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Good riddance 2012. Rockin 2013? Obs and Banter


Bob Chill

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Everyone was excited about a potential 1-3 or 2-4 snowfall....now they seem disappointed at that prospect. Man we are a silly group...have I mentioned I hate these long track snow potentials

People are being pretty silly with this one. This is the best model look at this range we have had in many years. All major models show a cold snow with around .50" of precip. I am all for being realistic and understanding the dangers, but there really is no point in following the weather if you can't even let yourself enjoy some good model runs.

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12z gfs freak out in full force.

 

For my part, not freaked out, just disheartened. Its not like it is one blip run, the GFS has been pushing a drier/non-event for several runs now. I can't discount that just because the Euro/NAM are wetter. Seems like two possibilities are being modeled. I would have liked to have seen the drier solution come off the table at this point...

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And, btw, wintrwluvr was very early on sounding worrying notes on this trending drier. This is something that has been mentioned by a bunch on here, not just Matt.

 

People just got all excited when the wet runs came in. The first group of runs that had this threat as being "real" had temp issues but precip was in the .2-.4 range. Everybody started focusing on temps even though it was likely that it would be colder than early progs. So then the temps came in line but we were still in the. .2-.4 range. All of a sudden.... .5-.8 started getting tossed around. 

 

If anything, the wet runs are the blip. Not the drier gfs runs. Not being negative at all. I still think .2-.4 all snow is a safe bet. But weenies gonna freak out. For some reason, wet runs become the benchmark instantly but drier runs digest about as well as holly leaves. 

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I made a post that was quickly deleted in the storm thread saying that the thread was starting to suck.  I stand by that.

 

Not upset that the post was deleted though. :D

It never bothers me if one of mine gets chucked as I often have little to add. I wish a few others would get the same treatment, tho.

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