December 26 - 27 Winter Storm III

[BowMeHunter]

Lol, like 14" here.

I think 6-8" is a good bet... breaks right.. 9-12"

[Geos]

FWIW: The NAM was pretty close with the high qpf around here on the last storm. I will say though it's usually too high on qpf. I guess once in awhile it's not so far from reality.

[Snowstorms]

Looks like it's about 0.60-0.65" like the 12z. Lock step with the GFS. I'm going to safely deposit in the trash can. We'll keep an eye on it, but I don't think there's any reason to incorporate its ridiculous amounts into any forecast.

0.60 to 0.70 seems reasonable and using 10:1 and 13:1 snow ratios that would equate to 6-9 inches or 15-25cm which is enough for a WSW across our region, lets see. Looks impressive on the radar.

[snowstormcanuck]

I think 6-8" is a good bet... breaks right.. 9-12"

We get 9-12" I'll Fedex you your fav. case of beer. And that's a juicy bet because liquor prices here are through the roof.

[Chicago WX]

I understand you're under no obligation to disseminate anything, but these cryptic games aren't useful at all and in fact they're downright annoying.

Nearly identical to the 12z run for YYZ. At most, you gain or lose like 0.02".

[AppsRunner]

In RAP we trust

[on_wx]

Wonder what ec's 5/530 forecast update will bring...blizzard warnings anyone? Lol

One can dream.

Mike, do you know when the last time the Region of Waterloo had a blizzard warning?

[hm8]

More detail (I just have mslp/QPF maps, no text data)

Surface low is maybe a nanohair NW/slower

.25" line is a bit further into SEMI, on a line from Cold Water to Bad Axe, but the .5 contour still isn't in MI

A bit drier of S IN (no 1" spots)

A bit wetter for S. OH (a small 1" dot in the SE)

YYZ still reaaaal clost to the .75" contour

[chuckster2013]

Is it really raining in southern Ill. or is the radar just whacked out?

[chuckster2013]

Is it really raining in southern Ill. or is the radar just whacked out?

[extremewx52]

What are thoughts on potential ice storm with this system? Think we will see a zone of that in SW Ohio or mostly just sleet with patchy frz rain? ILN doesn't seem too concerned mentioning only a 1/10" at most. Some models dump a lot of ZR.

I could see sleet mixing in being an issue as far north as deleware (on the north end) in our area, but I don't think freezing rain will be a serious issue simply because we do not have an arctic airmass in place beforehand. Temps are right at or above freezing right now.

Prediction for rain snow line is anywhere from Lancaster to Delaware. Definitely will need to be monitored closely

[snowstormcanuck]

0.60 to 0.70 seems reasonable and using 10:1 and 13:1 snow ratios that would equate to 6-9 inches or 15-25cm which is enough for a WSW across our region, lets see. Looks impressive on the radar.

1% chance of a watch warning in the morning. Remember, RGEM's not indicating much more than 10 mm of precip.

And I've found over the years it's best to calculate snowfall totals on a pure 10:1 scale. The slightly higher ratios (not >15:1). are often offset by things like initial dry air, dry slots, showery nature of the pcpn, etc. That being said, I might bump us another inch or so tomorrow if the 12z EURO/GFS look similar.

[Snowstorms]

More detail (I just have mslp/QPF maps, no text data)

Surface low is maybe a nanohair NW/slower

.25" line is a bit further into SEMI, on a line from Cold Water to Bad Axe, but the .5 contour still isn't in MI

A bit drier of S IN (no 1" spots)

A bit wetter for S. OH (a small 1" dot in the SE)

YYZ still reaaaal clost to the .75" contour

Thanks.

Give or take, even a small shift through the next few hours could put us in the 0.75 qpf corridor, so again, it will really depend on a nowcast sort of thing.

I'll stick with my 5-8 inch call.

[BowMeHunter]

We get 9-12" I'll Fedex you your fav. case of beer. And that's a juicy bet because liquor prices here are through the roof.

