hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Lol 1" QPF speck over Detroit on the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Correct decision by them. I'd assume they could always upgrade if nec. due to trends. This is gonna come down pretty quick so i dunno what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Lol 1" QPF speck over Detroit on the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 CONGRATS Detroit!.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 403 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL REACH CENTRAL TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE BRING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE TRI CITIES TO TOTALS IN THE 5 TO 7 INCH RANGE FROM THE OHIO BORDER TO THE NORTHERN THUMB. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. MIZ063-070-076-082-083-260930- /O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.121226T1700Z-121227T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.121226T1500Z-121228T1200Z/ ST. CLAIR-MACOMB-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...WARREN...DETROIT... ADRIAN...MONROE 403 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES FALLING DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT ESTIMATED FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS POST HOLIDAY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z RGEM at initialization time had a 1003mb low on the LA/MS border when in reality at 18z the sfc low was 1000mb and on the TX/LA border. It being too weak and too far east could possibly contaminate the rest of the run when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 good luck to all in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No model had Little Rock getting dryslotted. They'll be in the deform later probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No model had Little Rock getting dryslotted. They'll be in the deform later probably. Helluva dry slot in southern ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No model had Little Rock getting dryslotted. They'll be in the deform later probably. I'm guessing this means that the low is tracking farther north than what models had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Through 15, GFS is almost identical in sfc low position to its 12z run. Pcpn shield a bit further to the W. Upper level trough shows more interaction with that s/w over the Dakotas and is slightly deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Through 15, GFS is almost identical in sfc low position to its 12z run. Pcpn shield a bit further to the W. Upper level trough shows more interaction with that s/w over the Dakotas and is slightly deeper. May come in wetter. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS is a bit further west with the deform band than the 18z NAM EDITL What he said ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm guessing this means that the low is tracking farther north than what models had? Starting to fill in as soon as I said that. Yes the deform looks further NW than expected. I wouldn't worry about any lack of snow in your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Another solid run for SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS is a bit further west with the deform band than the 18z NAM EDITL What he said ^ It's a major shift north with the upper low. Almost in OH this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 May come in wetter. We'll see It will. Question is a little or a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It will. Question is a little or a lot. Great trends in the models this x-mas afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Didn't see it posted, i'm under a blizzard warning now. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 346 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 .A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SKIM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A POTENT WINTER STORM TO THE REGION WITH HEAVY SNOW AND WIND EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK. CLOSER TO THE LOW...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060-061-260500- /O.CAN.KILN.WS.W.0002.121226T0600Z-121227T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KILN.BZ.W.0001.121226T0600Z-121227T0600Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE- DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE- MONTGOMERY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... BROOKVILLE...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY... BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD... EATON...DAYTON 346 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN UPGRADED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN UPGRADED. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 1 AM CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. LARGE DRIFTS COULD CAUSE SOME ROADS TO BECOME IMPASSABLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND...OR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. CHECK WITH LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR CURRENT ROAD CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Even the RGEM, although drier than these models, now has the H5 low in New York State at 48 hours! Every preceding run had the upper low tracking off the Jersey coast south of LI. This might be the fundamental change I was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Great trends in the models this x-mas afternoon! Seriously bro. This could be huge. 1.00" ttl qpf line on the GFS ends up kissing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Seriously bro. This could be huge. 1.00" ttl qpf line on the GFS ends up kissing us. Finally a trend that goes in our favor but I know it's still early to make it official Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS joins the party....westward ho with qpf in MI. harry would be an advisory now...and the 0.50"+ line safely over DTW (probably to ARB). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Finally a trend that goes in our favor but I know it's still early to make it official Through 21z, everything is unfolding down in ARKLATEX like the 18z NAM showed, so, that's a start towards making this a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My point click forecast...3-5 inches tomorrow...7-11 tomorrow...What is IND smoking??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What are the chances the severe weather in the south could cut off some of the moisture coming north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Through 21z, everything is unfolding down in ARKLATEX like the 18z NAM showed, so, that's a start towards making this a reality. Is this storm going to make it up here? What did the 18z NAM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What are the chances the severe weather in the south could cut off some of the moisture coming north? zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My point click forecast...3-5 inches tomorrow...7-11 tomorrow...What is IND smoking??? I guess some people are just never happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is this storm going to make it up here? What did the 18z NAM show? 18z NAM buries you. Easily over 30 cm. GFS more conservative, but you'll definitely get shovelable snow from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GEFS is well the NW of the 12z ensembles... and in fact is still further NW than the OP with the .5 and .75" lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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