Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,758
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vifin10
    Newest Member
    Vifin10
    Joined

December 26 - 27 Winter Storm III


snowstormcanuck

Recommended Posts

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

1040 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SNOW/WINTER STORM UPDATE...

.UPDATE...

AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT THIS MORNING`S 12Z NAM AND GFS

OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO COME

TOGETHER TO FORM A CONSENSUS WITH THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND SPEED

OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN GENERAL...THE

CONSENSUS TRACK AND SPEED ARE A TAD FURTHER WEST...AND JUST A HAIR

SLOWER THAN THE 06Z SOLUTIONS. THIS MAKES GOOD METEOROLOGICAL

SENSE...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

HAS LARGELY STOPPED DIGGING...AND IS BEGINNING ITS PIVOT ACROSS

THE ARLATEX THIS MORNING. IT WOULD FOLLOW THAT THE UPPER LOW

SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY THIS

EVENING...WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER

LOW CENTER.

Not sure if anyone already posted this but i'd thought i just let you guys know. Storm looks quite impressive on the water vapor and radar maps, quite the moisture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 982
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 12/25/2012 at 6:15 PM, BowMeHunter said:

0.75" give or take take 0.05" would be by guess. hopefully I'm wrong and its closer .90" again.. Enjoy man! its been a long time coming.

That would equate to 6-9 inches using 10:1 and 13:1 snow ratios which is still not bad and better than the GGEM/RGEM most other models. Thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:14 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Merry Christmas to you all... :santa:

12z ECMWF Text List

  Reveal hidden contents

Damn, it caved. Well, at least that number matches the synoptics better and doesn't keep this gnawing open question about a larger storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:17 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Damn, it caved. Well, at least that number matches the synoptics better and doesn't keep this gnawing open question about a larger storm.

Depending what the 0z models show tonight and the RGEM/GGEM willl depend if EC decides to issue a watch of any sort. Maybe a WSS is possible, but for now i'm going for a 5-8 inches call across the region.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:21 PM, Snowstorms said:

Depending what the 0z models show tonight and the RGEM/GGEM willl depend if EC decides to issue a watch of any sort. Maybe a WSS is possible, but for now i'm going for a 5-8 inches call across the region.

I doubt they hoist headlines here. The RGEM/GGEM are still very dry and that's what they'll ride them until the bitter end.

And now that the very wet models have capitulated (NAM/EURO) I'm a little uneasy because the drier models UKIE/GEM are holding steady. Add on top of that an overall synoptic setup that's unusual for significant snow here, and I'll stick with my 2-5" call for the area, with maybe 4-7" down Hamilton/Niagara way being closer to the storm plus LES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:36 PM, Chicago WX said:

Second call for Indiana locales. Bumped up a little for IND, MIE, and OKK. Will try to go final...and narrow the range after the 0z runs tonight.

LAF: 2-5"

OKK: 4-7"

IND: 6-9"

MIE: 6-9"

FWA: 3-6"

Just got told to expect a 16 hour shift tomorrow. I was planning on measuring to try and verify but doesn't look like I will be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:39 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

I doubt they hoist headlines here. The RGEM/GGEM are still very dry and that's what they'll ride them until the bitter end.

And now that the very wet models have capitulated (NAM/EURO) I'm a little uneasy because the drier models UKIE/GEM are holding steady. Add on top of that an overall synoptic setup that's unusual for significant snow here, and I'll stick with my 2-5" call for the area, with maybe 4-7" down Hamilton/Niagara way being closer to the storm plus LES.

Well lets see what the 18z RGEM and 0z GGEM/UKIE show tonight, probably the last hope we have before this storm begins. Then again, Euro has held it fairly steadily as well, despite the QPF drop. Though 0.60 to 0.70 seems more reasonable as compared to the other models. Has the updated UKIE come out yet?

EC rides the GGEM/RGEM hard, no doubt. If all sudden it showed 6-10 inches they would immediately put some sort of Watch up lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:43 PM, Snowstorms said:

Well lets see what the 18z RGEM and 0z GGEM/UKIE show tonight, probably the last hope we have before this storm begins. Then again, Euro has held it fairly steadily as well, despite the QPF drop. Though 0.60 to 0.70 seems more reasonable as compared to the other models. Has the updated UKIE come out yet?

EC rides the GGEM/RGEM hard, no doubt. If all sudden it showed 6-10 inches they would immediately put some sort of Watch up lol.

Unless they show a fundamental shift in how this storm is going to evolve, I can't see myself changing my call upwards by more than an inch or so.

UKMET has about 0.25-0.30" liquid here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:46 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Unless they show a fundamental shift in how this storm is going to evolve, I can't see myself changing my call upwards by more than an inch or so.

UKMET has about 0.25-0.30" liquid here.

Right now its the, Euro/Nam, GGEM/UKIE and the GFS is somewhat in the middle. Quite the divergence for a storm about 24 hours away. The GHD 2011 had such a similar output and in the end it turned out different than the models had originally thought, so again, i just want to see the 0z models tonight before making my call.

But yeah, i think a 3-6 inch call seems more legit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:50 PM, Snowstorms said:

Right now its the, Euro/Nam, GGEM/UKIE and the GFS is somewhat in the middle. Quite the divergence for a storm about 24 hours away. The GHD 2011 had such a similar output and in the end it turned out different than the models had originally thought, so again, i just want to see the 0z models tonight before making my call.

But yeah, i think a 3-6 inch call seems more legit.

Sorry, I'm confused. Are you going 5-8" or 3-6"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:52 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Sorry, I'm confused. Are you going 5-8" or 3-6"?

Your post encouraged me to look over the data thus far again and i'm going for a 3-6" inch call now lol. 3-6" as my low call and 5-8" inch as my high call given the huge model discrepancy right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/25/2012 at 6:58 PM, Snowstorms said:

Your post encouraged me to look over the data thus far again and i'm going for a 3-6" inch call now lol. 3-6" as my low call and 5-8" inch as my high call given the huge model discrepancy right now.

Can you think of a similar system that's delivered heavy (>6") snow to us? Where both the sfc and upper low track so far to the south? OB brought up the Nov 2002 storm, but even that had and elongated trough axis that extended well into the Lakes. The wetter models seem to be extending this trowal like feature way to the NW of the H5/7 centers, and it seems a little meteorologically suspect to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...