snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Have been keeping an eye on the SREF mean. Really hasn't shown the same northwestern adjustment as with the NAM. The below looks fairly similar to the 15z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Interesting NAM...seems like slightly less QPF from the deformation shield, but the trowal eventually extends further west compared to the 18Z run, giving the thumb region more QPF than areas near the OH border, given the trowal hangs on longest there. Probably getting a lil help from Huron as well. That and there is a very decent connection to Atlantic moisture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Have been keeping an eye on the SREF mean. Really hasn't shown the same northwestern adjustment as with the NAM. The below looks fairly similar to the 15z: If you look at the scale we're still in the .75-1.00'' range which is what the NAM and GFS has us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 If you look at the scale we're still in the .75-1.00'' range which is what the NAM and GFS has us in. Yeah, I know. And the NAM has us 1.25"+ on the 0z run. But you're kind of missing my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah, I know. And the NAM has us 1.25"+ on the 0z run. But you're kind of missing my point. The new 00z 4km NAM looks sweet! And maybe a couple of members are skewing the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest snowfall map from the National Weather Service in Indianapolis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The 0z Nam was fairly encouraging to say the least following quite perfectly in line with the current obs. Depending what the 0z RGEM shows and 0z GFS I think I can finally make a conclusion for my area. Hmm...hey canuck the 0z Nam showed 40-50cm LOL. I don't have the access but would someone tell me what the current pressure reading is? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Interesting NAM...seems like slightly less QPF from the deformation shield, but the trowal eventually extends further west compared to the 18Z run, giving the thumb region more QPF than areas near the OH border, given the trowal hangs on longest there. I'm going to monitor this for a Thumb chase... Might have to head over there Thursday Morning to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 The 0z Nam was fairly encouraging to say the least following quite perfectly in line with the current obs. Depending what the 0z RGEM shows and 0z GFS I think I can finally make a conclusion for my area. Hmm...hey canuck the 0z Nam showed 40-50cm LOL. I don't have the access but would someone tell me what the current pressure reading is? Thanks! It's 998 in northern MS. And I'll be bumping my numbers pending the output from those models. Don't think I have to wait for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Highest pressure falls due north of the LP into western TN/near the boothill of MO. Interesting. I'm gonna be up for a while monitoring this thing. It's the in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 The new 00z 4km NAM looks sweet! And maybe a couple of members are skewing the mean It looks like a 1.75" speck right over TO. LOL. Remember, temper your expectations. If we get 5" I don't want to hear bitching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Arkansas report: first 12" report 12/25/2012 0838 PM Vandervoort, Polk County. Heavy snow e12.0 inch, reported by co-op observer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's 998 in northern MS. And I'll be bumping my numbers pending the output from those models. Don't think I have to wait for the EURO. . Alright thanks Canuck, seems inline with the Nam. And yess, based on the trends, I agree with you. I would like to see the RGEM though, lol. Any current preliminary thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 storm track says no way this much snow falls NW into ontario the NAM and SREF and even the euro to some degree have the precip pretty amped up through ontario and eastern ontario with a very impressive trowal and deformation snows. im skeptical....but those 3 on the same page is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone North of Little Rock will see well over 12" totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just for kicks, 0z NAM raw precip totals for Indiana sites. EVV: 1.45" BMG: 1.26" IND: 1.12" MIE: 0.99" HUF: 0.84" OKK: 0.57" FWA: 0.54" GUS: 0.49" LAF: 0.41" SBN: 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It looks like a 1.75" speck right over TO. LOL. Remember, temper your expectations. If we get 5" I don't want to hear bitching. Do you think the TROWAL that is being talked about will make those 6-12'' totals around here a reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 storm track says no way this much snow falls NW into ontario the NAM and SREF and even the euro to some degree have the precip pretty amped up through ontario and eastern ontario with a very impressive trowal and deformation snows. im skeptical....but those 3 on the same page is encouraging. Yeah, I was incredulous as well. Although, with the models becoming more amenable to the idea of the UL going north (or at least along) the Ohio River, I've started to entertain the idea of higher totals. Definitely not thinking 12-18" NAM numbers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That's a top 10 storm for IND. Of course their big snowstorm history is kinda lousy. We need to move to IND. If they get 10" with this one it will be their second 10" in about 4 years. Meanwhile LAF has zero in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Dont usually check out the 4k NAM...but LOL its totals are insane. Has a blob of 1.75"+ over Detroit, 2"+ over St Clair county, and jackpots of 3"+ near Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just for kicks, 0z NAM raw precip totals for Indiana sites. What are your thoughts on ratio, 13:1 ? EVV: 1.45" BMG: 1.26" IND: 1.12" MIE: 0.99" HUF: 0.84" OKK: 0.57" FWA: 0.54" GUS: 0.49" LAF: 0.41" SBN: 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 OK, I think this'll be my last call: LAF: 3-5" IND: 8-11" OKK: 4-7" BMG: 8-11" MIE: 7-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sweet map. Unrealistic? Im sure...BUT its nice to know that eastern MI is safely in the game as we near stormtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 We need to move to IND. If they get 10" with this one it will be their second 10" in about 4 years. Meanwhile LAF has zero in that timeframe. Check out the 4km NAM radar reflectivity. 35-40dbz just to our south at 13z, and then poof on the next frame. Not that I buy it, but it's a real pisser. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/rad14.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 North Little Rock,AR This is what a lot of us will be seeing tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone North of Little Rock will see well over 12" totals... Somewhere, some weather weenie down in Arkansas is getting the Christmas gift of a lifetime tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wouldn't that be a Christmas Miracle for the Golden Horseshoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Tried to find a thread where people in ARK and MO would discuss this storm and post pics. Would be great to see some pics in ARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM wetter, but that's not saying much, considering how dry it was. Absolutely nothing like the NAM. Looks like about 10mm by 12z Thursday here at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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