WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Figured I would go ahead and invest in some stock for this weeks storm before my man Cold Rain got around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS vs. EURO Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Based off the limited EURO snow maps I am looking at... hour 117 snow chance for western NC hour 120 snow chance Greensboro north-east hour 123 snow chance Raleigh north-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Based off the limited EURO snow maps I am looking at... hour 117 snow chance for western NC hour 120 snow chance Greensboro north-east hour 123 snow chance Raleigh north-east Based on Burns Experience Algorithm: hour 177 some high elevation snow possible NW hour 120 snow chance Greensboro north-east nada hour 123 snow chance Raleigh north-east less than nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 This could get interesting...within the prime zone of the EURO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hi guys sorry to be MIA lately, work and 4 kids have kept me pretty busy! But here is a brief discussion on the upcoming storm impacts. Hope to write more over the coming week. http://www.examiner.com/article/severe-weather-possible-tomorrow-snow-by-this-weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Thanks and Merry Christmas Allan, look forward to hearing from you over the next several days. Hopefully one or both of these2 long shots pan out during our window of oppurtunity. I just hope the euro/euro ensembles trump the gfs this weekend like they normally do. Knowing our luck this would be the one time the gfs actually scores one of it's 1 in 1000 coups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Fist snowflakes of the season in the forecast from Raysweather... The next low moves across the Southeast Saturday with rain. This one may be far enough south/east to produce a few snowflakes in the foothills. It's still tool early to know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hmmm...this is interesting 12z Euro @96 (almost looked like someone photoshopped the 850's in WNC.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hmmm...this is interesting 12z Euro @96 (almost looked like someone photoshopped the 850's in WNC.) I'm sure our East Tennessee posters are just thrilled with the warm nose from Chattanooga up to Knoxville, but it does look nice on the eastern side of the mountains. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro bombs out around 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Would love to see 102 and 108. Asheville to Greensboro to Richmond look pretty good on this run I would think. One thing though, it would be a very fast mover. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 EURO hour 93 snow chance south-western NC hour 96 snow chance all of western NC, 2 inch pockets Burnsville to Linville hour 99 snow chance Asheville to Mount Airy hour 102 in Virginia Not sure about central NC...didn't come up on Wunderground...could be a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Liking the Euro since I will be in the AVL area this weekend- the mountains should pick up at least a few inches if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Great trends for this weekend event, especially for North Carolina and Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EURO hour 93 snow chance south-western NC hour 96 snow chance all of western NC, 2 inch pockets Burnsville to Linville hour 99 snow chance Asheville to Mount Airy hour 102 in Virginia Not sure about central NC...didn't come up on Wunderground...could be a mix. Raleigh is rain, GSO looks close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Raleigh is rain, GSO looks close. Looks like it. Maybe a few days of trending will help. Not sure if this is too much, but could be a 3-6 inch event for western NC IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks like it. Maybe a few days of trending will help. Not sure if this is too much, but could be a 3-6 inch event for western NC IMO. QPF is around 0.3" for AVL and GSO, probably 1-2". Nice little event to end the year if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 JMA is more supressed than Euro, colder too, light precip makes it to GSO. Got to love the JMA! http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Liking the Euro since I will be in the AVL area this weekend- the mountains should pick up at least a few inches if it verifies. Nice Cheez! The mountains are beautiful this time of the year. I realy like our chances coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18Z GFS still showing the double LP solution that seems to keep most everybody in the SE in the rain sector. The northern low is at 1008 mb, but it's still showing up stronger than the southern low at 1012 mb. GFS holding strong to this solution. Let's hope it's wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 why is it so quite in hear? a little while ago it sounded like snow for wnc on the 30th. what happened, have we already lost that chance. where is the cold air that was to be hear by now? seems things keep getting pushed back everytime we reach the timeframe the cold is to be here. Oh well. same old same old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 why is it so quite in hear? a little while ago it sounded like snow for wnc on the 30th. what happened, have we already lost that chance. where is the cold air that was to be hear by now? seems things keep getting pushed back everytime we reach the timeframe the cold is to be here. Oh well. same old same old. It's Christmas. And I think most are waiting for the GFS to bulge before joining the EURO side...if it ever does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS running...already looking different w/ my untrained eye so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS running...already looking different w/ my untrained eye so far. Much more like the euro, probably gonna hit the NE much harder though. And 850's are too warm everywhere for snow on the gfs, I think the euro is to cold with it so I wouldn't be surprized to see a solution like the gfs where we get all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Much more mountain friendly...and VA friendly this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The GFS is much closer to being a nice little snow for WNC West of 77 and North of 85, this run than previous runs. The Gulf low, albeit weak, tracks almost perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Much more like the euro, probably gonna hit the NE much harder though. And 850's are too warm everywhere for snow on the gfs, I think the euro is to cold with it so I wouldn't be surprized to see a solution like the gfs where we get all rain. Does look a little too warm. Can we trend the CAD areas any colder four days out? I just don't see a true source of cold air...its going to be marginal to get this wet snow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 More than likely a Elevation storm, with rain in the foothills on east. Most times with no apparent high to the north funneling down from the north the air temps just cannot be counted on to stay cold enough for snow. It may start as a little snow but will very quickly change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 hour 90 spit out...need to trend things cooler...if its even possible now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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