I'm banking on 0.70" qpf.. should lock in 6-8" with a 10:1 or so ratio.. hopefully ratios and qpf get realized or even a tad more than we maybe see the 9-12"

Summer road trip to your place... I can't believe the prices of beer.. I watch a dude on youtube and I think a 18 pack of James Ready 5.0 is like 30 bucks.. not sure the quality of james but I can't imagine much different than ****ty miller high life or Buttweiser here.

[snowstormcanuck]

One can dream.

Mike, do you know when the last time the Region of Waterloo had a blizzard warning?

You may have had one on GHD. That would be the only one. Up until 2011 blizzard warnings were never (at least none that I can remember) issued in southern Ontario because we could never meet the temperature/windchill criteria. Even Jan 1999 didn't feature a blizzard warning. Since 2011, that criteria was removed, so it's solely wind/reduced visibility, but we haven't had squat for storms since.

[JayPSU]

I could see sleet mixing in being an issue as far north as deleware (on the north end) in our area, but I don't think freezing rain will be a serious issue simply because we do not have an arctic airmass in place beforehand. Temps are right at or above freezing right now.

Prediction for rain snow line is anywhere from Lancaster to Delaware. Definitely will need to be monitored closely

Right smack in between there (closer to Delaware) in Westerville is me. Praying it's just far enough north.

[Snowstorms]

1% chance of a watch warning in the morning. Remember, RGEM's not indicating much more than 10 mm of precip.

And I've found over the years it's best to calculate snowfall totals on a pure 10:1 scale. The slightly higher ratios (not >15:1). are often offset by things like initial dry air, dry slots, showery nature of the pcpn, etc. That being said, I might bump us another inch or so tomorrow if the 12z EURO/GFS look similar.

They're bias to only using ONE model is incredible. They should receive a warning or something of that sort for their failure to use more than one model when they input their forecasts to the public. TWN gets their data from EC as well.

I always use 10:1 to 13:1 ratios, temperature dependent, but never above that.

Yes, a small shift could mean a big difference, but never again will i reside with the Nam lool unless....it ends up being right, haha.

[Chicago WX]

Summer road trip to your place... I can't believe the prices of beer.. I watch a dude on youtube and I think a 18 pack of James Ready 5.0 is like 30 bucks.. not sure the quality of james but I can't imagine much different than ****ty miller high life or Buttweiser here.

Geez, I'd have to get a second job up there.

6-10" is my call for Toronto. See no reason that 6 won't be achieved, and no harm in putting the upper limit at 10.

[AppsRunner]

I thought it was called in RAP we bust:?

lol you can call it whatever you want but there is at least fairly good agreement between the 4 major hi-res models bring some better QPF numbers into NWOH

[wxdudemike]

I could see sleet mixing in being an issue as far north as deleware (on the north end) in our area, but I don't think freezing rain will be a serious issue simply because we do not have an arctic airmass in place beforehand. Temps are right at or above freezing right now.

Prediction for rain snow line is anywhere from Lancaster to Delaware. Definitely will need to be monitored closely

I'm actually in Madeira (10 miles NE of Cincinnati) for break. I don't suppose that changes anything? haha. But yeah that is very true...Just wondering about any evapo. cooling but with a DP of 27 I guess not too much will fall. The warm layer is thin too, so maybe more of a sleety area than frz rain? I was thinking maybe by time you get far enough south to be rain it will be above freezing at the surface.

[Snowstorms]

I'm banking on 0.70" qpf.. should lock in 6-8" with a 10:1 ratio.. hopefully ratios and qpf get realized or even a tad more than we maybe see the 9-12"

Summer road trip to your place... I can't believe the prices of beer.. I watch a dude on youtube and I think a 18 pack of James Ready 5.0 is like 30 bucks.. not sure the quality of james but I can't imagine much different than ****ty miller high life or Buttweiser here.

I bought a Budweiser yesterday with my friends, a 24 pack, for about $40-50 dollars Canadian. Quite expensive.

And 6-8" is a good number, thanks for your support

Hope you get something great out of this too.

[on_wx]

You may have had one on GHD. That would be the only one. Up until 2011 blizzard warnings were never (at least none that I can remember) issued in southern Ontario because we could never meet the temperature/windchill criteria. Even Jan 1999 didn't feature a blizzard warning. Since 2011, that criteria was removed, so it's solely wind/reduced visibility, but we haven't had squat for storms since.

