SpartyOn Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 and 50 miles more NW the low goes...DET area gets 6-9" you get 4-6". It's a now-cast storm. will see. I've seen storms shift NW or SE last minute...I can see both scenarios. This. I think u would have to be west of US23 to get the shaft here. The I94 - I75 stands to see the jackpot 5-8". NAM looks yummy and like my new Christmas watch keeps ticking away slightly NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Second straight run of the NAM with more reasonable numbers for YYZ: 0.50-0.75". EURO now on its own with the heavier input of juice. Given how far south everything tracks, I think even the NAM might be being too generous. We'll see how the rest of the 12z suite looks, but I think 2-5 is a good prelim figure for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Winter Storm Warning in effect now for CLE area, going with 8-12". Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM gives my city 4-5 inches. After going way SE last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 HPC is finally highlighting an ice area, along the Ohio river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Right now, I'm liking 2-5" for Detroit as well. Last minute trends well decide whether we're on the low or high side of that. If Euro holds serves with at least 0.4, I'd go on the higher side of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 sorry, LAF, DET, STL...what a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 sorry, LAF, DET, STL...what a shift. oh to wish they had the offical observation site downtown instead of all the way out at lambert... really going to hurt the history books saying of this in STL with maybe 1" but downtown having 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 and 50 miles more NW the low goes...DET area gets 6-9" you get 4-6". It's a now-cast storm. will see. I've seen storms shift NW or SE last minute...I can see both scenarios. I don't think so. It's only a smidgen more moist than the 06z run and a smidgen drier than the 00z run. I'm still liking my call of 2-4" for Detroit, 4-7" for Toronto, 6-10"+ for Columbus, Evansville, Indianapolis and Cleveland. It's better than nothing, doesn't mean I'm thrilled about it. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 RGEM moved away from its whiff scenario, but still nothing spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 RGEM moved away from its whiff scenario, but still nothing spectacular. looks like about 5-6'' to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM gives my city 4-5 inches.After going way SE last night. You guys deserve it. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12Z GFS appears to be shifting the deformation axis a bit to the NW, low is just a smidge further NW as well. Can pretty clearly see the center of mid-level circulation on radar between Abilene and the TX/OK border. Surface low seems to be over Trinity, TX at 998 mb. Coincidentally, a couple of tornado reports a few miles from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 looks like about 5-6'' to my eyes you need your eyes recalibrated. By 12z Thu, the RGEM has a smidgen over 5mm of QPF, which assuming a little better than 10:1 ratios would be 5-7cm or 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Doing some mid morning reading, PAH seems to have lost confidence in the wind needed for Blizzard, went with continuity. AM NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HITTING BLIZZARD WIND LEVELS OF 35 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS TO THAT LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEG AND LZK HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING...SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO JOIN IN ON THAT PARTY. EVEN IF THE WINDS DO NOT QUITE GET THERE...THE IMPACT WILL BE SUCH THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE WARRANTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE SAME TIMES AS FOR THE WATCH...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPS AS SUSPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS definitely an improvement over the last run in the NW fringes... that precip shield practically moves itself 75 miles further NW around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 12Z GFS appears to be shifting the deformation axis a bit to the NW, low is just a smidge further NW as well. Can pretty clearly see the center of mid-level circulation on radar between Abilene and the TX/OK border. Surface low seems to be over Trinity, TX at 998 mb. Coincidentally, a couple of tornado reports a few miles from there. It's going to be an improvement on the 6z run, just like the NAM was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 HPC is finally highlighting an ice area, along the Ohio river. I've been knocking that for a couple days now. Kind of glad they see the threat but also a bit worried because I would rather just go over to plain rain here than ice. That is a lot of QPF to fall as ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Doing some mid morning reading, PAH seems to have lost confidence in the wind needed for Blizzard, went with continuity. AM NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HITTING BLIZZARD WIND LEVELS OF 35 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS TO THAT LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEG AND LZK HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING...SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO JOIN IN ON THAT PARTY. EVEN IF THE WINDS DO NOT QUITE GET THERE...THE IMPACT WILL BE SUCH THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE WARRANTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE SAME TIMES AS FOR THE WATCH...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPS AS SUSPECTED. I'd have to agree with this. I'm not seeing the wind criteria being met at this point... but right on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Models are now closing off H5 in Southern Arkansas then bombing for a bit, moving it more NNNE for a bit. all good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Small ticks NW (precip shield or track early on) are pretty huge for here, relatively speaking. 12z NAM and GFS delivered in that regard...but, it's just coming in line with what the Euro has been advertising for LAF. IND, MIE, CMH, DAY, CLE, etc are going to get it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My call for a few select points in central IN. Might have to revise/tighten after 0Z data. LAF: 2-5" IND: 7-10" OKK: 3-6" BMG: 7-10" MIE: 6-9" Preferring a 12Z GFS/0Z Euro blend for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Small ticks NW (precip shield or track early on) are pretty huge for here, relatively speaking. 12z NAM and GFS delivered in that regard...but, it's just coming in line with what the Euro has been advertising for LAF. IND, MIE, CMH, DAY, CLE, etc are going to get it good. I'm really starting to sweat freezing rain here in CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Gotta love these NW shifts on the models on Christmas morning. Definitely more NW with the snow is the 12z GFS than the 00z and 06z. If Euro holds steady with 0.8-0.9'' QPF it will hard to not go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS had nudged the qpf shield westward. I think we have hit rock bottom SE MI folks and are on a slight rebound lol.....we just need the SLIGHTEST nudge west now and the river communities will be in 0.50"+ on both the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Models are now closing off H5 in Southern Arkansas then bombing for a bit, moving it more NNNE for a bit. all good signs. latest RAP indicating a 540 dam closed contour over southern AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My call for a few select points in central IN. Might have to revise/tighten after 0Z data. LAF: 2-5" IND: 7-10" OKK: 3-6" BMG: 7-10" MIE: 6-9" Preferring a 12Z GFS/0Z Euro blend for this. Agree with this. I'm really starting to sweat freezing rain here in CMH. Eh, I think CMH stays majorly frozen. But could be quite the variation across the area in p-types for awhile. 12z NAM has warm spike at 27 hrs at 900mb of 1.9C, before crashing. Looks sorta strange considering the hours before and after...but does coincide with the heaviest 6 hr period of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Small ticks NW (precip shield or track early on) are pretty huge for here, relatively speaking. 12z NAM and GFS delivered in that regard...but, it's just coming in line with what the Euro has been advertising for LAF. IND, MIE, CMH, DAY, CLE, etc are going to get it good. Good luck! I'm riding this one out in Fickle. I expect 3-6" IMBY. Going to be impossible to measure with the wind regardless. I'm expecting 2 to 3 foot drifts in places too. It'll look intense at least, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nice spread across Tippecanoe County on the 12z NAM clown map. 2-3" in the NW corner to 6" in the SE corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Good luck! I'm riding this one out in Fickle. I expect 3-6" IMBY. Going to be impossible to measure with the wind regardless. I'm expecting 2 to 3 foot drifts in places too. It'll look intense at least, lol. Fickle>>>LAF with this one. Seems to be the theme lately. But yeah, good luck to you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.