Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'd have not pushed it past the initial comments myself. I think there is a tendency to pile on lately. From the outer ring it seems like the media has it out for the NWS lately tho specifically about warnings etc. I think however Jason has a solid argument and he sees CWG as a voice which might hasten change within the system. I do worry that bridges could be burnt though... Not to mention we all bust and the NWS doesn't write up an AFD about it. Plus I think it partly skirts the issue that no forecast were fantastic and that the forecast was particularly difficult given the forecast edge etc... But being among the least wrong is a plus. I kinda wish there was less opinion overall in the blogs but people like it I guess. Tricky lines sometimes tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Tonight is radiating nicely...already 27 I could see a low 20 kinda night....dp is 14 so if the wind dies off maybe drop below 20 Pretty good warm air advection overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well, the playing field can be vastly different depending on where you work. For example, my last office (NWS Wakefield), we were more conservative than otherwise when it came to WWAs (watch/warning/advisories). That philosophy might cut into the lead time, as well as on occasion have a negative effect on the POD (probability of detection). But at the same time, our false alarm rate was pretty low. People weren't getting the impression that we were warning on anything that moved. However, what might have worked in the backwoods of central and southern VA doesn't translate up here apparently. The local DC offices (that includes us at HPC) get crushed by the political and media storm when an event is missed, and I mean buried. You've heard the saying, in defense of our judicial system: "it is better for 10 guilty people to be walk free than one innocent be condemned for life". Well, some around here would subscribe to tbe philosophy that "I'd rather have 10 false alarms and no missed events" rather than 10 warned events (no false alarms) but with one missed event. The people up here, politicians and media especially, are absolutely brutal when impactful weather events are missed. That is a fact. If that culture can somehow change, I think you will see the weather forecast and warning philosophy for the DC area change as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah the area has a lot to do with it. Same thing can be said with the reaction to Sandy. Of course, adding a few extra counties to a watch along 95 has much larger implcations for population and commerce than in most places at least in theory. Probably just another sign the language is outdated and the primary focus should be impacts and numbers rather than a blanket advisory. No doubt the hysteria surrounding weather events in the area makes even a fairly benign watch seem like the end of the world. Education is better than bickering IMO. Use the chance to teach why forecasting is hard when you have the audience if possible. Many more people than youd think still believe mets are full of **** all the time. Also LWX should ditch that map or refine it. Tho still odd they ran so high to start either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah the area has a lot to do with it. Same thing can be said with the reaction to Sandy. Of course, adding a few extra counties to a watch along 95 has much larger implcations for population and commerce than in most places at least in theory. Probably just another sign the language is outdated and the primary focus should be impacts and numbers rather than a blanket advisory. No doubt the hysteria surrounding weather events in the area makes even a fairly benign watch seem like the end of the world. Education is better than bickering IMO. Use the chance to teach why forecasting is hard when you have the audience if possible. Many more people than youd think still believe mets are full of **** all the time. Also LWX should ditch that map or refine it. Tho still odd they ran so high to start either way. Good points Ian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Good points Ian.. I think we CWG would have been wiser to wait until the dust settled and the forecast were little farther away so Jason's post wouldn't be perceived as bashing the NWS as I do think there are questions and discussion that needs to be done concerning the watch and warning process in general. An article explaining the rules for issuing them and then exploring and offerings opinions by experts on what could be done to improve the entire watch process would be informative and might help get dialogue started about how the watch process might eventually be improved. I personally think it is broken and leaves the NWS forecaster in a untenable position. Part of problem in the watch process itself is how the watch is typically worded and how close the watch wording headlines are to the headlines used in a warning. A watch sounds pretty alarming which is great in a Dec 2009 or feb 2010 type event but can lead to overreaction during the really iffy situations like this one. Also, a watch needs to put in a context that includes the probabilities of it occurring or for that matter completely busting. That may seem like a hedge and would engender more work for the poor forecaster but really would be supplying people with more information about the impending storm. As I understand a watch, it is supposed to be issued when there is a 50% chance of the watch verifying but that is not included in the watch that is released to the public. Instead the watch wording is much mushier leaving it to the reader to really guess about the odds of the event occurring. Without clearly stated probabilities, I'm guessing some forecasters are inclined to put watches out at probabilities much lower than at 50%. That seemed to be the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Honestly I never knew until today about that 50% required probability with watches. And I've been following weather for 11 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Honestly I never knew until today about that 50% required probability with watches. And I've been following weather for 11 years now. I've never seen it before either. Seems pretty high at least compared to severe weather. Tho obviously the coverage is usually different so maybe not 1 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I've never seen it before either. Seems pretty high at least compared to severe weather. Tho obviously the coverage is usually different so maybe not 1 to 1. I vaguely remembered the 50% figure but didn't know that it was still used or is even used uniformly across the country. Jason got the number from John Strong who certainly should know. The problem is no one in the general public knows what probability is needed for a watch to be issued and I suspect many forecasters issue watches at a lower probability than that. Watches need to be more specific about what they actually mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Very good points Wes. I'm certainly in favor for at a minimum of some probabilistic forecast info in addition to the deterministic output. The challenge for us is to convey such info that can be easily understood by the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Very good points Wes. I'm certainly in favor for at a minimum of some probabilistic forecast info in addition to the deterministic output. The challenge for us is to convey such info that can be easily understood by the public. I am going to help you out here. I will provide your forecasts for the next few years or decades: Seasonal: Warm and wet or cold and dry. If it is precipitating, the temperature is above freezing. If it is dry, it might be "cold" (i.e., at most 25 degrees at night)-- check your local thermometer for details. Daily: take NAM and add a few degrees while reducing QPF by 75%. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 A little chill in the air, 19 now, got down to 17.5 for a low. Had fog when I got up at 6, starting to burn off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Actually liking the cold today. Getting a new fridge and just put all the food outside in coolers on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 yep. i noted it here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-in-longest-drought-without-a-2-inch-or-greater-snowfall-event/2013/01/03/38c6a4c0-548b-11e2-8b9e-dd8773594efc_blog.html i didn't do the history there as it would have taken a long time.. but it's gotta be the longest stretch there as well as it's now longer than any of the prior dc ones and balt has at least a bit better climo. Nice research and article, Ian. I'll be throwing those stats at people until it snows again. Also, good discussion by all regarding NWS. Nothing to add other than theirs is not an easy job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Chilly morning. Low of 21.3 and a solid pack of icy mess on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 very pleasant winter day outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 47 very nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 47 very nice day It's Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It's Rain. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Beautiful. Took the convertible out for a spin this morning which turned into the afternnon. 50ish and just gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Slight temp bust today. The week of busts continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 58 here today, after a low of 21. Warmest day since December 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 LOL- SREF's showing .1" liquid for Baltimore. We should be allergic to the SREF's after the last storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I should wash the car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Feels warm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Awesome day. The whole family got out on our first combined dog/baby walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Slight temp bust today. The week of busts continues! For sure. Scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lol weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Awesome day. The whole family got out on our first combined dog/baby walk. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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