The_Global_Warmer Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The NAM's qpf is crap. The upper/mid level lows are even further North of 12z in some cases almost 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nam looks decent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Might whiff in se mi lol Although, it is being a touch more stingy on the NW side than I would have thought. The ul is phasing better and is further N than the 18z run, so it's a bit confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nam looks decent.. Indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 lol Just slower. Pardon my anxiousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The timing of this storm has been very interesting for those trying to purchase the bread and milk. With the forecast becoming worse today people didn't really stock up. Now tonight the only places that are open are gas stations and they have all sold out of what little bread and milk they carry. Sorry about my fat finger....agreed. I've said this all day, called our local stores, all closed. Its rare timing down here to have a blizz warning then to be on xmas. No time to. Get supplies for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 lol Although, it is being a touch more stingy on the NW side than I would have thought. The ul is phasing better and is further N than the 18z run, so it's a bit confusing. Yes I am a bit confused by that as well, it would argue more moisture being thrown back over top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just slower. Pardon my anxiousness. I edited my post. The NAM was being a little sluggish so I can understand your reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's kind of funny that folks go for the bread, milk, and eggs before a storm hits - almost as if french toast will be the only food cooked during the storm. I was just thinking about that. I grew up in the country and only once were we snow bound for more two days. We needed the milk because I have a two year old that requires ovaltine before bed and we were out of milk. Besides I feel like biscuits and gravy for breakfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 So this is looking better for Toronto it seems? I may have to up my call to 4-6". I'll wait for the GFS, but I think my 2-5" is looking a little low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 They should have listened to Frankie's advice before the WI storm: "Don't wait until the last minute!! Order your pizza!! Order your Chinese food!!!" Frankie is a sage. I think he might be the old wright-weather katodog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yes I am a bit confused by that as well, it would argue more moisture being thrown back over top. Looks like the NAM misplaces UVV's based on the H5-8 low tracks. But as expected things keep trending more NW. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Took a step back here in the end, despite everything in the upper levels being a bit farther north than the 12z run. Shows what I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Took a step back here in the end, despite everything in the upper levels being a bit farther north than the 12z run. Shows what I know. Nowcasting time. If we're all honest with each other, NAM is garbage starting at 0 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well, I'm pretty much inoculated from a whiff due to a last minute SE shift. Tons of buffer room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Frankie is a sage. I think he might be the old wright-weather katodog. One more OT, then I stop. I saw katodog lurking in this thread yesterday. I didn't know that he was still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nowcasting time. If we're all honest with each other, NAM is garbage starting at 0 hours. It does crush you though. Eh, fails in line with my 2-5" call. Was just hoping for another slight nudge northwest, but that likely won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 From IND... ISSUED AT 843 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIP APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. AFTER EXAMINING SEVERAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LATEST OBS...THINKING THAT WINDOW FOR WINTRY MIX HAS DIMINISHED...AND PRECIP SHOULD BE IN FORM OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT COMMENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PROJECTED START TIME OF 1 TO 3 AM ACROSS THE INDY METRO. ADJUSTED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF FORECAST AREA WITH UPWARDS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES AS A TROWAL SETS UP OVER THAT AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ELSEWHERE...8-10 INCHES OVER THE INDY METRO SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH DECREASING TOTALS IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE WEDNESDAY 7 AM - 1 PM EST TIME FRAME. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WELL INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 10 DEGREES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 It does crush you though. Eh, fails in line with my 2-5" call. Was just hoping for another slight nudge northwest, but that likely won't happen. Yeah, but if it didn't have support from the GFS, it'd be deposited in the garbage. And there definitely was a northward shift at H5, just didn't translate into more juice to the NW for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well, I'm pretty much inoculated from a whiff due to a last minute SE shift. Tons of buffer room. NAM still a beautiful hit for us Toronto folk. EC still sticking with 2-locally 4'' lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hmm I don't know if totals will be that low in NW Ohio, I went with a 6-8" in Toledo That's right around what he is predicting for your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM still a beautiful hit for us Toronto folk. EC still sticking with 2-locally 4'' lol Morning update will have increased amounts pending what the RGEM says. If it's anything like the NAM, might have a WSW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nowcasting time. If we're all honest with each other, NAM is garbage starting at 0 hours. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Interesting NAM...seems like slightly less QPF from the deformation shield, but the trowal eventually extends further west compared to the 18Z run, giving the thumb region more QPF than areas near the OH border, given the trowal hangs on longest there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Morning update will have increased amounts pending what the RGEM says. If it's anything like the NAM, might have a WSW as well. Yeah they really like to hump the GEM and RGEM but seriously if the NAM verifies along with what the 00z GFS might show it would be a very nice late x-mas gift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 A lot of these snowfall forecasts are based on 1-2"+ per hour rates. How realistic is this going to be? I just can't see 10" falling in less than 6 hours. I'm holding firm on a 9" call for CLE storm total. Meant to go back to this. Yeah, it's a fairly "short" duration thump for a lot. Makes you definitely wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Interesting NAM...seems like slightly less QPF from the deformation shield, but the trowal eventually extends further west compared to the 18Z run, giving the thumb region more QPF than areas near the OH border, given the trowal hangs on longest there. Noticed this as well, the models finding ways to give SEMI qpf in many ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well, the system is definitely going North enough for us to get snow at least to the immediate STL metro to the SE. Not sure what the deal is on the model QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I really like the 0z NAM for the Golden Horseshoe...If it were to verify, would be greater amounts than EC's, what I think is a rather low end forecast. Have to see what the 0z GEM brings as they seem to be heavily biased toward it. Hopefully a bit closer to the NAM to bump up our forecast accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Interesting NAM...seems like slightly less QPF from the deformation shield, but the trowal eventually extends further west compared to the 18Z run, giving the thumb region more QPF than areas near the OH border, given the trowal hangs on longest there. I've been pondering that possibility for a while... I think if SEMI is gonna luck out in any way it'll be with an extended period in the trowal that just hangs around. It's been hinted occasionally in the NAM and to some extent the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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