1017 79 98 0.09 543 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.9 -6.2 1017 82 79 0.03 545 531

MOP:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -9.9 1020 66 19 0.01 546 530
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.9 -6.7 1019 73 80 0.01 544 529
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -5.9 1019 78 95 0.02 543 528

PTK:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -6.4 1017 70 66 0.01 546 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.3 1016 79 99 0.14 544 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.8 1015 82 88 0.12 543 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -7.2 1017 86 77 0.03 545 531
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.4 -5.8 1019 75 45 0.01 548 533

DTW:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.1 -6.2 1016 76 90 0.03 547 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.7 1014 83 99 0.25 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -8.2 1014 83 83 0.12 543 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.5 -7.5 1017 85 72 0.02 545 532

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.8 -6.1 1016 73 86 0.02 547 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.9 -7.4 1014 82 98 0.24 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.9 1014 85 82 0.18 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.2 -7.6 1016 87 78 0.03 544 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.3 -6.0 1018 74 44 0.01 548 533

JXN:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -7.0 1016 72 83 0.02 546 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.5 -8.0 1016 81 99 0.16 543 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.0 -7.1 1016 82 89 0.05 544 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.9 -6.8 1019 83 64 0.01 547 532

TDZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.3 -5.9 1013 84 98 0.11 546 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.2 -8.4 1012 88 100 0.41 543 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -8.5 1013 86 77 0.09 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.2 -8.2 1017 85 63 0.01 547 533

DAY:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 -0.6 1011 83 98 0.13 550 541
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -3.2 1006 91 100 0.57 544 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.0 -6.4 1008 90 96 0.16 542 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.9 -7.8 1013 88 63 0.03 545 535

HAO:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.5 -0.3 1009 85 100 0.31 550 543
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -3.3 1004 90 93 0.68 543 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -5.7 1008 87 95 0.11 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -8.3 1014 85 50 0.02 547 536

CMH:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -0.1 1013 79 96 0.08 551 541
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -1.6 1006 88 100 0.54 545 541
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -3.8 1005 88 95 0.16 542 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.4 -7.3 1009 92 77 0.03 544 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.5 -8.4 1016 87 55 0.01 549 536

CLE:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -3.1 1013 79 99 0.11 548 538
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -6.0 1009 89 99 0.53 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.3 -7.2 1009 87 94 0.17 542 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.1 -8.6 1014 85 76 0.05 544 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.9 -7.5 1017 81 48 0.01 548 535
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.1 -6.1 1020 82 21 0.01 551 535

YKF:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.1 -5.7 1017 64 99 0.06 546 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.1 -5.6 1013 82 98 0.27 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.5 -7.9 1015 83 97 0.15 541 529
THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.5 1015 74 72 0.02 542 530

YYZ:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.4 -5.9 1018 70 91 0.04 547 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.9 -6.0 1014 82 97 0.25 543 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.4 -8.1 1014 85 97 0.29 540 529
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.1 -8.3 1015 78 73 0.05 541 529

Damn, it caved. Well, at least that number matches the synoptics better and doesn't keep this gnawing open question about a larger storm.

[jhamps10]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:14 PM, B-Rent said:

Continuity.

then watch Lincoln not do a thing just to make it look stupid

[Powerball]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:17 PM, buckeye said:

hey it's christmas...no need to be a smartazz

i posted the plymouth map above I was referring to

SORRY NW....my bad

It's all in good fun.

You're still golden in terms of snowfall.

[jhamps10]

and lole and behold what did lincoln just do.... issue a blizzard warning!

[Snowstorms]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:17 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Damn, it caved. Well, at least that number matches the synoptics better and doesn't keep this gnawing open question about a larger storm.

Depending what the 0z models show tonight and the RGEM/GGEM willl depend if EC decides to issue a watch of any sort. Maybe a WSS is possible, but for now i'm going for a 5-8 inches call across the region.

[toronto blizzard]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:21 PM, Snowstorms said:

Depending what the 0z models show tonight and the RGEM/GGEM willl depend if EC decides to issue a watch of any sort. Maybe a WSS is possible, but for now i'm going for a 5-8 inches call across the region.

Sounds very reasonable

[Chicago WX]

Last six runs of the Euro QPF totals for IND and LAF.

IND

0z 12/23: 0.65"

12z 12/23: 0.63"

0z 12/24: 0.92"

12z 12/24: 0.67"

0z 12/25: 0.85"

12z 12/25: 0.75"

LAF

0z 12/23: 0.36"

12z 12/23: 0.34"

0z 12/24: 0.51"

12z 12/24: 0.36"

0z 12/25: 0.35"

12z 12/25: 0.29"

[stormtrackertf]

2hr pressure changes

[IWXwx]

Congrats to Kokomo on the blizzard warning. Now to see if it will verify.

[jhamps10]

This is officially a first for me, never have been under a blizzard warning before.

[Chicago WX]

Second call for Indiana locales. Bumped up a little for IND, MIE, and OKK. Will try to go final...and narrow the range after the 0z runs tonight.

LAF: 2-5"

OKK: 4-7"

IND: 6-9"

MIE: 6-9"

FWA: 3-6"

[snowstormcanuck]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:21 PM, Snowstorms said:

Depending what the 0z models show tonight and the RGEM/GGEM willl depend if EC decides to issue a watch of any sort. Maybe a WSS is possible, but for now i'm going for a 5-8 inches call across the region.

