Snowx467 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Warning from Wilmington for North Columbus area... They appear to be calling for freezing line to be very close (just north of Columbus) for some of the day... Very similar to what Cleveland said although no mention of mixing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowx467 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 414 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 .LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SKIM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK. CLOSER TO THE LOW...A MIX OF SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-251715- /O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0002.121226T0600Z-121227T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0002.121226T0600Z-121227T0600Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE- DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK- MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... BROOKVILLE...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY... BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA... SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA 414 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 1 AM CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Warning from Wilmington for North Columbus area... They appear to be calling for freezing line to be very close (just north of Columbus) for some of the day... Very similar to what Cleveland said although no mention of mixing... The upgrade to a warnings was for all counties along and north of I-70. They also added another tier of counties south of I-70 to a watch. The updated Columbus zone forecast makes no mention of mix whatsoever now, but they are calling for highs in the mid-30s Wednesday. Not sure if that will verify or not, but that could limit accumulations some if it happens. Snowfall totals are up to an inch Christmas night, 4-6 on Wednesday and another 1-3 Wednesday night, for a total of 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DTX talking about how even though SE MI will get a glancing blow, deformation band looks fairly healthy with this. Only a 6 hour window of max lift, but cold temps aloft may help ratios as well. Going for 3-5" most of SE MI (except far NW) and 4-7" for far eastern counties, including the immediate DTW area. We shall see! Climo note: After seeing EIGHT snowstorms of 4"+ in 2010-11 (incl two 10"+), DTW saw just ONE last winter (4.8"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Good read from IWX AFD re: possible NW move: SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ ALL EYES ON MIDWEEK SYSTEM IN WHAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE MOST SUBSTANTIAL SNOW EVENT YET THIS SEASON. GREAT CLUSTERING WRT DETERMINISTIC MIDLVL FEATURES THROUGH F36..AS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SYSTEM DIGS THROUGH NCNTL TX TO ARKLATEX BY TUE EVE...THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENING UNDER INCRSG INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY /PRESENTLY ACRS WRN MT/ INCLUSION AS ALREADY INTENSE MIDLVL HGHT FALLS ON ORDER OF 140-150 M/12 HRS IN BASE OF TROF BURGEON TO 170-200 M ACRS TN VLY WED. INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM/NEG TILT TROF AXIS CHARACTER LENDS INCRS CREDENCE TO NAM/SREF/WRFARW LEFT OF TRACK DEVIATION BYND F36. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS NOTED WRT FEATURE PLACEMENT PER DPROG/DT...TYPICALLY OSCILLATING AROUND AND BACK TOWARD 24/12 UTC SIGNALS WERE NOTED WRT 25/00 UTC DATA...SOLIDARITY ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE REGARDING WINTER STORM TRACK/AMOUNTS. WITH THE LUDICROUS/OVERWROUGHT NAM 24/18 UTC QPF SOLUTION/COBB OUTPUT EXPUNGED...THE REMAINING DATA HAS SHOWN A STRONG CLUSTER PACKING WRT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VIA MULTI MODEL/MULTI-ACCUM ALGORITHMS...WHICH FURTHER EMBOLDENS CONFIDENCE FOR AN UPGRADE OF WATCH FOR SERN CWA. QUICK LOOK AT 06 UTC NAM OUTPUT GIVES SIMILAR AMOUNTS...WITH ONLY MINUSCULE SEWD TRACK SHIFT. WHILE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL TOTALS GNRL AT OR BLO SINGULAR SNOW HAZARD WARNINGS...EFFECTS OF PATCHY/AREAS OF BLSN AS COLDER PROFILES THIS TIME RESULTING IN RATIOS THAT WOULD SUPPORT THIS SECONDARY HAZARD. DIPOLE WAVES OF MIDLVL/750 MB FGEN AMID STRONG I285K ISENT UPGLIDE WITH SUPPORTIVE OVERLAP OF LOCAL PRES DERIVATIVE AND EXTREME PRES ADVECTION SHOULD GIVE RISE TO TRANSIENT BANDING MIDDAY WED THROUGH WED AFTN. WITH 7H INVERTED TROFFING INTO NWRN CWA ALONG WITH NEG TILT FEATURE AS SFC FEATURES BEGIN SPLIT ACRS APPALACHIA COULD BE HARBINGER FOR LATER LEFT OF TRACK SHIFTS...AND HAVE CONTD PERIPHERAL WATCH/UNCHANGED...ALLOWING FOR LATER UPG/ADVISORIES/CAN AS NEEDED...AND CONCENTRATED TIMING/AMOUNTS ON WHAT SHOULD BE MORE ASSURABLE LEAD TIME...AND PRESENTS GOOD FIT IN COMPARO TO NATIONAL GUID/SURROUNDING WFO COLLABORATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6z GFS ensemble mean qpf shield has nudged a bit west in MI....hopefully this means the bleeding has officially stopped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just of note, this is my first winter storm warning since GHD. Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 BTW, for anyone using the SREF, SPC has identified a problem with the ARW members: Just use the SREF plumes page and turn off the ARW members as shown in the link. http://www.spc.noaa....ptypeerror.html Well doing just that brings the SREF back down to reality (in other words, shifts it SE to the model consensus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6z GFS ensemble mean qpf shield has nudged a bit west in MI....hopefully this means the bleeding has officially stopped! I'm expecting an inch in Howell, probably 2-4 for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 6z RGEM is almost a complete whiff here. There better be some convergence starting at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 On the other hand you got the 3z SREF mean which is AOA 1.00", although with a RGEMmy members: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On the other hand you got the 3z SREF mean which is AOA 1.00", although with a RGEMmy members: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hopefully Santa delivers a decent system snow to SW and S. central Ontario instead of the more usual nickle and dime stuff. Merry Christmas to the board!. On the other hand you got the 3z SREF mean which is AOA 1.00", although with a RGEMmy members: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hopefully Santa delivers a decent system snow to SW and S. central Ontario instead of the more usual nickle and dime stuff. Merry Christmas to the board!. Merry Christmas Alan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looking at a solid 5" here perhaps a little more if the storm will tick to the NW. All on all a great start to the winter season. Might of been slow to start but there is many mentions of snow in the next 7 days. I prefer 5 one inch snows to a monster anyhow. Hope Santa has been good to you all and have fun with your families. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas Alan. Thanks Mike. Same to you. I'm really pulling for you on this one. I want to see some snowbanks on the sides of the roads in the GTA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just a bit of a meltdown by me in the other thread...my bad. Anyway, going to ride the Euro to the grave on this one for LAF. Pretty damn good consistency in precip amounts with 4 out of the last 5 runs. If it fails me, well it fails. May not be the biggest snow, but 3-4" would suit me just fine. Good luck to all with this one, and Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas and I am hoping for a last minute jog but I've settled on 2-4" for Kokomo. Maybe 5" on the far eastern edge. Hopefully we will get ours in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z NAM looking slightly more amped through h18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas guys. Enjoy the storm folks. Glad to see DTX hoist the watches condisering the travel implications. Region wide (metro area) 4-8" looks great. Loving the small NW ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Definitely deeper aloft at 21. 540 dam contour closed off this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 STL actually gets brushed this run, which is definitely a sign of a bit of a NW tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 More generous with moisture to the NW as well, at least it's looking like I won't be completely left out.. NWS calling for 5-8" which i'll gladly take, but still not comfortable until I see the flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Feel like the atlantic is sucking moisture from the low and making it move more east than north. Or maybe im still buzzed. Feliz navidad y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm expecting an inch in Howell, probably 2-4 for your backyard. and 50 miles more NW the low goes...DET area gets 6-9" you get 4-6". It's a now-cast storm. will see. I've seen storms shift NW or SE last minute...I can see both scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks pretty Euro-ish to me. Gives LAF over 0.25" through 30hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Man would it be nice to find a way to get that ul to at least get to the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The evening commute tomorrow is going to be insane. I'll be glad most people take the holiday week off from work. Ironically The Weather Channel has named this storm Euclid, which happens to be the main street of Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 By 36, the precip shield is definitely a smidge NW but there's still a <1000mb low on the VA/NC border like with the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Tracking the low by radar is a bad idea I know, but it sure appears to me that it has at least stopped digging and maybe starting to go a shade ENE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12zNAM is about 6-9" for YYZ. Very euro-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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