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Good riddance 2012. Rockin 2013? Obs and Banter


Bob Chill

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...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR

THE GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG.

* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.

* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT

9 AM THURSDAY WAS 17.9 FEET.

* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.3 FEET BY

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...WATER THREATENS SEVERAL HOMES SOUTH OF

LEESBURG. HIGHWAY 15 WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE CLOSED.

* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 18.9 FEET

ON MAY 12 2008.

&&

RIVER FLOOD OBSERVED 2PM 8PM 2AM 8AM CREST

LOCATION STAGE STG DAY TIME THU THU FRI FRI STG DAY TIME

GOOSE CREEK

LEESBURG 12.0 17.9 THU 9 AM 18.3 15.2 12.0 8.5 18.3 THU 1 PM

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Ended up with 3.96" in the bucket.  Lot's of localized flooding with trees starting to drop due to the winds and saturated soil.  Peak gust is 53mph at 5:15am but there have been two gusts over 50mph since then.  Temps down to 36.9F.  Interesting, the ground is still frozen 1/2" under the mushy top layer.  There is water ponding on grassy areas that I have never seen it do so before since it can't penetrate the ice layer.  Here's the MPE image for the last 24 hours:

 

attachicon.gifpast24.png

Amazing....that was my storm total too, 3.96 inches.  Must be a record broken for that.  Either for January or a winter month storm total.  Was anyone seeing this kind of output on the models the last couple of days?

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

643 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF

WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATING AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN WAVE HAS CLEARED THE AREA

SOONER THAN EXPECTED. APPEARS VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS

SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT

VEERING TO THE NW AND STRONG CAA CONTINUING...EXPECT THE SNOW

SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LAST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE RIDGES.

ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE...TEMPS START TO FALL OFF

AGAIN AND SFC WINDS PICK UP.

A LAKE BAND HAS DEVELOPED NEAR CLEVELAND AND IS RAPIDLY SPREADING

EASTWARD. WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKES AND THE FLOW

HAVING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE SNOW

ADVISORY FOR MY THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

SFC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS

WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL

KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE AREAS AND OVER THE

RIDGES. WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...

INVERSION WILL LOWER AND SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL

DRY OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE TODAY OR SLOWLY FALL WITH

COLD POOL REMAINING OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS

ENDING AND CONTINUED QUITE COLD.

NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW LIKELY FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES

AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL

THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL

DIMINISH AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INCREASES BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB.

WHILE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MONDAY...00Z

GFS/ECMWF PLUS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CLIPPER

MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF

SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PATTERN STILL LOOKS

UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT

ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE

IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRYING ALL LOCATIONS OUT. ANOTHER

SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH

THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL REMAIN

BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

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