snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 LSX WRF and IWX WRF look pretty decent for SE MI (and YYZ extrapolating). Both pick up on the some heavier snows in the trowal. IWX WRF shows 0.6" for the Detroit area. EDIT: I see we were thinking and doing the same thing hm8 I'll say. IWX WRF actually gets the primary sfc low up to the OH River. Not expecting that, but if it did happen, it'd be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 LSX WRF and IWX WRF look pretty decent for SE MI (and YYZ extrapolating). Both pick up on the some heavier snows in the trowal. IWX WRF shows 0.6" for the Detroit area. EDIT: I see we were thinking and doing the same thing hm8 Both are not a total whiff for LAF anymore either, as their respective 12z runs were. Need all the backup we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Both are not a total whiff for LAF anymore either, as their respective 12z runs were. Need all the backup we can get. Let me add more backup. Chad's updated map (broken down into lovely 1" intervals) has the 5-6" line going right through us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 LSX WRF and IWX WRF look pretty decent for SE MI (and YYZ extrapolating). Both pick up on the some heavier snows in the trowal. IWX WRF shows 0.6" for the Detroit area. EDIT: I see we were thinking and doing the same thing hm8 Yup...this is a dangerous, dangerous page for model watching...so many hi-res models...so much opportunity for you to find one with unrealistic totals and get your hopes up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 heh...NSSL WRF total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll say. IWX WRF actually gets the primary sfc low up to the OH River. Not expecting that, but if it did happen, it'd be huge. Might want to look at the 0z NMM run on NCEP. Goes for Detroit/SE MI folks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Let me add more backup. Chad's updated map (broken down into lovely 1" intervals) has the 5-6" line going right through us. We're golden now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvansvilleBlizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 heavy snow moving in....43 mph wind gust and lightning coming from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 SmartCast Analysis 26 Dec 03Z to 27 Dec 03Z. Dayton Region: Looking at snow to begin around 08Z, then increasing in intensity around 12Z, with snow rates of 2.0” possible from 12Z to 17Z. Winds will also begin to increase above 35MPH after 11Z and continue through 16Z. Currently my SmartCast is showing 12.9” of accumulation for the Dayton Region. Indianapolis Region: Looking for snow to begin at 08Z and continue through the 03Z period. Heaviest snow looks to be from 13Z to 18Z, with snowfall rates around 1.2” possible during this time frame. In addition, winds will increase to 35 to 38MPH from 09Z to 18Z, which will cause blizzard like conditions across the Indy area. Currently looking at around 9.3” of accumulation for this area. Terre Haute Region: Snow will begin around 05Z and increase in intensity from 11Z to 17Z, with snowfall rates up around 1” possible during this time frame. Winds will also gust up to 35MPH from 10Z to 17Z, causing blizzard like conditions across the area. Around 8.1” of accumulation is possible. Columbus Region: Tracking snow to begin around 08Z and increasing in intensity from 13Z to 18Z, with snowfall rates approaching 1.5” possible during this time frame. My SmartCast showing temps starying just above freezing, which is limiting the snowfall accumulations. Right now showing 3 to 5” possible, if temps are indeed colder, then looking at 7-10” across this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sleet here in Seymour...boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 heavy snow moving in....43 mph wind gust and lightning coming from the south Awesome. Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Based off of Allan's site, EURO initialized properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think I'm just gonna not mention how the Euro did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Based off of Allan's site, EURO initialized properly. I used to have access to the QPF, 500mb charts and stuff but now i dont. Anyone have the qpf totals from the 0z Euro? And thats good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Based off of Allan's site, EURO initialized properly. I would guess qpf is close to 12z.. hopefully a tad more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think I'm just gonna not mention how the Euro did... lol, are you kidding me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I would guess qpf is close to 12z.. NAM should be discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 lol, are you kidding me? I'll say that it didn't follow the NW trend...best I don't get into details. EDIT: QPF wise its pretty much the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM should be discontinued. how much was the NAM? sorry just got in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll say that it didn't follow the NW trend...best I don't get into details. I understand you're under no obligation to disseminate anything, but these cryptic games aren't useful at all and in fact they're downright annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 how much was the NAM? sorry just got in. Lol, like 14" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro looks like it might have a slight expansion on the northwestern edge. This run might be enough to put LAF over .3 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll say that it didn't follow the NW trend...best I don't get into details. EDIT: QPF wise its pretty much the same as 12z. Thanks. Sorry about chiding you. It's 1 am and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll say that it didn't follow the NW trend...best I don't get into details. ? not much different than 12z and maybe a tad better for se michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll say that it didn't follow the NW trend...best I don't get into details. EDIT: QPF wise its pretty much the same as 12z. I understand canuck's anger and rage lol, but yeah, how much qpf exactly? damn really wish i had the access again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What are thoughts on potential ice storm with this system? Think we will see a zone of that in SW Ohio or mostly just sleet with patchy frz rain? ILN doesn't seem too concerned mentioning only a 1/10" at most. Some models dump a lot of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Thanks. Sorry about chiding you. It's 1 am and all. its all good. Just a smidgen of trolling on my part for the last Euro round of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM should be discontinued. Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I understand canuck's anger and rage lol, but yeah, how much qpf exactly? damn really wish i had the access again. Looks like it's about 0.60-0.65" like the 12z. Lock step with the GFS. I'm going to safely deposit in the trash can. We'll keep an eye on it, but I don't think there's any reason to incorporate its ridiculous amounts into any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wonder what ec's 5/530 forecast update will bring...blizzard warnings anyone? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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