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December 26 - 27 Winter Storm III


snowstormcanuck

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Hi-res maddness for SEMI...

00z 4km NAM has 5-12" east of I-69 and I-75, with the highest amounts in the east thumb/Port Huron area

00z RGEM shows a 1-3" event

9 of the 21z SREF members have a non-event for DTW

3 show 3-5"

10 have 8-13"

:facepalm:

Life was a lot easier for me back before I knew how to follow the models...But it also was a lot more disappointing when I'd go to bed with the nightly news telling me to expect 6-10" of snow and wake up to wet snowflakes mixed with rain, temp 34, and a slushy spattering on the grass.

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BTW, for anyone using the SREF, SPC has identified a problem with the ARW members:

][/font]A recent fix to the instantaneous precipitation rates in the SREF (in order to fix errors in the ceiling and visibility) has inadvertently caused erroneous precipitation type fields in the ARW members. The error has resulted in no precipitation type being assigned to the vast majority of freezing or frozen precipitation areas in the ARW members. This will cause the following ensemble products related to precipitation type to be too low in magnitude

Just use the SREF plumes page and turn off the ARW members as shown in the link.

http://www.spc.noaa....ptypeerror.html

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Chicago, can you post the EURO text for MIE? Thanks.

I'm not joe but I guess I can do it for him...

WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.8 -4.1 1020	 79	 53 0.00	 551	 536
WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -2.6 1012	 81	 99 0.07	 548	 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.2 -4.1 1008	 93	 99 0.54	 543	 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -8.3 1012	 89	 85 0.21	 543	 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -8.3 1015	 87	 41 0.02	 547	 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.7 -5.8 1019	 86	 15 0.00	 551	 536

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Just a bit of a meltdown by me in the other thread...my bad. Anyway, going to ride the Euro to the grave on this one for LAF. Pretty damn good consistency in precip amounts with 4 out of the last 5 runs. If it fails me, well it fails. May not be the biggest snow, but 3-4" would suit me just fine. Good luck to all with this one, and Merry Christmas.

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Just a bit of a meltdown by me in the other thread...my bad. Anyway, going to ride the Euro to the grave on this one for LAF. Pretty damn good consistency in precip amounts with 4 out of the last 5 runs. If it fails me, well it fails. May not be the biggest snow, but 3-4" would suit me just fine. Good luck to all with this one, and Merry Christmas.

Good luck down there, LAF crew and Merry Christmas to you to..

MKE reporting an inch of snow cover and more than that here. Winner winner Lobster dinner for you..

Despite the bad luck Dec I got the only thing I wished for and a white Christmas so I'm happy.

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Good luck down there, LAF crew and Merry Christmas to you to..

MKE reporting an inch of snow cover and more than that here. Winner winner Lobster dinner for you..

Despite the bad luck Dec I got the only thing I wished for and a white Christmas so I'm happy.

Thanks man.

And I almost forgot about the double or nothing. I'm on a roll. :lol:

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NAM needs to be further n, upper levels don't match at all. Notice the RAP and what it does right. The Euro gets this as well, which is why it has higher moisture further north(though it is less wet and colder, which is little surprise).

The RAP would really have bomb factor written all over it. Drives the H5 into the GOM before amplifying the ridge out ahead of it.

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Yup, the nam is staying open a bit to long, messing things up a bit. Needs a stronger low further south. Had this problem with the GHD storm as well............

Well, we will see what happens.............

Yeah, looking at the H5 this thing probably should've come NW on the NAM. However; it's still a step in the right direction even though it isnt perfect.

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And we have a watch folks.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

354 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE

WESTERN GULF COAST STATES TODAY...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES

ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR

4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MIZ063-070-076-082-083-252100-

/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0002.121226T1700Z-121227T1200Z/

ST. CLAIR-MACOMB-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...WARREN...DETROIT...

ADRIAN...MONROE

354 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY

BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY

EVENING.

* TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING

AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES A

HALF MILE OR LESS.

IMPACTS...

* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT

TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.

VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

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And we have a watch folks.

And I've got a warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

318 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

...THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON...

.AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY

WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT

TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION

ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON

WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO

CREATE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS.

OHZ003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-251630-

/O.UPG.KCLE.WS.A.0003.121226T1200Z-121227T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KCLE.WS.W.0005.121226T1200Z-121227T1200Z/

LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-HANCOCK-SENECA-

HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-

WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...

FREMONT...SANDUSKY...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...FINDLAY...TIFFIN...

NORWALK...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY...

BUCYRUS...MANSFIELD...ASHLAND...WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN...

MARION...MOUNT GILEAD...MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON

318 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM

EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. THE GREATEST

ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOME

FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY TO

THE SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30. SOME SLIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION COULD

OCCUR

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA

WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE

NORTHEAST WILL ALSO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF

THE SNOW. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW COULD BECOME

MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF

THE AREA.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...COULD BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES FROM THE

COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS

EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING

CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU

SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE

EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA

WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

I'd like to see this verify, I believe in you NWS CLE!

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From LMK...

...Winter Storm Expected Wednesday...

First off, Christmas Day will cloudy but dry. High temps are

expected to reach the upper 30s to mid 40s across the region.

Our attention then turns to a developing storm system over OK/TX.

This low pressure system will track eastward across TX/LA/MS today

before taking a northeast turn as the system strengthens and become

more vertically stacked. 0Z model guidance has trended more south

and east with the track of this low pressure system through the TN

valley and into eastern KY. As it moves into eastern KY, a double

barrel sfc low will develop with energy from the first low being

transferred to the western low aiding in better eastward progression.

Because the track of this system has shifted farther south and east

than previous model runs, a colder snowier soln is in store for our

southern Indiana counties. Precipitation should overspread the area

from south to north this evening with initial precip type beginning

as light rain over most areas although a transition to freezing

rain/sleet/snow is likely over southern Indiana and north central

Kentucky as sfc temps fall below freezing and some ice crystal

formation begins aloft. Also in favor of mixed precipitation is a

weak trowal aloft scheduled to move north over the area during the

pre-dawn hours. Around 9-10Z the bulk of the QPF will enter our area

with precipitation type changing over to all rain over much of KY

and moderate to heavy snow over southern Indiana. A good h85

deformation axis will cross southern Indiana from roughly 8-12z

resulting in a good period of snow accums between 2-4 inches during

that 4 hour block. Snow will continue over southern Indiana Wed

with the rest of KY transition from rain to snow as well from west

to east during the afternoon and evening hours as QPF amounts get

light on the back side of this system. Light snow will gradually

end from west to east Wed night. Of note, a few models bring a

secondary QPF maxima through the Bluegrass on the back side of this

system. Will need to watch this especially if it`s on the cold side

resulting in potentially a few inches of snow.

For now, will upgrade Dubois, Orange, Washington, and Scott counties

in Indiana to a winter storm warning. Confidence is high that 4+

inches of snow will fall here with ice accumulations of 0.1-0.25

inches possible as well. Will drop the winter storm watch farther

south for all southern Indiana counties plus Trimble Co. KY. Will

keep an SPS going for KY counties just south of the Ohio River.

Still keep in mind that the track of this low pressure can still

change as the system evolves and gets closer to our area. Keep

abreast of forecast updates today and plan your holiday travel

accordingly.

Another nuisance factor that will be mentioned in the winter wx

products will be winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph possible

during the wintry precip resulting in reduced visibilities at times

and making travel more difficult.

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