BIG FROSTY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 00z cmc has noting but rain, some snow in western Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro is goes from S LA at hr72 to well off the NC coast at 96. 850s look supportive of some type of won try precip I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the euro looks pretty weak when it's over land. upper-level features don't help much also, in deepening the low when it's over land also. about to write this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Will see what happens, but verbatim the northern foothills is snow on the Euro, GFS is getting there. I am expecting to see a wild mix here. Going to be interesting for sure. Any accumulations will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro came in wetter for this weekend's storm but not colder. As Brandon pointed out this could be good for folks in higher elevations as the more moisture you get it could cool down the column enough to create the white stuff we love so much. It does look wetter. Based off the EURO snow maps on Wunderground...looks better for western NC from previous runs. event start hour 57... 1 inch with spotty 2 inch for Cherokee to Franklin to Cullowhee... hour 60... 1 inch Wilkesboro to Mount Airy westward...2 inch for Boone, Stone Mountain, Sparta, 3 inches west of Sparta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well here we are...the day after tomorrow and it starts...guess I will throw out a forecast: light accumulation for the mountains at least... slop/mix in the foothills...possibly a light coating if it comes down heavy enough... Piedmont...Winston...Greensboro...north and west...Moderate chance of some snow mixing in with rain at least briefly...but no accumulation. I think it will be a interesting day for sure...and thread worthy...for observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looking more and more like the mountains might need to wait for northwest flow behind the system; and, lower elevations can forget about it. Euro still insists on a dynamic little system with a cooling column, which would bring WAA snow to the mountains and rain changing to snow at lower elevations of East TN and even the NC Piedmont. However the GFS and WRF still insist on a weaker positively tilted trough - horrendous for snow with these marginal temps. Now within 48 hours we can't just punt the WRF/NAM. I'm not trying to be a Scrooge here; I was hoping. However I think the mountains will see some snow again. Cheers! Euro just punted too. Mountains only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Blacksburg Believe precipitation will start off as rain as it enters the mountains around midnight...but will transition to snow above 2500 feet as the low levels of the atmosphere undergo evaporative cooling. Models are also suggesting a few hours of sleet or freezing rain developing across the mountains in North Carolina...where temperatures are expected to start the night out at the freezing mark. Wintry precipitation is then expected change back over to rain after sunrise as warmer air builds into the area ahead of the approaching trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Greenville As the shortwave approaches...a weak surface low is prognosticated to develop in vicinity of the lower MS valley Friday...and quickly track east to the Carolina coastal waters by midday Saturday. The system will pick up some Gulf moisture...and bring a solid period of moist isentropic lift across the County warning forecast area...starting Friday evening and exiting to the east by Saturday afternoon. The latest model consensus has trended a bit wetter with this system. With an average of 0.25 to 0.5" of quantitative precipitation forecast in the mountains...and generally 0.25" or less across the Piedmont. This has implications on winter weather concerns...as the NAM and GFS forecast soundings continue to show potential for a wintry mix as precipitation moves in overnight. Taking a blend of the profiles and using the top-down method for p-type...I do get some accumulating sleet/freezing rain in the high elevations in the 00z to 06z time frame. The top-down does seem to be a bit sleet-Happy though...as forecast soundings show profiles becoming nearly isothermal at 0c...turning the precipitation to more of an elevation-dependent rain/snow setup by daybreak...when the heaviest precipitation is expected to occur 06z to 12z. This could mean that elevations above about 5000 feet could receive almost all snow through the event...and pick up several inches. How much accumulate of frozen precipitation in the lower elevations is still highly uncertain at this point. Temperatures will be hovering in the low-middle 30s in the mountains and generally middle-upper 30s in the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 As we near this event this is what I was hoping was going to start to show up on some of the short range models. Here is the 18z nam picking up pockets of 32 850 temps over western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Good luck sir! As we near this event this is what I was hoping was going to start to show up on some of the short range models. Here is the 18z nam picking up pockets of 32 850 temps over western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 No way the northern foothills hit the upper 40s Saturday...not happening. There would have to be a record heat wind shift from the south-west to remove the clouds/fog/precip in the morning. Not happening. Weather.com/NOAA/Wunderground/WXII/...all out to lunch. Toss them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GSP has my area a 50 for Saturday with a low of 29... I agree, while it is precipitating temps will be in the 30's I think we may have a mixed bag in the foothills if we can stay clear for a while tomorrow night so temps can fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GSP has my area a 50 for Saturday with a low of 29... Mark you may get to 50 in southern foothills? But I think that would occur after the rain stops.. I meant the northern foothills as far as temps staying in the 30's will raining or whatever, after the precip tapers off it will def warm up some... Now this is just my guess GSP knows a lot more than a snowman!!! lol