BIG FROSTY Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is warmer than NAM for Saturday night event. By Sunday good upslope, has -10 850's in eastern TN bumped up against the Smokies and Blue ridge. Minor event/novelity at best, be the second rain IMBY in a week with temps in the 30's the entire event. Hopefully the mid week system next week can produce. I thought this was coming in friday night/ saturday morning? What did temps look like here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's a early Saturday event with evap. cooling by sunrise. GFS has always been warmer than the others I believe. 24 hours out, I am going with the NAM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here is the most hated map...0z GFS did increase whatever its spitting out eastward. 1 inch near northern foothills...last run bare...even in part of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yes I am liking this also for the mountains. Maybe we see a little bit of everything. One thing is if the precip comes in at just the right time and there is enough cooling thing things in the mountains will go down hill in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yes I am liking this also for the mountains. Maybe we see a little bit of everything. One thing is if the precip comes in at just the right time and there is enough cooling thing things in the mountains will go down hill in a hurry. I liked the discussion out of Greenville. Not sure how long you would be in the "sleet happy zone" because 3,500ft is 1,000ft over their estimated snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I liked the discussion out of Greenville. Not sure how long you would be in the "sleet happy zone" because 3,500ft is 1,000ft over their estimated snow line. Ya I no. These systems coming from the south are always tricky. Fun but tricky. This could be one of those storms were we have some freezing rain then sleet then snow which would cause a major problem on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 2-4 inches of snow expected in the northern mountains of NC. Overnight Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then snow. Low around 30. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Rain showers and snow, becoming all rain after 11am. High near 38. Breezy, with a west wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday A chance of snow showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sometimes these things are look out your window and see what it is doing. We shoud have a better picture tomorrow morning or not. Either way I like snow on the tail end and a wintry mix possible on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I thought this was coming in friday night/ saturday morning? What did temps look like here? Meant Fri night/Sat.am.. Been off work all week so that will be my excuse for not paying attn to timeframes. I would trust the NAM thermal profile over the GFS inside 48 hours, espeacilly when taking any kind of elevation into consideration. It's higher resolution IMO has performed pretty well for our region (wnc) handling BL and surface temp issues compared to the global once inside 36-48 hrs. This isn't always the case and tomorrow we can look at other short range models and seek some consensus with the nam to make sure it's not on it's own. The GFS if I remember correctly had 2m temps about 36-37 down my way and 33-34 in northern foothills. So like others have said your gonna need moderate+ returns to get the white stuff down to the surface. surface winds stay out of north the entire time, but their just pulling stagnant air from mid atlantic down into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think the mtns of wnc will be happy with this event. 6z nam looks to me like snow/sleet for pretty much all the 3k+ ft elevation areas. 6z nam shows a nice pocket of sub zero 850s lined up right along the mtns. And like others have alluded to, I also like nam thermal profile forecasting ability within 24-30 hrs of event. Heck if the 6z nam does verify I think someone in far ne ga could get some winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE 349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. * HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT ICE ACCRETION ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH... ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ICE ACCUMULATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. LOCATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LITTLE OR NO ICE. * IMPACTS...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET COULD CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ADVISORY AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETION ON TOP OF THE SLEET AND SNOW MAY CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Allready a winter wonderland in the northern mtns: Check out the view from top of sugar. Slopes have really recovered fast the past couple of days. Thinking about heading up in the a.m. http://www.skisugar.com/sugarlive/indextop.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Well had snow in the forecast for a few hours! Now the morning package taketh it away... lol .TONIGHT...RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That pocket is getting larger in swnc . 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That pocket is getting larger in swnc . Sure is, I'm hoping to pick up a quick couple inches before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This could make a real mess in the mountains. This maybe more snow to ice to snow again in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Andy just posted some good info about this storm in the pinned thread. I am going to ask and see if we cannot get this thread pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z nam throws a huge bone to the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 And another! I will say there is a warm nose around 800mb. Each run the warm nose has gotten smaller and smaller. The 12z and 18z soundings for Franklin have kept the column sub freezing from 825 to just above the surface for the entire event. Hopefully this trend continues and we can stay snow and sleet happy back this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hmmmmm, this looks interesting. May not be cold at all levels but it's probably snow in the Northern MTNS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 317 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 NCZ003-019-VAZ032>035-045>047-292030- SURRY-WILKES-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX- BUCKINGHAM- 317 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE TO ONE OR TWO INCHES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not sure if the NAM 4km is very accurate but it looks really cold wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Few Airport Readings... 33 Boone 37 North Wilkesboro 39 Mount Airy 41 Statesville 41 Winston Salem 43 Asheville 45 Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Few last minute changes... Raysweather adding snow/sleet/rain mix into western Surry and western Wilkes... WXII mentioning 0.1 accumulation for North Wilkesboro and Mount Airy...better chance western Wilkes, western Surry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18Z GFS with a cold 850 layer nudged up against the mountains at hour 12: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Digging into the lee side.. Thanks for posting!! This gives me hope south of you. 18Z NAM with a cold 850 layer nudged up against the mountains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's the 18Z GFS snowfall forecast for hour 18. It's creeping eastward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I will take that .5" of what ever falls. Seeing how I have assumed all along that my area was out anything winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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