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December 26 - 27 Winter Storm III


snowstormcanuck

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 414 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 .LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SKIM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK. CLOSER TO THE LOW...A MIX OF SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-251715- /O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0002.121226T0600Z-121227T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0002.121226T0600Z-121227T0600Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE- DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK- MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... BROOKVILLE...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY... BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA... SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA 414 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 1 AM CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

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Warning from Wilmington for North Columbus area... They appear to be calling for freezing line to be very close (just north of Columbus) for some of the day... Very similar to what Cleveland said although no mention of mixing...

The upgrade to a warnings was for all counties along and north of I-70. They also added another tier of counties south of I-70 to a watch. The updated Columbus zone forecast makes no mention of mix whatsoever now, but they are calling for highs in the mid-30s Wednesday. Not sure if that will verify or not, but that could limit accumulations some if it happens. Snowfall totals are up to an inch Christmas night, 4-6 on Wednesday and another 1-3 Wednesday night, for a total of 6-10".

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DTX talking about how even though SE MI will get a glancing blow, deformation band looks fairly healthy with this. Only a 6 hour window of max lift, but cold temps aloft may help ratios as well. Going for 3-5" most of SE MI (except far NW) and 4-7" for far eastern counties, including the immediate DTW area. We shall see!

Climo note: After seeing EIGHT snowstorms of 4"+ in 2010-11 (incl two 10"+), DTW saw just ONE last winter (4.8").

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Good read from IWX AFD re: possible NW move:

SHORT TERM  

/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  

ALL EYES ON MIDWEEK SYSTEM IN WHAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE MOST  

SUBSTANTIAL SNOW EVENT YET THIS SEASON. GREAT CLUSTERING WRT  

DETERMINISTIC MIDLVL FEATURES THROUGH F36..AS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO  

SYSTEM DIGS THROUGH NCNTL TX TO ARKLATEX BY TUE EVE...THEN RAPIDLY  

DEEPENING UNDER INCRSG INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY  

/PRESENTLY ACRS WRN MT/ INCLUSION AS ALREADY INTENSE MIDLVL HGHT  

FALLS ON ORDER OF 140-150 M/12 HRS IN BASE OF TROF BURGEON TO  

170-200 M ACRS TN VLY WED. INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM/NEG TILT TROF  

AXIS CHARACTER LENDS INCRS CREDENCE TO NAM/SREF/WRFARW LEFT OF TRACK  

DEVIATION BYND F36. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS NOTED WRT FEATURE PLACEMENT  

PER DPROG/DT...TYPICALLY OSCILLATING AROUND AND BACK TOWARD 24/12  

UTC SIGNALS WERE NOTED WRT 25/00 UTC DATA...SOLIDARITY ADDING SOME  

CONFIDENCE REGARDING WINTER STORM TRACK/AMOUNTS.  

 

WITH THE LUDICROUS/OVERWROUGHT NAM 24/18 UTC QPF SOLUTION/COBB  

OUTPUT EXPUNGED...THE REMAINING DATA HAS SHOWN A STRONG CLUSTER  

PACKING WRT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VIA MULTI MODEL/MULTI-ACCUM  

ALGORITHMS...WHICH FURTHER EMBOLDENS CONFIDENCE FOR AN UPGRADE OF  

WATCH FOR SERN CWA. QUICK LOOK AT 06 UTC NAM OUTPUT GIVES SIMILAR  

AMOUNTS...WITH ONLY MINUSCULE SEWD TRACK SHIFT.  

 

WHILE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL TOTALS GNRL AT OR BLO SINGULAR SNOW  

HAZARD WARNINGS...EFFECTS OF PATCHY/AREAS OF BLSN AS COLDER PROFILES  

THIS TIME RESULTING IN RATIOS THAT WOULD SUPPORT THIS SECONDARY  

HAZARD. DIPOLE WAVES OF MIDLVL/750 MB FGEN AMID STRONG I285K ISENT  

UPGLIDE WITH SUPPORTIVE OVERLAP OF LOCAL PRES DERIVATIVE AND EXTREME  

PRES ADVECTION SHOULD GIVE RISE TO TRANSIENT BANDING MIDDAY WED  

THROUGH WED AFTN. WITH 7H INVERTED TROFFING INTO NWRN CWA ALONG WITH  

NEG TILT FEATURE AS SFC FEATURES BEGIN SPLIT ACRS APPALACHIA COULD  

BE HARBINGER FOR LATER LEFT OF TRACK SHIFTS...AND HAVE CONTD  

PERIPHERAL WATCH/UNCHANGED...ALLOWING FOR LATER UPG/ADVISORIES/CAN  

AS NEEDED...AND CONCENTRATED TIMING/AMOUNTS ON WHAT SHOULD BE MORE  

ASSURABLE LEAD TIME...AND PRESENTS GOOD FIT IN COMPARO TO NATIONAL  

GUID/SURROUNDING WFO COLLABORATION.

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Looking at a solid 5" here perhaps a little more if the storm will tick to the NW. All on all a great start to the winter season. Might of been slow to start but there is many mentions of snow in the next 7 days. I prefer 5 one inch snows to a monster anyhow.

Hope Santa has been good to you all and have fun with your families.
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Just a bit of a meltdown by me in the other thread...my bad. Anyway, going to ride the Euro to the grave on this one for LAF. Pretty damn good consistency in precip amounts with 4 out of the last 5 runs. If it fails me, well it fails. May not be the biggest snow, but 3-4" would suit me just fine. Good luck to all with this one, and Merry Christmas.

Merry Christmas and I am hoping for a last minute jog but I've settled on 2-4" for Kokomo. Maybe 5" on the far eastern edge. Hopefully we will get ours in January.

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The evening commute tomorrow is going to be insane. I'll be glad most people take the holiday week off from work.

Ironically The Weather Channel has named this storm Euclid, which happens to be the main street of Cleveland.

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