Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 THat looks significantly south of any other model. Indy barely makes 5 inches. This one's better. Or more accurate. Well not really, it's the RAP. Anyway, total run accumulated snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think the 4-7" advisory is a good call for right now, though it wont take much for this to back in a touch and be a 6-10" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Lock 'em up. Final call. LAF: 3-5" (Chad 3.8", Hoosier 4.3", me and blue 4.6") OKK: 5-7" IND: 8-10" MIE: 8-10" FWA: 4-6" KFickle: 4-6" Thinking the same thing. No idea how I'm going to verify with the wind, haha. I'll say the WL coop reports 2". Tough to keep powder on the snowboard out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think the 4-7" advisory is a good call for right now, though it wont take much for this to back in a touch and be a 6-10" snowfall. I'd say east of 75 has the better shot of that. I'm in harper woods for the week. Feeling better than I would in Livonia for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I HATE doing this....but I will make a guess. 5-7" for DTW. I will say 0.50" qpf at a 12-1 ratio, which would yield 6 inches of snow. Hope Im not a jinx...and if I bust hope its low I notice still that the GFS is notably faster than the NAM. I think that's an honest and good guess. With this setup we literally could get nothing, all the way up to 9 or 10 inches. Honestly, neither would shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ok, maybe Josh wasn't mistaken. Yeah he is correct that thing shows 3+ QPF for your backyard.. Have my new weenie go to model.. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Thinking the same thing. No idea how I'm going to verify with the wind, haha. I'll say the WL coop reports 2". Tough to keep powder on the snowboard out there. It'll be a tough measure for sure. Might need to take 10 off-board measurements in the yard and average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ahhh, the night before the event. There's been so much number crunching, model watching, and analyzing over the last 5+ days. It's only a matter of hours for many of you guys before the first flakes begin to fly. Always kind of a weird feeling to see those flakes after pouring over the data for seemingly forever. Just kick back, and enjoy the show guys! Look forward to LOTS of pics/vid this time tomorrow night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Precip even reaching central IL but falling into very dry mid-level air via ILX 0z raob sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think that's an honest and good guess. With this setup we literally could get nothing, all the way up to 9 or 10 inches. Honestly, neither would shock me. Nothing would absolutely shock me, not to mention I would be angrier than Ive ever been at the weather. But Id say the odds of getting no snow are like 0.5% at the most lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It'll be a tough measure for sure. Might need to take 10 off-board measurements in the yard and average. And thats absolutely what you should do. If the wind literally sweeps your board clean, do you report 0? I dont think so. The reality is...snowboards are perfect for light wind situations, but are more or less useless in wind-driven snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just kick back, and enjoy the show guys! Look forward to LOTS of pics/vid this time tomorrow night!! Amen to that Making my first official call here on AmericanWx Let's see how this goes. YYZ: 4-7" My backyard, currently Oakville, Ontario for the holidays: 5-8" Cheers friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 And thats absolutely what you should do. If the wind literally sweeps your board clean, do you report 0? I dont think so. The reality is...snowboards are perfect for light wind situations, but are more or less useless in wind-driven snowfalls. Just use a bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Amen to that Making my first official call here on AmericanWx Let's see how this goes. YYZ: 4-7" My backyard, currently Oakville, Ontario for the holidays: 5-8" Cheers friends. Looks good. Agree wholeheartedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What EC's winter storm watch looks like compared to the NWS. DTX has up to 7" along the border... Cleveland at up to 15" along the Lake Erie shoreline, and Buffalo up to 16", but EC has 2-3" for everywhere but Haldimand County and the Region of Niagara where 4-5", possibly 6", is forecast. My head.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks good. Agree wholeheartedly. . Canuck what does the 0z GGEM show if it has come out? I don't have access to it lol. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I really dont know what to expect snow wise. Whole bunch of possibilities here. I could hope for 8, would be happy with 6, wouldn't be surprised if we saw 4 or less lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Storm Update http://weatherhistor...-southeast.