GHD was Lambton, Middlesex, Oxford, Brant, Hamilton, and Niagara counties. Though, in February 2007 Grey and Bruce counties were put under a blizzard warning if you remember. Can't remember anything from the 90s, but I was a wee pup at the time. That GHD warning said it was the first widespread one since 1996. Maybe then?

[buckeye]

I could see sleet mixing in being an issue as far north as deleware (on the north end) in our area, but I don't think freezing rain will be a serious issue simply because we do not have an arctic airmass in place beforehand. Temps are right at or above freezing right now.

Prediction for rain snow line is anywhere from Lancaster to Delaware. Definitely will need to be monitored closely

I think if you start as snow you stay mostly snow. With the direction the storm is moving it's hard to see areas in central Ohio start snow and turn to rain.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'm banking on 0.70" qpf.. should lock in 6-8" with a 10:1 or so ratio.. hopefully ratios and qpf get realized or even a tad more than we maybe see the 9-12"

Summer road trip to your place... I can't believe the prices of beer.. I watch a dude on youtube and I think a 18 pack of James Ready 5.0 is like 30 bucks.. not sure the quality of james but I can't imagine much different than ****ty miller high life or Buttweiser here.

24 pack for $30. But that's basically the cheapest (and you're right, crappiest) stuff you can find. At least you get the extra 0.5% alcohol though.

[YHM Supercell]

GHD was Lambton, Middlesex, Oxford, Brant, Hamilton, and Niagara counties. Though, in February 2007 Grey and Bruce counties were put under a blizzard warning if you remember. Can't remember anything from the 90s, but I was a wee pup at the time. That GHD warning said it was the first widespread one since 1996. Maybe then?

1993... The march superstorm

[Chicago Storm]

0Z ECMWF Text List

STL:

WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.5 -6.0 1018 72 70 0.01 547 533
WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -7.4 1016 72 77 0.05 544 532

PAH:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.3 -0.5 1007 85 100 0.38 547 541
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -5.8 1006 89 99 0.56 540 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.1 -7.2 1013 76 84 0.23 544 534

DEC:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.1 -6.5 1015 70 83 0.03 544 532
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.1 -8.3 1016 66 92 0.04 544 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.0 -9.3 1020 67 36 0.01 547 532

VPZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -7.1 1016 71 98 0.04 543 531
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -8.0 1017 74 97 0.06 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.1 -7.2 1018 74 44 0.01 547 533

LAF:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.5 -5.8 1014 72 91 0.02 545 534
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -6.1 1013 79 98 0.24 542 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -8.4 1016 79 97 0.10 544 531

IND:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.1 -3.2 1010 83 98 0.13 545 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.7 -6.3 1009 90 98 0.59 541 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.1 -9.0 1014 87 82 0.14 544 532

BMG:

WED

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -2.8 1007 86 99 0.27 544 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -6.1 1007 86 96 0.49 541 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.7 -8.8 1015 84 83 0.08 545 533

MIE:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 -3.3 1012 78 93 0.06 547 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -5.8 1008 92 100 0.58 542 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -8.9 1013 88 82 0.17 542 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.0 -8.2 1016 87 48 0.01 546 534

OKK:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.6 -4.7 1014 77 94 0.02 546 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -5.1 1011 87 99 0.36 542 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.9 1015 86 93 0.15 543 531

FWA:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.4 -5.4 1015 75 87 0.01 547 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -5.0 1011 85 99 0.22 542 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.5 -9.2 1014 84 92 0.19 542 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.3 -8.3 1016 83 56 0.01 544 532

GRR:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.2 -6.8 1018 74 100 0.05 543 529
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -6.7 1018 75 87 0.03 543 529

BTL:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -7.9 1016 73 89 0.03 544 531
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.3 -8.4 1016 83 98 0.13 542 529
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.3 -7.3 1017 83 78 0.04 543 530

MOP:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -10.6 1020 67 33 0.01 545 529
THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.2 -7.4 1019 76 93 0.03 543 528
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.1 -6.5 1018 79 97 0.04 542 528

