clueless Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 0Z GFS is like deja vu hrs 132-168 next week what we just went through this week Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Well, the precip is king over temps in Jan is about to literally get washed down the storm drain. 1.5"+ on 12z gfs for next week. Too bad it's going to be 20 degrees above freezing. I don't agree with this. In the past month I've had one event that hasn't been all or partly frozen. That was the Monday night rain two weeks ago. The next night had some freezing rain. Other than that, any time there's been precip, it's been snow. Wait, there was a bit of rain with the cold front after the warmup. Put it this way, if we get precip from Dec 15 to Feb 15, 7 of 10 will be all or partly frozen. Just because we get a fluke rainer doesn't mean we are all of a sudden in a stormy pattern. Our problem is and has been a lack of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 And a lil FRZ RN love at 33 and 36... looks like up to .1" QPF before the warm air warms us above 32 I think this has the chance to be messy. These roads are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I think this has the chance to be messy. These roads are cold. Timing will make this interesting. At least the rest of the run of the GFS has some precip to look for. And I will take the washout this week. Anything except cold and dry. Wreaks havoc on the skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 0Z GFS is like deja vu hrs 132-168 next week what we just went through this week Yep. First clipper has looked ok upstairs for a couple days. Surface panels are juicing up now. Let's hope the trends keep the vort below us. Too close to get overly interested yet. Lotsa changes due. Midweek rainer isn't close to being resolved yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 I don't agree with this. In the past month I've had one event that hasn't been all or partly frozen. That was the Monday night rain two weeks ago. The next night had some freezing rain. Other than that, any time there's been precip, it's been snow. Wait, there was a bit of rain with the cold front after the warmup. Put it this way, if we get precip from Dec 15 to Feb 15, 7 of 10 will be all or partly frozen. Just because we get a fluke rainer doesn't mean we are all of a sudden in a stormy pattern. Our problem is and has been a lack of storms.You're taking me too seriously. I posted in banter because the irony of the fact that the only high qpf storms are all rain and this one is on the heels of an anomalous cold snap. It comical among other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Pretty sunrise this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Pretty sunrise this morning. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1359291185.854704.jpg Beautiful picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 My friend frank looked back at his stats for where he lives in Waldorf since 1999 to see how many times we have had 4 days consecutive days when the temp didn't rise above 32. For those thinkint this cold spell sucked. It's been a pretty doggone good one. Days below freezing ( 32 and blow) Consecutive days below freezing2013 4 42012 0 02011 2 22010 12009 3 32008 12007 3-4 Feb ice storm 32006 02005 6 3 and 22004 7 22003 4 3 in Jan 1 in Mar2002 02001 12000 7 31999 33 consecutive days occurred 3 times, all days in Jan except as noted. Average per year around 2 days. Did not correlate whether it was snowing or snow on ground. So 4 hasnt happened for quite a while, longer than these records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Nobody wants to talk about tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Very impressive, Wes! The cold spell certainly didn't suck though I would have liked more snow. Frankly I don't think I remember a deep freeze lasting quite this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Nobody wants to talk about tomorrow morning? I haven't looked at it much, but from what I've seen, isn't the precip stays west of the cities until mid-morning tomorrow, so maybe a brief period of freezing stuff? Quite different for you as light precip comes in overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Nobody wants to talk about tomorrow morning? Winter weather advisory Loudoun on West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Nobody wants to talk about tomorrow morning? I haven't looked at it much, but from what I've seen, isn't the precip stays west of the cities until mid-morning tomorrow, so maybe a brief period of freezing stuff? Quite different for you as light precip comes in overnight. Hmmm. 6z gfs says maybe I spoke too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 I just can't get interested. Heavy rain and 60's looming in 72 hours leaves me completely uninterested in glaze on grass and trees for a couple hours before temps head well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I just can't get interested. Heavy rain and 60's looming in 72 hours leaves me completely uninterested in glaze on grass and trees for a couple hours before temps head well above freezing. Yeah, I hear you. I'm being a complete "2 hour delay" weenie right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Yeah, I hear you. I'm being a complete "2 hour delay" weenie right now. I don't know that I can completely disagree. I get excited for the delays because it means an easier commute. I just can't get interested. Heavy rain and 60's looming in 72 hours leaves me completely uninterested in glaze on grass and trees for a couple hours before temps head well above freezing. Tis better to know whether there will be weather than what the weather will be? FWIW I'm looking toward the early side of mid-February. But we shall see how it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 NAM says few hundreths at best... GFS still suggests .1 of FRZ RN Blue Ridge west on their respective 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Anyone else notice how high the RH was at the surface on Tuesday and Wed ahead of the front on the NAm soundings? Those RH make trying to forecast the highs tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 NAM says few hundreths at best... GFS still suggests .1 of FRZ RN Blue Ridge west on their respective 12z runs SREFs are still saying that some frozen precip for central MD is likely (particularly in the shape of freezing rain) but I don't really see it, particularly because the surface temp looks to warm up quick enough, along with the mids threatening to almost immediately crush the slippery stuff before it even considers getting out of hand. Cold drizzle seems about right for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Anyone else notice how high the RH was at the surface on Tuesday and Wed ahead of the front on the NAm soundings? Those RH make trying to forecast the highs tough. I did. The NAM has been doing very weird things with moisture lately. I've using local METAR/Wx reports from areas in the OV/SE/MW prior to giving thought to any forecast in the mid/atl. Sometimes it helps just to see how everything is being handled. The 700s have been my friend lately, that's for darn sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 ZR advisories with up to 0.05" of ice possible in and around ROA -- I'm counting on seeing just rain in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 My backyard thermometer has made it above freezing for the first time since Monday. Sad to see it end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Only got a little bit left in the shady areas now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 WWA for tomorrow morning turning out more interesting?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 WWA for tomorrow morning turning out more interesting?? Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Just got back from Deep Creek Lake. It snowed from late Friday AM until Saturday sunset. Great skiing conditions. Got about 6-7" total at the rental in Oakland. Got my snow fix; bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 not sure why ppl are including snow in the forecasts for tomorrow. 850s are already nearing 0 and headed up it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Blacksburg now has their whole CWA in a ZR advisory. I still don't see myself getting much IMBY, but some of the surrounding ridges may get a good coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Finally crawled above freezing at 1:10 pm today, high of 35.9 after a low of 14.8, took care of the snow except shaded spots. First time above freezing since 21st. Looks like a .1 of freezing rain headed my way in am. 31.8 with a DP of 21.1 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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