clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm a 9....don't really get angry anymore about not getting it. This type of model output would have sent me over the edge a few years ago...now...eh...sucks but I will live...plus I'm still really sexy and good looking regardless of how much snow I get. Why WSW for Loudoun? Eastern maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when. So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms. I will start: D7+, EURO D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data) T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I've never understood why possible snow threats make us all bicker with each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when. So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms. I will start: D7+, EURO D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data) T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream). D7+: Ensembles, analogs, Longwave patterns, Indices(AO/NAO/PNA/QBO etc..) D4-D6: EURO, GFS, CMC, Ensembles 48-72hrs: SREF, Euro, GFS, CMC, NAM 24-48hrs: SREF, Euro, GFS, CMC, NAM, Verification, Obs 12-24hrs: SREF, RAP, HRRR, SPC-NMM, NAM, Obs <12hrs: Obs, RAP, HRRR, web-cams, Obs/reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I've never understood why possible snow threats make us all bicker with each other? I am guessing its more pronounced when the maps look like this one is probably gonna. When a part of the area cashes in and a part doesn't, that's the tipping point maybe (winterwxluvr v. most everybody else in the dec storms - south v north in this one). The consistent thing is the relative snow hole over Balt City. Yes, I am giving in to fullblown whining now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I caught some low level wave like passage on the weather station passing around 1:45.. It got really dark (supported by my new Solar Rad. Sensor) , the pressure shot up by 3 mb and the wind direction went crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This should help the old people with bad eyes. sref.JPG Thanks! My eyes and iPhone thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when. So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms. I will start: D7+, EURO D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data) T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream). Far too complicated. Here's how you can simplify it: D1-15: Whichever model/s show the most snow. D0: Radar hallucinations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This thread should be a lot longer and the "threat" thread should be a lot shorter. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 FWIW Two days ago the was nothing, nothing to look at - except for this piece - and almost no one really got excited then. (Except for, well, never mind) So now we have a modest event to track and the issues we come up against are the usual. But at least it is feeling like winter now. Looking forward to a larger, more potent event. Fingers crossed and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thank God Arlwx came in and posted the NWS stuff in a totally unreadable format!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the GFS bails I'm leaving the internet till it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the GFS bails I'm leaving the internet till it's over. I still have yet to collect on my first burger. Double or nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hopefully these are the best runs for thurs.. getting it yanked away after getting better might be rough Did you really say that out loud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM @ 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bunch of bridge jumpers over the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Did you really say that out loud?:-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bunch of bridge jumpers over the 18z NAMji is funny but he's also an awful poster at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think it was because LWX issued the WSW...full blown jinx. They control the weather with their actions, it is well known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bunch of bridge jumpers over the 18z NAM As if there wasn't enough drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ji is funny but he's also an awful poster at times. not just him. your post about being lost in the weeds seems even more appropriate now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bunch of bridge jumpers over the 18z NAM Holy smokes. It's as bad as watching a Honey Boo Boo episode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think it was because LWX issued the WSW...full blown jinx. They control the weather with their actions, it is well known. It is the KOD. I am just gonna hug my Christmas Eve snow and try to let go this evening. Freaked out when I heard the WSW. Never ever good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Holy smokes. It's as bad as watching a Honey Boo Boo episode. never seen one. Can you describe it on 3 words or less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's been so long that it might feel weird to see a decent snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 never seen one. Can you describe it on 3 words or less? No. Co workers have seen it. But not me. I'm only assuming this is as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 never seen one. Can you describe it on 3 words or less? 5th circle ofhell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No. Co workers have seen it. But not me. I'm only assuming this is as bad. I see. Well from what I hear the 18z NAM looked like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I see. Well from what I hear the 18z NAM looked like this Capture43-300x258.png That's way more disturbing than the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's been so long that it might feel weird to see a decent snowstorm. Keep waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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