snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 What EC's winter storm watch looks like compared to the NWS. DTX has up to 7" along the border... Cleveland at up to 15" along the Lake Erie shoreline, and Buffalo up to 16", but EC has 2-3" for everywhere but Haldimand County and the Region of Niagara where 4-5", possibly 6", is forecast. My head.. They're not very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Had to add a little local touch. You're usually a little more bullish than me, so no surprise. And Jan 2009 is probably a good "analog" to what we may see. We'll hope for the best. Looks like it's gonna ramp up pretty fast as you go south/east. Even someone not far away like Mottster could nearly double what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernerd Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Weathernerd sitting here on the far south-east side of Indianapolis.... waiting waiting waiting. Been a long time since we've had a heavy snow event, I'll post pics tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 What happens in STL might be a nice canary in the coal mine for us further downstream. Looks like dry air is winning out so far per LSX 88D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like it's gonna ramp up pretty fast as you go south/east. Even someone not far away like Mottster could nearly double what we get. No doubt. Mottster double, and Kokomo 50% more possible. Revenge storm for them. What happens in STL might be a nice canary in the coal mine for us further downstream. Looks like dry air is winning out so far per LSX 88D. Eh, all the models have them hosed. Not sure it'll be a foreteller for downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 No doubt. Mottster double, and Kokomo 50% more possible. Revenge storm for them. Eh, all the models have them hosed. Not sure it'll be a foreteller for downstream. Well, I guess how close the defo band sets up to the city is more like it. If snow only starts accumulating 50 miles to the SE, we might have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Beh, might as well stay up for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Beh, might as well stay up for the EURO. Haha SSC. I'm getting up at 4 to go shopping. Might as well stay up for it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well, I guess how close the defo band sets up to the city is more like it. If snow only starts accumulating 50 miles to the SE, we might have a problem. I think you're reaching here a tad. For MBY sure, there may be something to it. But how many miles separate STL and YYZ? Rhetorical of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 My call for Louisville is 1-3 inches of snow. I think we will have temperatures cold enough for snow by 10 a.m., but metro Louisville may get dryslotted. If we don't get dry slotted, I'd say we can get 2-4 inches of the fluff. If we don't get much more than an inch, that just the nature of my climate. But it looks like Louisville will have two or three chances in the next week to get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GEFS mean looked like a small improvement for our LAF boys, but a step back for SE MI/NW OH/and SSC land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think you're reaching here a tad. For MBY sure, there may be something to it. But how many miles separate STL and YYZ? Rhetorical of course. It's all connected. Like dominoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Haha SSC. I'm getting up at 4 to go shopping. Might as well stay up for it too. Nothing else really on the horizon. Could be the last legit. threat for weeks. Might as well extract every last drop of enjoyment. Of course, if the EURO comes in with like 0.35" I'm going to wish I had gone to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GEFS mean looked like an improvement for our LAF boys, but a step back for SE MI/NW OH/and SSC land. Was just looking at it. Looks like it trimmed amounts a little on the northwestern fringes but it's actually a bit wetter in the heavy band in Indiana. I'm pretty much done with looking at ensemble means this close in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am becoming increasingly worried here in SE Suburbs of Columbus that we may see very little snow at all until the very end. NAM/GFS/ HRRR all push the 0*C 850 mb line through the metro and actually even north of Franklin County for several hours in the morning. An interesting outlier is the RAP. The RAP brings the warm air at 850 mb overhead from 12Z to 14Z, but then the greatest 700 mb UVV overspreads the area. The entire column is cooled via dynamic cooling and we change over to snow once again. Now, this is definitely possible, and I hope it happens (for my sake) but I am not sure how logical that is with the 45 to 60kt LLJ pumping the warm air into the system from the SE. This will need to be watched very closely, especially if surface temperatures stay below freezing. I am all about the snow, but ice storms are awful. I spent Christmas Eve at a friends house in 2004 due to that storm. I don't want another ice storm ruining my holidays. At least we have a generator now. 12Z 850 temp/wind 15Z 700 VV 15Z 850 temp/wind Thanks for your input! It's great to have a met for our local area here. I could be wrong but I believe the NAM kept 850 temps below zero the whole time. On the GFS, temps got a couple tenths of a degree above zero at CMH. If it were truly that close, wouldn't such heavy rates of qpf cool down a very marginally above zero column? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 fwiw, 00z qpf for DTW 0.57" NAM 0.53" GFS GFS in and out several hours earlier than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Having a virga rain storm here.Don't think I'm going to see the predicted blizzard atp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GEFS mean looked like a small improvement for our LAF boys, but a step back for SE MI/NW OH/and SSC land. Meh. I think there's small scale features that could go down to the wire with this thing. Amount of phasing/When transfer begins/moisture transport etc. I'm really liking what the WRF and RAP was showing, though. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GEFS mean looked like a small improvement for our LAF boys, but a step back for SE MI/NW OH/and SSC land. Only real difference in SE MI is it trimmed the 0.50"+ closer to where it now only covers the eastern counties, not the eastern 2 columns of counties as 18z did. Still an improvement over the 12z, and quite a good consensus here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's all connected. Like dominoes. If I'm smoking cirrus at 2:00pm, it's time to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 They're not very good. Or maybe they are very, very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Brosing through some of the WFOs' regional WRFs...many show that lake enhancement off of Huron in the TROWAL that the NAM was getting at earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If I'm smoking cirrus at 2:00pm, it's time to worry. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 5z analysis down in the TN Valley looks on track. Don't see anything wrong with 0z NAM/GFS at the surface or at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Or maybe they are very, very good lol, yeah, we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Having a virga rain storm here.Don't think I'm going to see the predicted blizzard atp.. Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 LSX WRF and IWX WRF look pretty decent for SE MI (and YYZ extrapolating). Both pick up on the some heavier snows in the trowal. IWX WRF shows 0.6" for the Detroit area. EDIT: I see we were thinking and doing the same thing hm8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It goes beyond 850 temps. True but we're talking 850s in this case and the differences between the models. I was looking at the hrrr as well. It even drives the 850 0 line close to Mansfield at some point. I have a hard time buying that with a storm moving e/ne out of TN. But who knows.....close call was never off the table here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow. Agreement from both NAM and GFS now tonight for a historic blizzard for us here in Columbus, Ohio. Truly amazing, and yet still hard to believe. Not sure if blizzard conditions will be met, but yeah, all models spitting out between 1.25"-1.5" of liquid, pretty much entirely snow. Anything close to that, even a 10-1 ratio would be on the largest snowfalls in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the virgafest has ended and real flurries have begun here in Flora.... it's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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