I doubt they hoist headlines here. The RGEM/GGEM are still very dry and that's what they'll ride them until the bitter end.

And now that the very wet models have capitulated (NAM/EURO) I'm a little uneasy because the drier models UKIE/GEM are holding steady. Add on top of that an overall synoptic setup that's unusual for significant snow here, and I'll stick with my 2-5" call for the area, with maybe 4-7" down Hamilton/Niagara way being closer to the storm plus LES.

[B-Rent]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:36 PM, Chicago WX said:

Second call for Indiana locales. Bumped up a little for IND, MIE, and OKK. Will try to go final...and narrow the range after the 0z runs tonight.

LAF: 2-5"

OKK: 4-7"

IND: 6-9"

MIE: 6-9"

FWA: 3-6"

Just got told to expect a 16 hour shift tomorrow. I was planning on measuring to try and verify but doesn't look like I will be.

[LanceJA91]

I don't recall ever having a blizzard waring in my 21 years down here!?

[snowstormcanuck]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:23 PM, toronto blizzard said:

Sounds very reasonable

You guys are just like me when I was younger. Always shooting for the stars and almost always coming up disappointed.

[Snowstorms]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:39 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

I doubt they hoist headlines here. The RGEM/GGEM are still very dry and that's what they'll ride them until the bitter end.

And now that the very wet models have capitulated (NAM/EURO) I'm a little uneasy because the drier models UKIE/GEM are holding steady. Add on top of that an overall synoptic setup that's unusual for significant snow here, and I'll stick with my 2-5" call for the area, with maybe 4-7" down Hamilton/Niagara way being closer to the storm plus LES.

Well lets see what the 18z RGEM and 0z GGEM/UKIE show tonight, probably the last hope we have before this storm begins. Then again, Euro has held it fairly steadily as well, despite the QPF drop. Though 0.60 to 0.70 seems more reasonable as compared to the other models. Has the updated UKIE come out yet?

EC rides the GGEM/RGEM hard, no doubt. If all sudden it showed 6-10 inches they would immediately put some sort of Watch up lol.

[snowstormcanuck]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:43 PM, Snowstorms said:

Well lets see what the 18z RGEM and 0z GGEM/UKIE show tonight, probably the last hope we have before this storm begins. Then again, Euro has held it fairly steadily as well, despite the QPF drop. Though 0.60 to 0.70 seems more reasonable as compared to the other models. Has the updated UKIE come out yet?

EC rides the GGEM/RGEM hard, no doubt. If all sudden it showed 6-10 inches they would immediately put some sort of Watch up lol.

Unless they show a fundamental shift in how this storm is going to evolve, I can't see myself changing my call upwards by more than an inch or so.

UKMET has about 0.25-0.30" liquid here.

[Snowstorms]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:46 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Unless they show a fundamental shift in how this storm is going to evolve, I can't see myself changing my call upwards by more than an inch or so.

UKMET has about 0.25-0.30" liquid here.

Right now its the, Euro/Nam, GGEM/UKIE and the GFS is somewhat in the middle. Quite the divergence for a storm about 24 hours away. The GHD 2011 had such a similar output and in the end it turned out different than the models had originally thought, so again, i just want to see the 0z models tonight before making my call.

But yeah, i think a 3-6 inch call seems more legit.

[snowstormcanuck]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:50 PM, Snowstorms said:

Right now its the, Euro/Nam, GGEM/UKIE and the GFS is somewhat in the middle. Quite the divergence for a storm about 24 hours away. The GHD 2011 had such a similar output and in the end it turned out different than the models had originally thought, so again, i just want to see the 0z models tonight before making my call.

But yeah, i think a 3-6 inch call seems more legit.

Sorry, I'm confused. Are you going 5-8" or 3-6"?

[IWXwx]

Interesting tidbit from IND's website. They've only had 20 storms with 9" or more since 1884 and only 4 of those were in December. They're thinking about 8" for Indy, but if they hit 9", it would be rare air indeed.

[PatrickSumner]

Shocked to have a blizzard warning here in South Central Indiana...hoping it verifies...

[Snowstorms]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:52 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Sorry, I'm confused. Are you going 5-8" or 3-6"?

Your post encouraged me to look over the data thus far again and i'm going for a 3-6" inch call now lol. 3-6" as my low call and 5-8" inch as my high call given the huge model discrepancy right now.

[snowstormcanuck]

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:58 PM, Snowstorms said:

Your post encouraged me to look over the data thus far again and i'm going for a 3-6" inch call now lol. 3-6" as my low call and 5-8" inch as my high call given the huge model discrepancy right now.

Can you think of a similar system that's delivered heavy (>6") snow to us? Where both the sfc and upper low track so far to the south? OB brought up the Nov 2002 storm, but even that had and elongated trough axis that extended well into the Lakes. The wetter models seem to be extending this trowal like feature way to the NW of the H5/7 centers, and it seems a little meteorologically suspect to me.

[snowstormcanuck]

Looking at the SPC 18z meso-analysis page, H5 trough seems to be modeled well by the GFS/NAM. Sfc low appears a mb or two stronger and a little further to the NE in the case of what the NAM was progging.