nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The DCA snow drought got me wondering about Baltimore. I don't think BWI has had a snowfall of greater than 1" since 2/22/11. That's nearly 700 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The DCA snow drought got me wondering about Baltimore. I don't think BWI has had a snowfall of greater than 1" since 2/22/11. That's nearly 700 days. That will end by February 10th, you can take that to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 2014 will be rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 2014 will be rockin. If recent history tells us anything, 2016-2017 will be our winter. Nothing else will be truly rockin'. Then again, a normal winter (which we really don't have) would seem rockin' after the last three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 If recent history tells us anything, 2016-2017 will be our winter. Nothing else will be truly rockin'. Then again, a normal winter (which we really don't have) would seem rockin' after the last three years. Actually, if you look at the pattern, it should be next winter when we get a 8"+ storm. I know zwyts and others have said its just one big coincidence... but its an interesting one: 2009-2010 2005-2006 2002-2003 1999-2000 1995-1996 1992-1993 1986-1987 1982-1983 Ever since the 1980s... about every 3-4 winters we have a major snowstorm in DC. Once again, its most likely just coincidence... but I find this lil tidbit interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 disco thread is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 disco thread is terrible guilty as charged. It gon snow....or not...idgaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Eh, bob is trying. I didn't help with the wes meme pic comment. That adds nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 But I DO gaf. I am rooting for you, despite my rampant useless cynacism... guilty as charged. It gon snow....or not...idgaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm just fulfilling my duty as a sensible weenie. Just pointing out what I'm seeing until a red tag fulfills their responsibility of putting the smack down on sensible weenies not making any sense...if that makes any sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The DCA snow drought got me wondering about Baltimore. I don't think BWI has had a snowfall of greater than 1" since 2/22/11. That's nearly 700 days. yep. i noted it here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-in-longest-drought-without-a-2-inch-or-greater-snowfall-event/2013/01/03/38c6a4c0-548b-11e2-8b9e-dd8773594efc_blog.html i didn't do the history there as it would have taken a long time.. but it's gotta be the longest stretch there as well as it's now longer than any of the prior dc ones and balt has at least a bit better climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 guilty as charged. It gon snow....or not...idgaf not you. There are a lot of other posts whining and crying and calling it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm just fulfilling my duty as a sensible weenie. Just pointing out what I'm seeing until a red tag fulfills their responsibility of putting the smack down on sensible weenies not making any sense...if that makes any sense... Wes is busy. He'll be along later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Wes is busy. He'll be along later Wes is semi-busy and still has stuff to do and has decided to leave the medium range stuff to Bob as he may be able to cheer everyone up though I may make a post later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Wes is semi-busy and still has stuff to do and has decided to leave the medium range stuff to Bob as he may be able to cheer everyone up though I may make a post later today. Sounds like you are calling for 8-10" if I read between the letters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 disco thread is terrible So is disco music! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm liking this MLK day Clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I know some have poo pooed the upcoming cold snap, but 5-7 consecutive days with highs in the 20s/30s is pretty good for us. Of course, I'd love to be in NNE shoes where they'll get 2-3 consecutive days with highs around 0 and lows in the -10s, but that just isn't going to happen around here. The mountains areas to our west should do well. NWS forecast for jon jon shows three consecutive days with highs in the low-mid 10s with snow Sat night - Mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Man that euro play by play in the Philly thread is gut wrenching...If it plays out like that I'm probably joining Ji and his battle cry. Gonna be living in Columbus Ohio for a few weeks starting in mid February so maybe I can catch a break there for the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looks like CWG thinks the NWS issuing the WSW was "one of its worst winter weather forecasts in recent memory". Do they not know what a watch means? Am I out of line here or is that statement outlandish? When it was clear DC wasn't getting warning criteria snow, or any for that matter, the watches were dropped. I just don't understand the argument there and to be frank, it annoys me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Tonight is radiating nicely...already 27 I could see a low 20 kinda night....dp is 14 so if the wind dies off maybe drop below 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like CWG thinks the NWS issuing the WSW was "one of its worst winter weather forecasts in recent memory". Do they not know what a watch means? Am I out of line here or is that statement outlandish? When it was clear DC wasn't getting warning criteria snow, or any for that matter, the watches were dropped. I just don't understand the argument there and to be frank, it annoys me. I was upset to see that. Whether we agreed with it or not, I subscribe to the philosophy that professional meteorologists do not throw colleagues under the bus, at least not in a public forum like that. It's highly unprofessional. But I suppose when you're a private entity, when your bread and butter are through ratings, the gloves can come off. It must be nice to not have the accountability for watches/warnings/advisories. Not that I condone some of the 'hasty' headlines that occasionally come