Ji Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Anyone who stays up for the euro on a work night is a moron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Anyone who stays up for the euro on a work night is a moron not tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 not tonight.... How is the Hm storm looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 How is the Hm storm looking like an LC storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro does look good for a moderate event around the DCA/BWI metro area this weekend. However, I always get a little nervous with these storms that have central MD as the western cutoff for the "good snow" and the best precip is depicted further north and east. Unfortunatley, I've seen storms through the years with this precip pattern, shift NE and leave the DCA/BWI area with little precip. I'll be closely watching the 12Z Euro for any shifts in precip gradient (hopefully stable or even further west)---do not want to see the dreaded east shift. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I feel like this is going to evolve into a major storm for areas further north, but DC will still see a 3-5" event. The EURO has looked close to something big for some time, and I think the same trend with this past storm seems to be occurring with the new one (further N&W, which in this case is a good thing). Will be the first white New Years in quite a while, I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Just woke up... should have stayed awake for the party last night... looks like it is evolving well... the gfs looks to support all snow... what about the ratios? With this thing really not bombing until it gets to our north and east... I am hoping we can sqeeze out 10:1.. maybe 4-6? Edit - yuck... from NWS- A WIDE AREAL RANGE OF RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR THE LATE MRNG HRS...CHANGING TO RAIN OVER SRN MD AND THE METRO AREAS HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS Still have p-type issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 6z GFS has a much more Euro like solution. Not as much precip as the Euro and haven't checked soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The 00Z Euro and 00Z GFS (06Z has trended towards the Euro) are almost identical at the 500's @ 48 hours as the low starts moving up from the gulf states. The only minor difference is the fact that the Euro is slightly stronger with the southern low and the GFS has slightly lower pressures to the north of that southern low. I find it interesting the end results for our region just with those subtle differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll be in williamsburg this weekend. Ian rule in effect. It will be the best snow yet and I won't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Im stuck with phone models till later but I scanned through everything. My best guess is to go in between the gfs and euro (cliche. Lol). Euro is a thing of beauty but let's be honest, do the various setups at 5h really support a classic dc-me significant snowfall? I guess it's possible but I'm not biting there at all for now. 6z gfs looks fair. I could see that type of evolution but a bit juicier. I also don't think freaking out on the column is worth it either. How have the last 2 events played out? I think this is still a very good chance at all snow in DC. There are 2 more events on tap after this weekend as well. I don't care what the exact solutions say right now. There is good spacing and active jets. Fun stretch of tracking for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Im stuck with phone models till later but I scanned through everything. My best guess is to go in between the gfs and euro (cliche. Lol). Euro is a thing of beauty but let's be honest, do the various setups at 5h really support a classic dc-me significant snowfall? I guess it's possible but I'm not biting there at all for now. 6z gfs looks fair. I could see that type of evolution but a bit juicier. I also don't think freaking out on the column is worth it either. How have the last 2 events played out? I think this is still a very good chance at all snow in DC. There are 2 more events on tap after this weekend as well. I don't care what the exact solutions say right now. There is good spacing and active jets. Fun stretch of tracking for sure. if the GFS is the solution better hope you are as far north and west as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Just woke up... should have stayed awake for the party last night... looks like it is evolving well... the gfs looks to support all snow... what about the ratios? With this thing really not bombing until it gets to our north and east... I am hoping we can sqeeze out 10:1.. maybe 4-6? Edit - yuck... from NWS- A WIDE AREAL RANGE OF RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR THE LATE MRNG HRS...CHANGING TO RAIN OVER SRN MD AND THE METRO AREAS HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS Still have p-type issues? yes...and when I brought them up last night, i was told I was being too IMBY....the GFS has looked questionable for at least 2 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Even though we are at the outer limits of the usefulness with the SREF's you have to like the fact that over the last 24 hours of runs they have trended away from a GFS solution and more toward a Euro solution in the setup leading to the Saturday storm. They seem to be evolving away from the more strung out look with lower pressures to the north that the GFS prefers, to the more consolidated look that the Euro presents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 if the GFS is the solution better hope you are as far north and west as possible Thinking more in between honestly. Just like with the Xmas eve the ns ended up not being as dominant and the column went cooler. Just a hunch but I think surface low pops south enough to give mostly snow but prob not some big juiced up system with a classic track. Just a wag but things keep looking familiar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Thinking more in between honestly. Just like with the Xmas eve the ns ended up not being as dominant and the column went cooler. Just a hunch but I think surface low pops south enough to give mostly snow but prob not some big juiced up system with a classic track. Just a wag but things keep looking familiar to me. the 6z GFS is a definite improvement.....I imagine this storm will be like the others...people who live in places I have never heard of with one traffic light will post pics of their +SN and 4" and I will be oscillating between precip types and taking pics of cartops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the 6z GFS is a definite improvement.....I imagine this storm will be like the others...people who live in places I have never heard of with one traffic light will post pics of their +SN and 4" and I will be oscillating between precip types and taking pics of cartops LOL- funny post. But I know exactly what you're saying. Not this time though. We are going to witness the tried and true euro unwrapping and gfs amping. I love being a weenie. Busting had no consequences. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I was very not IMBY for the last 2 events, though I became insanely jealous around midday yesterday....this one I want snow, even though I know it will be less than others....I don't care how anyone else does.....When looking at models and soundings I am only going to look at my precise area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll be in williamsburg this weekend. Ian rule in effect. It will be the best snow yet and I won't see it. It's gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 LOL- funny post. But I know exactly what you're saying. Not this time though. We are going to witness the tried and true euro unwrapping and gfs amping. I love being a weenie. Busting had no consequences. Haha i'm going to look at the NAM now since I am desperate and hope it gives me snow...if it doesn't no big deal...We can dismiss it like we usually do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This thread got funny...I can't blame Matt...I would be doing the same thing. I hope he gets some good accumulating snow this weekend and his favorite team wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This has a progressive look to it and I don't expect it to wrap up too much. I see a light overrunning event with 1-3 inches over a wide area. I just don't see a strong enough system to do much more than that. The one big question I have is if the light precip will be enough to overcome a questionable boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hi Wes... I like you...hope you had a wonderful Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 i'm going to look at the NAM now since I am desperate and hope it gives me snow...if it doesn't no big deal...We can dismiss it like we usually do I looked the the euro on wunderground since you can get 3 hourly maps and it has a wind stream line map that shows dc with easterly winds even with the low developing to the south as it implies a weak low to the northwest. That's still the crux of the issue for you and me. My boundary layer is above freezing on the Euro. I think the GFS, even the 06Z would be mostly rain for the city and points southeast or really sloppy snow. The ncep precip algorithm has us as rain. We need the Euro to hang tough. The Ji's of the owrld probably do well with either model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Matt is like a guy that hasn't gotten laid in a while Everyone is IMBY when it comes to snow unless they are lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I live in the highest hill in Arlington County hopefully I'll be okay #standardimbypost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 having the ncep site down really, really sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 nam looking decent, but Allan's 36 hr map has no precip qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Everyone is IMBY when it comes to snow unless they are lying. Added to my sig. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM is farther north through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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