snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 GEFS mean went west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z NAM buries you. Easily over 30 cm. GFS more conservative, but you'll definitely get shovelable snow from this storm. Thanks Mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 GEFS is well the NW of the 12z ensembles... and in fact is still further NW than the OP with the .5 and .75" lines The narrative of this storm has turned around in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The narrative of this storm has turned around in a hurry. Glad that god awful SE trend is done for at least right now... if this thing does phase like the GFS would suggest I gotta imagine that there's going to be a lot of good totals across areas that were sweating it out last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18Z GFS clown maps pokes the 8" contours ever closer to Tippecanoe county. Looks like low is currently near Vicksburg, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 OT, but just to give you how dynamic this system is, Mobile was just hit with a huge tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18Z GFS clown maps pokes the 8" contours ever closer to Tippecanoe county. Looks like low is currently near Vicksburg, MS. 18z NAM got it into the extreme SE corner of the county. GEFS mean QPF has been interesting. 0z and 6z had us 0.10-0.25", 12z had 0.25-0.50", and now the 18z has us in the 0.50-0.75" shading. Let's hope all of this late madness is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks like low is currently near Vicksburg, MS. Yup. Down to 998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yup. Down to 998. Was it supposed to be there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Was it supposed to be there? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Local met talking about up to 2" per hour rates around noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Maybe some lake effect before the system Tommorow? Do parameters look good for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yes. Mike, you've put a lot of effort into tracking this thing. The analysis of the current situation, plus being on top of the latest model runs has been fantastic. I was driving back to LAF tonight, and snuck a few peaks at the board on my phone. Yes I know, not a good thing...but they were brief peaks. One eye on the road... Bottom line, you deserve the pay off in the end. The snowstorm drought up there only makes it more deserved. Good luck my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Maybe some lake effect before the system Tommorow? Do parameters look good for it? No. Winds will have too much northerly component. If anything did develop, it'd be south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No. Winds will have too much northerly component. If anything did develop, it'd be south of us. Hoping for a touch of lake effect in the hammer, not gonna old my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Mike, you've put a lot of effort into tracking this thing. The analysis of the current situation, plus being on top of the latest model runs has been fantastic. I was driving back to LAF tonight, and snuck a few peaks at the board on my phone. Yes I know, not a good thing...but they were brief peaks. One eye on the road... Bottom line, you deserve the pay off in the end. The snowstorm drought up there only makes it more deserved. Good luck my friend. Thank you Tim. Nice to know my amateur analysis is appreciated. I live for this stuff and to be completely shut out of the opportunity to do it for an entire winter (2011-12) has really lit a fire under my feet. Who knows? Could be the last shot this winter as well. Gotta max out every drop of enjoyment. btw...envious you have a phone that has internet accessibility. Gotta get one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hoping for a touch of lake effect in the hammer, not gonna old my breath though. delta ts aren't really that impressive. 850 temps are around -4 to -7 for the majority of this storm. I wouldn't count on much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Thank you Tim. Nice to know my amateur analysis is appreciated. I live for this stuff and to be completely shut out of the opportunity to do it for an entire winter (2011-12) has really lit a fire under my feet. Who knows? Could be the last shot this winter as well. Gotta max out every drop of enjoyment. btw...envious you have a phone that has internet accessibility. Gotta get one of those. Yeah, they got these things call smart phones. All the rage. You can look at models on them. Both kinds. You should look into it. Enjoy the storm. Hopefully it's a good one for all of you Toronto/southern Ontario folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 delta ts aren't really that impressive. 850 temps are around -4 to -7 for the majority of this storm. I wouldn't count on much. We really need -10 to -15 delta T's. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hoping for a touch of lake effect in the hammer, not gonna old my breath though. You could see some enhancement. The added lift in the atmosphere might be able tap into some moisture originating from the lake. Actually 10°C Delta T can be enough to start enhancement. Although the higher the value the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 We really need -10 to -15 delta T's. Jon I think a delta t of 12 is considered the boundary between moderate and marginal instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 several obs of +SN in western/central AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 You could see some enhancement. The added lift in the atmosphere might be able tap into some moisture originating from the lake. I took a look at the local hi-res WRF for him. There's a bit being spit out tomorrow afternoon but again, air is not cold enough and too dry for anything substantial. Might be able to claw together an inch+ locally, especially in the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The GFS keep moving back the 0.10" line ...and the 0.50" line for you in SEMI. 0.25" line almost to GYY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 interesting... Not sure if ratios are going to be that great anywhere it snows, but we should have the best ratios being as far nw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not sure if ratios are going to be that great anywhere it snows, but we should have the best ratios being as far nw? 12:1 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just issued my final snowmap on the blog that me and AppsRunner have been doing for the last 4 years. http://scglweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think it's pretty apparent that the storms in the south are robbing moisture from the northern part of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think it's pretty apparent that the storms in the south are robbing moisture from the northern part of the storm... Where/how is this apparent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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