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Good riddance 2012. Rockin 2013? Obs and Banter


Bob Chill

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I'm a 9....don't really get angry anymore about not getting it. This type of model output would have sent me over the edge a few years ago...now...eh...sucks but I will live...plus I'm still really sexy and good looking regardless of how much snow I get.

Why WSW for Loudoun? Eastern maybe?

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There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when.  So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms.  I will start:

 

D7+, EURO

D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS

D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS

D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.:  radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data)

T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.:  radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream).

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There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when.  So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms.  I will start:

 

D7+, EURO

D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS

D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS

D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.:  radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data)

T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.:  radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream).

 

D7+: Ensembles, analogs, Longwave patterns, Indices(AO/NAO/PNA/QBO etc..)

D4-D6: EURO, GFS, CMC, Ensembles

48-72hrs: SREF, Euro, GFS, CMC, NAM

24-48hrs: SREF, Euro, GFS, CMC, NAM, Verification, Obs

12-24hrs: SREF, RAP, HRRR, SPC-NMM, NAM, Obs

<12hrs: Obs, RAP, HRRR, web-cams, Obs/reports.

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I've never understood why possible snow threats make us all bicker with each other?

 

I am guessing its more pronounced when the maps look like this one is probably gonna. When a part of the area cashes in and a part doesn't, that's the tipping point maybe (winterwxluvr v. most everybody else in the dec storms - south v north in this one). The consistent thing is the relative snow hole over Balt City.

 

Yes, I am giving in to fullblown whining now...

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There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when.  So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms.  I will start:

 

D7+, EURO

D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS

D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS

D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.:  radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data)

T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.:  radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream).

Far too complicated.  Here's how you can simplify it:

 

D1-15:  Whichever model/s show the most snow. 

D0:  Radar hallucinations

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FWIW Two days ago the was nothing, nothing to look at - except for this piece - and almost no one really got excited then. (Except for, well, never mind) So now we have a modest event to track and the issues we come up against are the usual. But at least it is feeling like winter now. Looking forward to a larger, more potent event. Fingers crossed and such.

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