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Good riddance 2012. Rockin 2013? Obs and Banter


Bob Chill

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

643 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF

WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATING AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN WAVE HAS CLEARED THE AREA

SOONER THAN EXPECTED. APPEARS VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS

SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT

VEERING TO THE NW AND STRONG CAA CONTINUING...EXPECT THE SNOW

SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LAST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE RIDGES.

ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE...TEMPS START TO FALL OFF

AGAIN AND SFC WINDS PICK UP.

A LAKE BAND HAS DEVELOPED NEAR CLEVELAND AND IS RAPIDLY SPREADING

EASTWARD. WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKES AND THE FLOW

HAVING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE SNOW

ADVISORY FOR MY THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

SFC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS

WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL

KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE AREAS AND OVER THE

RIDGES. WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...

INVERSION WILL LOWER AND SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL

DRY OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE TODAY OR SLOWLY FALL WITH

COLD POOL REMAINING OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS

ENDING AND CONTINUED QUITE COLD.

NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW LIKELY FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES

AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL

THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL

DIMINISH AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INCREASES BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB.

WHILE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MONDAY...00Z

GFS/ECMWF PLUS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CLIPPER

MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF

SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PATTERN STILL LOOKS

UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT

ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE

IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRYING ALL LOCATIONS OUT. ANOTHER

SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH

THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL REMAIN

BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

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