calculus1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I will take that .5" of what ever falls. Seeing how I have assumed all along that my area was out anything winter.. Yeah, me too. But, I think we have to take into account that the GFS is not really a high-resolution model. I think we'll still be lucky just to see a few flakes or sleet pellets fall from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 35 degree here so it will not take much cooling to get to freezing. Things look good for the mountains. Maybe even the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have a feeling that those along the very western edges of the foothills are in for a big surprize later tonight. Whether it's snow, sleet or zr, there will be some type of wintry precip, and given the current temp trends as well as models picking up on colder 850's than earlier thought it could be a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No doubt. Sure is nice to see however. Sounding for KFQD show all levels above 0c. Should be fun to watch this pan out Yeah, me too. But, I think we have to take into account that the GFS is not really a high-resolution model. I think we'll still be lucky just to see a few flakes or sleet pellets fall from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have a feeling that those along the very western edges of the foothills are in for a big surprize later tonight. Whether it's snow, sleet or zr, there will be some type of wintry precip, and given the current temp trends as well as models picking up on colder 850's than earlier thought it could be a decent amount. I just watched the futurecast model from WXII, bubble of all snow in Wilkes FWIW. Certainty won't expect that so I don't get my hopes up. Just looking for the sound of sleet tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18Z NAM with a cold 850 layer nudged up against the mountains at hour 12: That's the gfs, and interestingly both the nam, nam 4km and the gfs have all trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's the gfs, and interestingly both the nam, nam 4km and the gfs have all trended colder. Yep. Typo on my part. Thanks! I'll fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Dam I'm in that pocket down here. I know it won't happen but sure feels right. Never got above 46 here today...currently a raw 43! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hey Mark! Man I hope you see some flakes tonight! How's the family? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 39 over a DP of 32. I wish that DP were lower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 39 over a DP of 32. I wish that DP were lower... 36 over a DP of 28 in my backyard. Boone and Jefferson have now dropped to 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 36 over a DP of 28 in my backyard. Boone and Jefferson have now dropped to 32 degrees. You gonna have to stay up late you should see some flakes after midnight...I got a fishing tournament in the morning..should be great weather.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 hmm somehow I didn't even see this thread, but posted about this event in another thread earlier today so I'lll copy and paste: As moist as the pattern is, it only took a small change in temps to create a potential big problem on area roads. A cold trend is obvious on forecast models and projected soundings overnight for Western NC folks (even in eastern sections now on 12z and 18z runs), and that's all it has taken to flip the script on this system from all rain to some mixture of rain/sleet and snow. The problem is that with the timing (evening), roads like Highway 64 near Cashiers and Highlands could have problems tonight with some heavy snow/sleet in a few places for a time. It looks like a front-end thump (probably 3-6 maybe 9 hour window) sleet/snow and poss. frz rain is going to happen IN SOME AREAS west and southwest of Asheville, especially along the Balsam Mountain area in and around the counties of Macon (Franklin), southern Jackson (Highlands, Glenville Mtns, Cashiers), Haywood (Clyde, Waynesville, Cataloochee Mtn, Canton areas) and even possibly in Buncombe in Western NC this evening/overnight between the hours of 6pm and 3am... Checked forecast soundings and there is a decent cold layer sufficient for frozen for a time and some evap. cooling will cause temperatures to hover between 31 & 33 in the low-levels for the areas mentioned above. Also, the warm layer above 5,000ft could keep most places liquid or at least inconsistent frozen. Both NAM and GFS thermal profiles are similar. 0z model runs were only slightly warmer, but they were close enough in the mid-levels to mention this possibility as well, especially once some evaporative cooling is realized. 