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December 26 - 27 Winter Storm III


snowstormcanuck

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FWIW nam 06Z....

Yep, pretty good run for us... Also, just judging from my relatively untrained eye, the radar returns and motion look fairly good for us ATM too, but that can be decieving.

Already getting windy, dark cloud tops starting to move in

Winds are starting to get a little gusty up here too. 23 MPH gust at City Airport.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2227

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0225 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...CNTRL AND SRN IND...W-CNTRL AND SW OH

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 260825Z - 261430Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM

SE MO/SRN IL ACROSS CNTRL IND INTO W-CNTRL AND SW OH EARLY THIS

MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT

TIMES. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LEAD TO

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG PVA WAS PIVOTING E/NE ACROSS WRN TN INTO SRN KY

AS OF 0730Z...PROVIDING MOIST ASCENT OVER BAND OF 700 MB

FRONTOGENESIS FROM SRN IL EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY. AS THE SFC LOW

/CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL TN AT 08Z/ CONTINUES TO LIFT N/NE...WARM

CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FUEL FOR HEAVY

SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS SE MO INTO SW IL AND WILL

CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL IND AND SW/S-CNTRL OH OVER

THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES AN

HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF PERIODS OF EVEN HEAVIER SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY

SMALLER CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS SRN IL...BUT INCREASINGLY

UNFAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL

ACROSS IND AND OH. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY

INITIALLY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA AS

THE TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION OCCURS.

NLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW /AS EVIDENT

IN SFC OBS FROM NE ARK INTO SRN IL/. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30

MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN FACT...A GUST TO 42 MPH WAS

OBSERVED AT POPLAR BLUFF WAS AT 0745Z. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED

WITH HEAVY SNOW WILL LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SPREADING NEWD

THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

post-4544-0-72158100-1356511028_thumb.gi

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Tough forecast this morning. NAM at 6z is holding severe with its trowal of joy scenario, spitting out a nice round 1.25" QPF at YYZ. RAP seems to be backing it up. EURO, although much more tame, has at 0.71" enough juice to make this a significant storm.

Then you have the 6z GFS come in with what looks like about 0.35", 3rd straight reduction in a row, and the RGEM holding steady at 0.40".

I am having a tough time believing there's going to be such a sharp northern cutoff, as per the 6z GFS, considering the positioning of the upper trough, its negative tilt, and the fact we'll be experiencing PVA. That being said, I noticed the models were a little too quick in closing off the 540 dam contour this morning over TN.

Looks like I'll ride my 3-7" for now.

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This storm could crack a top ten list for calendar day snowfalls at CLE. Yes, I know that stat is kind of irrelevant, but something to watch. I do find it interesting how most of our snowfalls here have been broken up by the midnight hour, this one looks to have 90% falling during today's calendar.

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