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What EC's winter storm watch looks like compared to the NWS. DTX has up to 7" along the border... Cleveland at up to 15" along the Lake Erie shoreline, and Buffalo up to 16", but EC has 2-3" for everywhere but Haldimand County and the Region of Niagara where 4-5", possibly 6", is forecast. My head.. They are going to bust harder than a diamond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Lock 'em up. Final call. LAF: 3-5" (Chad 3.8", Hoosier 4.3", me and blue 4.6") OKK: 5-7" IND: 8-10" MIE: 8-10" FWA: 4-6" KFickle: 4-6" lol, pretty specific there. I'm gonna go with 4-6" for us. I'd go better than standard ratios in this setup but probably less than 15:1 given lack of exceptionally deep DGZ. Even with that amount of snow, would expect drifts of something like 2-3 feet in favored spots. From a radar perspective, I think this is gonna be a lot like the Jan 2009 event...we watch IND get lit up with heavy banding and it tries to get in here but struggles for any extended period. Maybe we can get into bonus territory if a band sits over us for any extended period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 They are going to bust harder than a diamond. "They" as in EC, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 "They" as in EC, right? Yes, the snow totals won't be that low. Not a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yes, the snow totals won't be that low. Not a chance Exactly what I was thinking. Was noticing the RAP had a touch of lake enhancement around here...could add a couple cm's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nothing would absolutely shock me, not to mention I would be angrier than Ive ever been at the weather. But Id say the odds of getting no snow are like 0.5% at the most lol. It would be like this one time in like 2003 where we were under a WSW when I went to bed, and were forecasted to get 6-10" of snow. I woke up to drizzle and a few very fat and wet flakes trying to stick to the sloppy ground. Absolutely nothing. Of course, getting missed to the south is a lot better than getting missed to the north. There is nothing more depressing in Winter weather than rain and 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not sure what's up with the 4km NAM on the StormVista site Josh was looking at...but the e-wall site and WeatherBell both don't show near those amounts. Its a moot point though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It would be like this one time in like 2003 where we were under a WSW when I went to bed, and were forecasted to get 6-10" of snow. I woke up to drizzle and a few very fat and wet flakes trying to stick to the sloppy ground. Absolutely nothing. Of course, getting missed to the south is a lot better than getting missed to the north. There is nothing more depressing in Winter weather than rain and 33. I remember that...but it was a horrendous forecast. They were calling for it to turn to snow even the models didnt show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 lol, pretty specific there. I'm gonna go with 4-6" for us. I'd go better than standard ratios in this setup but probably less than 15:1 given lack of exceptionally deep DGZ. Even with that amount of snow, would expect drifts of something like 2-3 feet in favored spots. From a radar perspective, I think this is gonna be a lot like the Jan 2009 event...we watch IND get lit up with heavy banding and it tries to get in here but struggles for any extended period. Maybe we can get into bonus territory if a band sits over us for any extended period. Had to add a little local touch. You're usually a little more bullish than me, so no surprise. And Jan 2009 is probably a good "analog" to what we may see. We'll hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Who's ready for dem 6"/hr rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow. Agreement from both NAM and GFS now tonight for a historic blizzard for us here in Columbus, Ohio. Truly amazing, and yet still hard to believe. I am becoming increasingly worried here in SE Suburbs of Columbus that we may see very little snow at all until the very end. NAM/GFS/ HRRR all push the 0*C 850 mb line through the metro and actually even north of Franklin County for several hours in the morning. An interesting outlier is the RAP. The RAP brings the warm air at 850 mb overhead from 12Z to 14Z, but then the greatest 700 mb UVV overspreads the area. The entire column is cooled via dynamic cooling and we change over to snow once again. Now, this is definitely possible, and I hope it happens (for my sake) but I am not sure how logical that is with the 45 to 60kt LLJ pumping the warm air into the system from the SE. This will need to be watched very closely, especially if surface temperatures stay below freezing. I am all about the snow, but ice storms are awful. I spent Christmas Eve at a friends house in 2004 due to that storm. I don't want another ice storm ruining my holidays. At least we have a generator now. 12Z 850 temp/wind 15Z 700 VV 15Z 850 temp/wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 . Canuck what does the 0z GGEM show if it has come out? I don't have access to it lol. Thanks! Haven't checked. Doesn't matter imho. RGEM supersedes it. RGEM GGEM relationship isn't like the the NAM/GFS. RGEM is simply a hi-res version of the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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