Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You're right. Here it has 0.7-0.8" QPF through 11z, but <6" of snow. Must think the wind's gonna be shattering a lot of dendrites. Canuck, do you think 6" is a distinct possibility for the GTA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 So very little and conflicting information for southern Ontario. About had enough of this storm -- day 3 of checking for updates and absolutely zero changes/new info. Even the local weather crew on twitter is oddly silent. EC still keeping all of us at 2-4" with 10" in Niagara Region. TWN tweeted "double digit snow totals" along the 401 corridor, that could mean 11cm...or 50cm. How vague. About 10cm, give or take a cm or two, looks good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Snow is starting to rip good about an hour east of Windsor. Went from no flakes in the sky to moderate snow in a few minutes. Mostly fluffy dendrites but some smaller crystals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Canuck, do you think 6" is a distinct possibility for the GTA? I'm going with 3-7" so yeah. Median would be 5" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So very little and conflicting information for southern Ontario. About had enough of this storm -- day 3 of checking for updates and absolutely zero changes/new info. Even the local weather crew on twitter is oddly silent. EC still keeping all of us at 2-4" with 10" in Niagara Region. TWN tweeted "double digit snow totals" along the 401 corridor, that could mean 11cm...or 50cm. How vague. Maybe people are on Christmas vacation? ;-) Yeah, Brett Anderson of accuweather thinks Newmarket might get 15cm (6") meaning I can only assume that in his mind the GTA is in the 6-8" range. EC is eitehr going to score an amazing coup here or they are asleep at the switch. At the very least, there should be a winter storm watch for Toronto given models do indicate the possibility of 6" and the winds could make driving treacherous even if it's less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Snow is starting to rip good about an hour east of Windsor. Went from no flakes in the sky to moderate snow in a few minutes. Mostly fluffy dendrites but some smaller crystals as well. Are you in Chatham? Hopefully this means the snow will start to fall here by 6-7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Maybe people are on Christmas vacation? ;-) Yeah, Brett Anderson of accuweather thinks Newmarket might get 15cm (6") meaning I can only assume that in his mind the GTA is in the 6-8" range. EC is eitehr going to score an amazing coup here or they are asleep at the switch. At the very least, there should be a winter storm watch for Toronto given models do indicate the possibility of 6" and the winds could make driving treacherous even if it's less than that. A possibility is not the evidentiary threshold though. They have to think winter storm conditions are probable (>50%). They obviously do not and I can see why. But I would have at least bumped snowfall amounts to about 10cm. 5-10 range is kind of stupid at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The 14-18" lollipops coming out of IL/IN are a good example of how the hi-res models can be useful in heavy banded precip situations (even if they overdo the coverage). Lower res models have a difficult time picking up on the enhanced banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 A possibility is not the evidentiary threshold though. They have to think winter storm conditions are probable (>50%). They obviously do not and I can see why. But I would have at least bumped snowfall amounts to about 10cm. 5-10 range is kind of stupid at this point. the opposite is happening here...they are saying ~20cms, but I'm guessing no more than 10cm for Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 It might just be because Toledo is kind of on the periphery of all the area radars, but it seems like they've been in a screw hole the last several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Are you in Chatham? Hopefully this means the snow will start to fall here by 6-7pm. Just south of Chatham, yeah. The snow is not accumulating too quickly but visibility is really low and the roads are getting worse by the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 If that's not sleet working it's way much further north than anticipated, CLE is about to get rocked by some probable TSSN. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=cle&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 bonafide snowstorm out there. Powder snow, swirling, blowing, drifting, lowering visib. LOVE IT! We are one of the first areas to get a powder snowstorm this winter. It doesnt plaster to trees like wet snow, but its my FAVORITE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Snowing and blowing in the city of Detroit right now. Looks beautiful and I'm optimistic about a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 According to Chad there are 2-3 foot drifts in Clinton county. Had to shovel the back door, because the drift had closed off the dog door. Several drifts of 1-2 feet in my backyard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 About 10cm, give or take a cm or two, looks good for you. I'll gladly take what i can get but it can seem like at times that 10cm is too low..or too high. Etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Had to shovel the back door, because the drift had closed off the dog door. Several drifts of 1-2 feet in my backyard.. Same. Wind is picking up now with light snow falling. Looks like another bad wreck on I-65 in Lafayette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If that's not sleet working it's way much further north than anticipated, CLE is about to get rocked by some probable TSSN. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=cle&loop=yes It should be snow. It's ripping now. Hoping for the 2-3" rates soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 IND obs from earlier: KIND 261234Z 03017G32KT 1/4SM R05L/2600V6000FT +SN FZFG BKN008 OVC012 M01/M02 A2973 KIND 261328Z 03021G29KT 1/8SM R05L/1400V1800FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M02 A2971 KIND 261446Z 02025G32KT 1/4SM R05L/1400V2400FT SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M02 A2970 KIND 261546Z 02021G29KT 1/2SM R05L/2800V4500FT SN BLSN FZFG OVC010 M02/M02 A2971 Not what you'd call slam dunk blizzard criteria but they may have made it. The visibility came up a little on the 1546z ob but technically it was 3 hours and 12 minutes since the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Storm winding down. Got around 6" here in Se Indiana. Less than forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It might just be because Toledo is kind of on the periphery of all the area radars, but it seems like they've been in a screw hole the last several hours. I have 2" and counting south of Toledo in Bowling Green... here's a local radar that's usually pretty reliable. 15-20 miles west of I-75's getting screwed right now... thankfully I'm still getting moderate/heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 and just like that No Snow to moderate Snow same here in southeastern lapeer county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just for fun I'll be live streaming from my backyard (Oakville, ON), just Southwest of Toronto. Feel free to tune in once the action starts up here: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/harrisale I'll repost this link later with updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 A possibility is not the evidentiary threshold though. They have to think winter storm conditions are probable (>50%). They obviously do not and I can see why. But I would have at least bumped snowfall amounts to about 10cm. 5-10 range is kind of stupid at this point. I have noticed sometimes, at the end of the storm, the final measurements are often close to what EC "predicts" prior to the storm. Has me suspicious. They might do that to maintain their "reputation" but either way the pressure will fall on them in the end. I think atleast a Watch should be issued, if the 18z RGEM is suddenly different, i can bet you a million dollars it will change, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 We're sitting pretty here near KARB. Moderate to heavy snow and blowing pretty good. Not sure how long it will last but this feels like the first bonafide daytime snow storm in a long, long while here. Some very pretty large flakes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Took this about 20 minutes ago, starting to look quite white outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Got a dusting here, I hope everyone enjoy's there snow. Should stick around for a week or so in most spots at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like some backbuilding by Kankakee this afternoon. Some light pixie LES falling here at the 1 o'clock hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Higher returns are streaming westward in from northern Ohio in association with the trowal. Everything seems to be on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I have noticed sometimes, at the end of the storm, the final measurements are often close to what EC "predicts" prior to the storm. Has me suspicious. They might do that to maintain their "reputation" but either way the pressure will fall on them in the end. I think atleast a Watch should be issued, if the 18z RGEM is suddenly different, i can bet you a million dollars it will change, lol. It's too late for a watch at this point. It's warning or nothing. And it does not look like 15 or more cm in 12 hours or less is imminent or occurring. It's a crap shoot possibility at this point. They don't issue warnings for those. Only way we get a headline out of this is after 2-3 hours of +SN it becomes apparent that the criteria will be met. Dont expect a WSW anytime before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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