Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Honestly I never knew until today about that 50% required probability with watches. And I've been following weather for 11 years now. I've never seen it before either. Seems pretty high at least compared to severe weather. Tho obviously the coverage is usually different so maybe not 1 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I've never seen it before either. Seems pretty high at least compared to severe weather. Tho obviously the coverage is usually different so maybe not 1 to 1. I vaguely remembered the 50% figure but didn't know that it was still used or is even used uniformly across the country. Jason got the number from John Strong who certainly should know. The problem is no one in the general public knows what probability is needed for a watch to be issued and I suspect many forecasters issue watches at a lower probability than that. Watches need to be more specific about what they actually mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Very good points Wes. I'm certainly in favor for at a minimum of some probabilistic forecast info in addition to the deterministic output. The challenge for us is to convey such info that can be easily understood by the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Very good points Wes. I'm certainly in favor for at a minimum of some probabilistic forecast info in addition to the deterministic output. The challenge for us is to convey such info that can be easily understood by the public. I am going to help you out here. I will provide your forecasts for the next few years or decades: Seasonal: Warm and wet or cold and dry. If it is precipitating, the temperature is above freezing. If it is dry, it might be "cold" (i.e., at most 25 degrees at night)-- check your local thermometer for details. Daily: take NAM and add a few degrees while reducing QPF by 75%. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 A little chill in the air, 19 now, got down to 17.5 for a low. Had fog when I got up at 6, starting to burn off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Actually liking the cold today. Getting a new fridge and just put all the food outside in coolers on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 yep. i noted it here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-in-longest-drought-without-a-2-inch-or-greater-snowfall-event/2013/01/03/38c6a4c0-548b-11e2-8b9e-dd8773594efc_blog.html i didn't do the history there as it would have taken a long time.. but it's gotta be the longest stretch there as well as it's now longer than any of the prior dc ones and balt has at least a bit better climo. Nice research and article, Ian. I'll be throwing those stats at people until it snows again. Also, good discussion by all regarding NWS. Nothing to add other than theirs is not an easy job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Chilly morning. Low of 21.3 and a solid pack of icy mess on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 very pleasant winter day outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 47 very nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 47 very nice day It's Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It's Rain. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Beautiful. Took the convertible out for a spin this morning which turned into the afternnon. 50ish and just gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Slight temp bust today. The week of busts continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 58 here today, after a low of 21. Warmest day since December 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 LOL- SREF's showing .1" liquid for Baltimore. We should be allergic to the SREF's after the last storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I should wash the car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Feels warm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Awesome day. The whole family got out on our first combined dog/baby walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Slight temp bust today. The week of busts continues! For sure. Scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lol weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Awesome day. The whole family got out on our first combined dog/baby walk. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 56.9 Toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Add another bust to the pile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This "cold shot" is going to bust horribly. I bet DCA won't even get near freezing during the day. Not even close. It will be upper 30s on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Add another bust to the pile Three amazing things about today: 1) Models missed by 10 degrees from two days out w/o the complicating factor of clouds/precip. 2) This weekend turned out to be much nicer than last weekend with 850 temps 10-15 C lower 3) Our positive departure today may be just about the same magnitude as the negative departures Tues/Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This "cold shot" is going to bust horribly. I bet DCA won't even get near freezing during the day. Not even close. It will be upper 30s on Tuesday. Very doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Three amazing things about today: 1) Models missed by 10 degrees from two days out w/o the complicating factor of clouds/precip. 2) This weekend turned out to be much nicer than last weekend with 850 temps 10-15 C lower 3) Our positive departure today may be just about the same magnitude as the negative departures Tues/Wed On 1... You mean today was supposed to be cloudy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Very doubtful Bold....i agree with phin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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