out, or when I see an office seemingly give into the urge to be "the first with the worst". It's one thing to badmouth a forecast near the water cooler, or on FB, or even on a forum such as this. But to go through the press, ugh, that's just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'd have not pushed it past the initial comments myself. I think there is a tendency to pile on lately. From the outer ring it seems like the media has it out for the NWS lately tho specifically about warnings etc. I think however Jason has a solid argument and he sees CWG as a voice which might hasten change within the system. I do worry that bridges could be burnt though... Not to mention we all bust and the NWS doesn't write up an AFD about it. Plus I think it partly skirts the issue that no forecast were fantastic and that the forecast was particularly difficult given the forecast edge etc... But being among the least wrong is a plus. I kinda wish there was less opinion overall in the blogs but people like it I guess. Tricky lines sometimes tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Tonight is radiating nicely...already 27 I could see a low 20 kinda night....dp is 14 so if the wind dies off maybe drop below 20 Pretty good warm air advection overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well, the playing field can be vastly different depending on where you work. For example, my last office (NWS Wakefield), we were more conservative than otherwise when it came to WWAs (watch/warning/advisories). That philosophy might cut into the lead time, as well as on occasion have a negative effect on the POD (probability of detection). But at the same time, our false alarm rate was pretty low. People weren't getting the impression that we were warning on anything that moved. However, what might have worked in the backwoods of central and southern VA doesn't translate up here apparently. The local DC offices (that includes us at HPC) get crushed by the political and media storm when an event is missed, and I mean buried. You've heard the saying, in defense of our judicial system: "it is better for 10 guilty people to be walk free than one innocent be condemned for life". Well, some around here would subscribe to tbe philosophy that "I'd rather have 10 false alarms and no missed events" rather than 10 warned events (no false alarms) but with one missed event. The people up here, politicians and media especially, are absolutely brutal when impactful weather events are missed. That is a fact. If that culture can somehow change, I think you will see the weather forecast and warning philosophy for the DC area change as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah the area has a lot to do with it. Same thing can be said with the reaction to Sandy. Of course, adding a few extra counties to a watch along 95 has much larger implcations for population and commerce than in most places at least in theory. Probably just another sign the language is outdated and the primary focus should be impacts and numbers rather than a blanket advisory. No doubt the hysteria surrounding weather events in the area makes even a fairly benign watch seem like the end of the world. Education is better than bickering IMO. Use the chance to teach why forecasting is hard when you have the audience if possible. Many more people than youd think still believe mets are full of **** all the time. Also LWX should ditch that map or refine it. Tho still odd they ran so high to start either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah the area has a lot to do with it. Same thing can be said with the reaction to Sandy. Of course, adding a few extra counties to a watch along 95 has much larger implcations for population and commerce than in most places at least in theory. Probably just another sign the language is outdated and the primary focus should be impacts and numbers rather than a blanket advisory. No doubt the hysteria surrounding weather events in the area makes even a fairly benign watch seem like the end of the world. Education is better than bickering IMO. Use the chance to teach why forecasting is hard when you have the audience if possible. Many more people than youd think still believe mets are full of **** all the time. Also LWX should ditch that map or refine it. Tho still odd they ran so high to start either way. Good points Ian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Good points Ian.. I think we CWG would have been wiser to wait until the dust settled and the forecast were little farther away so Jason's post wouldn't be perceived as bashing the NWS as I do think there are questions and discussion that needs to be done concerning the watch and warning process in general. An article explaining the rules for issuing them and then exploring and offerings opinions by experts on what could be done to improve the entire watch process would be informative and might help get dialogue started about how the watch process might eventually be improved. I personally think it is broken and leaves the NWS forecaster in a untenable position. Part of problem in the watch process itself is how the watch is typically worded and how close the watch wording headlines are to the headlines used in a warning. A watch sounds pretty alarming which is great in a Dec 2009 or feb 2010 type event but can lead to overreaction during the really iffy situations like this one. Also, a watch needs to put in a context that includes the probabilities of it occurring or for that matter completely busting. That may seem like a hedge and would engender more work for the poor forecaster but really would be supplying people with more information about the impending storm. As I understand a watch, it is supposed to be issued when there is a 50% chance of the watch verifying but that is not included in the watch that is released to the public. Instead the watch wording is much mushier leaving it to the reader to really guess about the odds of the event occurring. Without clearly stated probabilities, I'm guessing some forecasters are inclined to put watches out at probabilities much lower than at 50%. That seemed to be the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Honestly I never knew until today about that 50% required probability with watches. And I've been following weather for 11 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.