PTK:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -6.9 1016 75 81 0.02 545 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.6 -8.3 1015 83 97 0.19 542 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -8.0 1014 87 86 0.13 541 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.5 1017 88 80 0.03 543 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.1 -5.6 1019 77 47 0.01 547 533

DTW:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -6.7 1014 79 94 0.06 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.2 -8.3 1013 85 97 0.28 542 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -8.4 1013 86 83 0.11 541 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.3 -7.8 1016 87 74 0.02 544 531
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.4 -5.6 1019 77 43 0.01 548 533

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.1 -6.5 1015 75 90 0.04 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.1 -8.0 1013 84 97 0.27 542 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.0 -8.4 1013 86 91 0.16 541 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.0 -7.6 1016 87 76 0.03 543 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.6 -5.8 1018 75 48 0.01 547 533

JXN:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.9 -7.7 1015 77 92 0.05 544 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.7 -9.5 1015 83 98 0.20 542 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.6 1015 87 92 0.05 542 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.7 -7.3 1019 84 73 0.01 546 531

TDZ:

WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.4 -6.0 1018 69 68 0.01 549 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.3 -6.0 1011 85 97 0.16 544 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.4 -8.6 1011 87 97 0.38 541 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.2 -8.6 1013 86 74 0.06 542 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.8 1017 87 67 0.01 545 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.7 -5.8 1019 80 34 0.01 549 534

DAY:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 -1.1 1010 84 99 0.15 548 540
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -3.0 1005 90 95 0.61 542 538
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.0 -7.0 1008 90 90 0.11 542 535
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.2 -8.5 1014 87 67 0.02 544 533

HAO:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.5 -0.9 1008 88 100 0.27 548 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.9 1003 89 83 0.41 541 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.5 -6.7 1008 87 91 0.09 542 535
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -8.6 1014 85 50 0.01 546 534 

CMH:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -0.1 1012 82 100 0.07 550 541
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -2.8 1005 88 100 0.59 544 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -4.7 1005 89 94 0.16 541 537
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.2 -7.9 1010 89 84 0.03 542 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.8 -8.9 1017 87 58 0.01 547 534

CLE:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -3.8 1011 80 98 0.13 546 538
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -7.2 1008 89 97 0.54 542 535
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.4 -7.8 1008 88 95 0.16 540 534
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.4 -9.2 1014 85 72 0.05 542 531
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.5 -7.7 1017 81 49 0.02 548 534
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.3 -6.0 1020 82 21 0.01 551 535
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -3.7 -4.4 1020 86 10 0.01 551 535

YKF:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.4 -6.2 1016 71 99 0.09 545 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.2 -6.8 1012 84 98 0.30 541 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.6 -8.2 1014 83 94 0.14 540 529
THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.5 1015 74 73 0.02 541 530

YYZ:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.4 -6.3 1017 71 96 0.06 546 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -6.5 1013 84 99 0.34 541 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.4 -8.6 1013 85 96 0.27 539 529
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.4 -8.7 1015 78 78 0.04 540 529
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -5.3 -7.3 1017 84 64 0.01 543 530 

[on_wx]

1993... The march superstorm

Oh yeah

THIS IS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN

ONTARIO SINCE MARCH 1993, DURING THE 'STORM OF THE CENTURY'.

[chuckster2013]

Precip. just began here in SE Indiana.....RAIN! Looks like rain across state to So. Illinois also atm....

[Chicago WX]

Nice, back into our consistent 0.34-0.36" range on the Euro.

Thanks Joe.

[BowMeHunter]

I bought a Budweiser yesterday with my friends, a 24 pack, for about $40-50 dollars Canadian. Quite expensive.

And 6-8" is a good number, thanks for your support

Hope you get something great out of this too.

Dammm.. Case of bud here is $17.00 and you get a free NFL pint glass.

6-8" is going to make the landscape gorgeous and its been awhile since that much so its going to be extra amazing. Good luck and enjoy to you and all.. I'm happy for ya's and its been a fun one as always to follow along. Lots of action just not a lot of snow results for a lot of us this december. Hopefully January is another active month but I don't really like our chances as much as i do for the southern and eastern lakes.