Here's RNK updated forecast for my area! They saying mid 40's which will probably happen if the precip moves out that morning, and get the clouds to break? FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW WITH RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING... THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I agree with that. Your location might get a nice surprise. Looks like getting a surpise might be the only way to go this year Mark you may get to 50 in southern foothills? But I think that would occur after the rain stops.. I meant the northern foothills as far as temps staying in the 30's will raining or whatever, after the precip tapers off it will def warm up some... Now this is just my guess GSP knows a lot more than a snowman!!! lol Here's RNK updated forecast for my area! They saying mid 40's which will probably happen if the precip moves out that morning, and get the clouds to break? FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW WITH RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING... THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 This implies wintry mix across the board...time to get sleet happy if your in the northern foothills. .FORECAST SUMMARY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT...AND BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS IT TAPERS OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHICH WILL STAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Accumulations just got added into the forecast in parts of the foothills...for my location in Wilkes. Varies from west to east and north to south. Friday Night Rain before 4am, then rain and snow. Low around 33. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain showers. High near 46. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday Night A slight chance of snow showers between midnight and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Reality Ray says not so quick foothills! Ray's Weather Center Seasonably cold but quiet night. Partly sunny Friday & not as cold. Some rain FRI nite-SAT, except some snow above 3,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Reality Ray says not so quick foothills! Ray's Weather Center Seasonably cold but quiet night. Partly sunny Friday & not as cold. Some rain FRI nite-SAT, except some snow above 3,000 feet. He is going w/ 33 degree rain for Wilkesboro after going to his site. Colder spots in Wilkes/Surry may have a chance...probably doesn't even need to be freezing to get some sleet down initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The WNC Saturday Night Speacil is showing up on Radar now out in the ArkLaTex region. Hopefully you northern foothill guys along with the mtns can get some slush out of this. Sidenote: Big Frosty I was up at the in-laws farm today doing some work (200 acres across from Cross Creek Country Club). I think that's the name of the CC, Anyway I'll yell next time I get up that way and try to meet face to face for 5 minutes/lunch or so. The wind was Cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Nam is a torch at 800mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The WNC Saturday Night Speacil is showing up on Radar now out in the ArkLaTex region. Hopefully you northern foothill guys along with the mtns can get some slush out of this. Sidenote: Big Frosty I was up at the in-laws farm today doing some work (200 acres across from Cross Creek Country Club). I think that's the name of the CC, Anyway I'll yell next time I get up that way and try to meet face to face for 5 minutes/lunch or so. The wind was Cold! That sounds good!!! Was you in Pilot Mtn. Or Mt.Airy? Pilot is Pilot Knob CC... Cross Creek CC is in Mt.Airy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM at 33 hours is VERY close for WNC at 850 mb. If the precip is heavy enough im thinking it will fall as snow, especially above 3,000 ft. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Blacksburg...most promising thing they have said so far. Read it while it lasts. Precipitation may initially be in the form of rain if onset of rain begins by/before evening while boundary layer quite warm...but should gradually transition over to wet snow as the evening/night progresses across the higher terrain and areas along/north of Highway 460 as dynamic cooling and wet bulb processes drive any lingering warm nose isothermally back to near/just below freezing. Forecast soundings imply that low level temperatures may be sufficiently cooled by/toward daybreak Saturday to run risk of mix/changeover to snow in the mountain Empire...and perhaps across the Southside Virginia Piedmont into the northern NC counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Mountain areas may have something tomorrow...maybe more but not likely. Combined threat of snow and wind across at least the western and northern portions of the Blacksburg forecast area may eventually warrant posting of a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory...but confidence in storm track and intensification...which will strongly influence depth of warm nose across southwestern counties...and how quickly boundary layer can cool in all areas... not yet at the point to Post either other than to continue to reference in the hazardous weather outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That sounds good!!! Was you in Pilot Mtn. Or Mt.Airy? Pilot is Pilot Knob CC... Cross Creek CC is in Mt.Airy Mount Airy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not sure if we have posters from this area...but I believe its part of our region. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTH MISSISSIPPI. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS IN CASE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Chance of measurable ice...before transitioning. Up to 30% in the Boone area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is warmer than NAM for Saturday night event. By Sunday good upslope, has -10 850's in eastern TN bumped up against the Smokies and Blue ridge. Minor event/novelity at best, be the second rain IMBY in a week with temps in the 30's the entire event. Hopefully the mid week system next week can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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