12z and 18z solutions have trended much colder with the sub-freezing layer yo around 0c to -2C in places. Also, precip. falling in areas where mid-level to low-level cold air gets trapped (could be around the Balsams) may be the wildcard for more sleet or snow than is expected in other forecasts. On the flip of that, heavy precip rates will eventually lead to a warming situation where the warm layer is eventually pulled down to the surface in spots... bullying the cold layer and using the moderate to heavy precip to make that happen. The interesting part is that, due to the amount of moisture, this system could create sizable snowflakes for a time, especially if the mid-level to low-level cold gets trapped and doesn't get over-powered very quickly. I've seen this exact thing happen in the past for the areas/towns mentioned in Jackson, Transylvania, Haywood and Buncombe counties. Since the layer of cold won't be all that established or cold, there will be some areas of all rain as well (no surprise of course)... then, the warm will win the battle in some areas (not others) by late night or very early Saturday Unless you have 4-wheel drive, watch out on some of the highways in Western NC this evening and overnight, but rain will probably melt whatever falls early on in the evening. edit: I wouldn't be surprised at all to hear reports of light sleet or some light-moderate snow mixing in with rain across Upstate counties of Oconee, Pickens and even portions of Greenville County this evening... even if this does happen for a short time, a changeover to all rain will occur in Upstate SC towns once a warmer layer air is pulled down vertically with some heavier precipitation rates later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Andy homey..Kendra says a little sleet mixing in tonight in upstate...you agree? Wouldn't surprise me a bit..I can feel it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Andy homey..Kendra says a little sleet mixing in tonight in upstate...you agree? Wouldn't surprise me a bit..I can feel it! Lol yessir... I posted the same on FB earlier... called out good ole Oconee hope you see some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sup Hoss. I also hope to see some flake action tonight but you know how it works aroud here. Thanks for asking about the fam.. Rollercoaster of sickness since last Friday that has got all three of us. My Little 3 1/2 year old is currtenly running a fever around 100 or so.. awesome.. Hey Mark! Man I hope you see some flakes tonight! How's the family? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sup Hoss. I also hope to see some flake action tonight but you know how it works aroud here. Thanks for asking about the fam.. Rollercoaster of sickness since last Friday that has got all three of us. My Little 3 1/2 year old is currtenly running a fever around 100 or so.. awesome.. hope she feels better Mark and hope you see some flakeage... I think you will actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Temp still hovering around 33 or 34 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 wow it's already below the forecasted nws's low. thankyou calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Good luck to everyone out west. Here in CLT we're sitting at a wetbulb of 35 which means all rain for us. Maybe we can get lucky and I'll spot a few rebel flakes. AccuPro maps didn't look bad for the foothills with around a half inch of snow for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 35 over 29. Blacksburg is starting to breath a little heavier now...they usually don't make much distinction between the Piedmont and Foothills...unless its a noteworthy event. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 700 PM EST Friday Dec 28 2012 Synopsis... low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf Coast region overnight...then move northeast and intensify along the middle Atlantic and New England coastline Saturday into Sunday. This storm will bring another wintry mix of precipitation to the foothills and mountains tonight into Saturday...with a cold rain across most of the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Steady goes it here. Just waiting for the precip to start. By the looks of the radar we are getting some evap cooling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 36.4 over 32. How do you calculate wet bulb value? Or do you have to just find those off of soundings/charts somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 36.4 over 32. How do you calculate wet bulb value? Or do you have to just find those off of soundings/charts somewhere? A good rule of thumb is it's usually somewhere between your DP and temp. I use an addon for Chrome/Firefox which calculates it. For Chrome https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/weather-watcher-live/migekhbneabjkfadmgpimohcoclbbcfp For FireFox https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/weather-watcher-live/?src=search Once installed go to Options ------> Station and put in your zip then choose your station Then go to Toolbar Tip and make sure Wetbulb is checked. When you hover over the incon beside your address bar it will then tell you your wetbulb and anything else you have clicked though for some reason daily rainfall doesn't work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Going to Birmingham tomorrow, hope to see some flurries!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 36.4 over 32. How do you calculate wet bulb value? Or do you have to just find those off of soundings/charts somewhere? Here is a great table: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc This is the wet bulb calculator from the table: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_rh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Somebody please correct me but, a simple "none official" way is to add temp and dew point and then divide by two. Basically meet in the middle. So 36 temp and 32 dew point would be around 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Temp is dropping here in Charlotte pretty fast. Down to 36 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Down to 35 with a dew point of 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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