hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hi-res maddness for SEMI... 00z 4km NAM has 5-12" east of I-69 and I-75, with the highest amounts in the east thumb/Port Huron area 00z RGEM shows a 1-3" event 9 of the 21z SREF members have a non-event for DTW 3 show 3-5" 10 have 8-13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hi-res maddness for SEMI... 00z 4km NAM has 5-12" east of I-69 and I-75, with the highest amounts in the east thumb/Port Huron area 00z RGEM shows a 1-3" event 9 of the 21z SREF members have a non-event for DTW 3 show 3-5" 10 have 8-13" Life was a lot easier for me back before I knew how to follow the models...But it also was a lot more disappointing when I'd go to bed with the nightly news telling me to expect 6-10" of snow and wake up to wet snowflakes mixed with rain, temp 34, and a slushy spattering on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hi-res maddness for SEMI... 00z 4km NAM has 5-12" east of I-69 and I-75, with the highest amounts in the east thumb/Port Huron area 00z RGEM shows a 1-3" event 9 of the 21z SREF members have a non-event for DTW 3 show 3-5" 10 have 8-13" Lol...amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Chicago, can you post the EURO text for MIE? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 BTW, for anyone using the SREF, SPC has identified a problem with the ARW members: ][/font]A recent fix to the instantaneous precipitation rates in the SREF (in order to fix errors in the ceiling and visibility) has inadvertently caused erroneous precipitation type fields in the ARW members. The error has resulted in no precipitation type being assigned to the vast majority of freezing or frozen precipitation areas in the ARW members. This will cause the following ensemble products related to precipitation type to be too low in magnitude Just use the SREF plumes page and turn off the ARW members as shown in the link. http://www.spc.noaa....ptypeerror.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Chicago, can you post the EURO text for MIE? Thanks. I'm not joe but I guess I can do it for him... WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.8 -4.1 1020 79 53 0.00 551 536 WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -2.6 1012 81 99 0.07 548 538 WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.2 -4.1 1008 93 99 0.54 543 536 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -8.3 1012 89 85 0.21 543 533 THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -8.3 1015 87 41 0.02 547 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.7 -5.8 1019 86 15 0.00 551 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 BTW, for anyone using the SREF, SPC has identified a problem with the ARW members: Just use the SREF plumes page and turn off the ARW members as shown in the link. http://www.spc.noaa....ptypeerror.html I noticed this on the psu e-wall as well that it basically represents snow as nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I noticed this on the psu e-wall as well that it basically represents snow as nothing. I had just assumed that it was an error with PSU's maps. By the way there's one heck of a spread... a few members barely even got the precip past I-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just a bit of a meltdown by me in the other thread...my bad. Anyway, going to ride the Euro to the grave on this one for LAF. Pretty damn good consistency in precip amounts with 4 out of the last 5 runs. If it fails me, well it fails. May not be the biggest snow, but 3-4" would suit me just fine. Good luck to all with this one, and Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 BTW, for anyone using the SREF, SPC has identified a problem with the ARW members: Just use the SREF plumes page and turn off the ARW members as shown in the link. http://www.spc.noaa....ptypeerror.html Interesting... well just going by QPF then... 3 members have nothing 3 have .2-.5" 5 habe .6-.8" 7 have .9-1.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just a bit of a meltdown by me in the other thread...my bad. Anyway, going to ride the Euro to the grave on this one for LAF. Pretty damn good consistency in precip amounts with 4 out of the last 5 runs. If it fails me, well it fails. May not be the biggest snow, but 3-4" would suit me just fine. Good luck to all with this one, and Merry Christmas. Good luck down there, LAF crew and Merry Christmas to you to.. MKE reporting an inch of snow cover and more than that here. Winner winner Lobster dinner for you.. Despite the bad luck Dec I got the only thing I wished for and a white Christmas so I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still a good run for South Central Indiana? Someone please buy this guy an accuweather pro membership so doesn't have to ask anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Someone please buy this guy an accuweather pro membership so doesn't have to ask anymore Or go to wunderground and look at the d@mn maps for free like most of the people here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Good luck down there, LAF crew and Merry Christmas to you to.. MKE reporting an inch of snow cover and more than that here. Winner winner Lobster dinner for you.. Despite the bad luck Dec I got the only thing I wished for and a white Christmas so I'm happy. Thanks man. And I almost forgot about the double or nothing. I'm on a roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm not wavering from my earlier prediction of 6-10" that I made yesterday for NW Ohio. Either way biggest storm since February of 2010, a full 3 years almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For those wondering about euro ens mean qpf see the euro itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6z Nam coming in..let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 One thing that is already noticeable on the 6z NAM is that it is a bit more generous with precip to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 One thing that is already noticeable on the 6z NAM is that it is a bit more generous with precip to the northwest. Yup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 One thing that is already noticeable on the 6z NAM is that it is a bit more generous with precip to the northwest. I'm not exactly sure how I would describe it, but it looks... different in handling the H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is it typical for there to be two areas of low pressure during formation? Looked like there was one in eastern NM and one south of the panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nam is ok for S/E Michigan, gives us 3-5" of so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Seems like it's slower with the transfer? Hopefully the inland low stays stronger, with a slower transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM needs to be further n, upper levels don't match at all. Notice the RAP and what it does right. The Euro gets this as well, which is why it has higher moisture further north(though it is less wet and colder, which is little surprise). The RAP would really have bomb factor written all over it. Drives the H5 into the GOM before amplifying the ridge out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yup, the nam is staying open a bit to long, messing things up a bit. Needs a stronger low further south. Had this problem with the GHD storm as well............ Well, we will see what happens............. Yeah, looking at the H5 this thing probably should've come NW on the NAM. However; it's still a step in the right direction even though it isnt perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks like this will be a nowcasting event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Curious if DTX will issue any headlines? LOL NWM lol... They issued watches, but only for the most eastern counties.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 And we have a watch folks. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 354 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES TODAY...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIZ063-070-076-082-083-252100- /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0002.121226T1700Z-121227T1200Z/ ST. CLAIR-MACOMB-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...WARREN...DETROIT... ADRIAN...MONROE 354 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES A HALF MILE OR LESS. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 And we have a watch folks. And I've got a warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 318 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON... .AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO CREATE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS. OHZ003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-251630- /O.UPG.KCLE.WS.A.0003.121226T1200Z-121227T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.W.0005.121226T1200Z-121227T1200Z/ LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-HANCOCK-SENECA- HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND- WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON... FREMONT...SANDUSKY...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...FINDLAY...TIFFIN... NORWALK...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY... BUCYRUS...MANSFIELD...ASHLAND...WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN... MARION...MOUNT GILEAD...MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON 318 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30. SOME SLIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW COULD BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...COULD BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES FROM THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. I'd like to see this verify, I believe in you NWS CLE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 From LMK... ...Winter Storm Expected Wednesday... First off, Christmas Day will cloudy but dry. High temps are expected to reach the upper 30s to mid 40s across the region. Our attention then turns to a developing storm system over OK/TX. This low pressure system will track eastward across TX/LA/MS today before taking a northeast turn as the system strengthens and become more vertically stacked. 0Z model guidance has trended more south and east with the track of this low pressure system through the TN valley and into eastern KY. As it moves into eastern KY, a double barrel sfc low will develop with energy from the first low being transferred to the western low aiding in better eastward progression. Because the track of this system has shifted farther south and east than previous model runs, a colder snowier soln is in store for our southern Indiana counties. Precipitation should overspread the area from south to north this evening with initial precip type beginning as light rain over most areas although a transition to freezing rain/sleet/snow is likely over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky as sfc temps fall below freezing and some ice crystal formation begins aloft. Also in favor of mixed precipitation is a weak trowal aloft scheduled to move north over the area during the pre-dawn hours. Around 9-10Z the bulk of the QPF will enter our area with precipitation type changing over to all rain over much of KY and moderate to heavy snow over southern Indiana. A good h85 deformation axis will cross southern Indiana from roughly 8-12z resulting in a good period of snow accums between 2-4 inches during that 4 hour block. Snow will continue over southern Indiana Wed with the rest of KY transition from rain to snow as well from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours as QPF amounts get light on the back side of this system. Light snow will gradually end from west to east Wed night. Of note, a few models bring a secondary QPF maxima through the Bluegrass on the back side of this system. Will need to watch this especially if it`s on the cold side resulting in potentially a few inches of snow. For now, will upgrade Dubois, Orange, Washington, and Scott counties in Indiana to a winter storm warning. Confidence is high that 4+ inches of snow will fall here with ice accumulations of 0.1-0.25 inches possible as well. Will drop the winter storm watch farther south for all southern Indiana counties plus Trimble Co. KY. Will keep an SPS going for KY counties just south of the Ohio River. Still keep in mind that the track of this low pressure can still change as the system evolves and gets closer to our area. Keep abreast of forecast updates today and plan your holiday travel accordingly. Another nuisance factor that will be mentioned in the winter wx products will be winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph possible during the wintry precip resulting in reduced visibilities at times and making travel more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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