Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I know everyone here is about "setting climo expectations" but I can't set them much lower than one inch. Otherwise it isn't even a storm and we should close the thread. We should probably stop agonizing over models that are really not that good at pinpointing the fine details between a trace at 34 and an inch at 32. this run is good for you....I honestly think you are fine there...I am probably being too IMBY, but the surface is too warm and the column is warm from 925/950 down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I know everyone here is about "setting climo expectations" but I can't set them much lower than one inch. Otherwise it isn't even a storm and we should close the thread. We should probably stop agonizing over models that are really not that good at pinpointing the fine details between a trace at 34 and an inch at 32. The real irony comes in when we get a modeled 2-4 / 3-5 at short lead and all the honking turns to squeals of agony as the storm cuts off with 1-2 on the ground area wide...on the heels of back to back overperformers. It's a take what you can get pattern. Anybody who thinks it's better than that will be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 this run is good for you....I honestly think you are fine there...I am probably being too IMBY, but the surface is too warm and the column is warm from 925/950 down.... The run isn't bad and its decent at h5. Baltimore N is probably safe, no offense, but you can see that you're not probably being too IMBY, you're definitely too IMBY. I only say this because you called a run hideous then good run. I am 10 miles south of him, its not a bad run. You're warm but it can get cooler like today's did. UKMET above is nice, and chilly. The good models have Baltimore N in that 1-3/2-4 we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The real irony comes in when we get a modeled 2-4 / 3-5 at short lead and all the honking turns to squeals of agony as the storm cuts off with 1-2 on the ground area wide...on the heels of back to back overperformers. It's a take what you can get pattern. Anybody who thinks it's better than that will be disappointed. I have not been impressed with the GFS the last 2 runs....based on those, I would say people are going to get the same amount they got today...perhaps I am being too pessimistic, but it is moisture starved...the vort passes to our north....it is weak and disorganized, the air mass is bootleg and the column is insufficient to support snow....other than that I think the storm is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I have not been impressed with the GFS the last 2 runs....based on those, I would say people are going to get the same amount they got today...perhaps I am being too pessimistic, but it is moisture starved...the vort passes to our north....it is weak and disorganized, the air mass is bootleg and the column is insufficient to support snow....other than that I think the storm is great 40S problems... lately DC might as well be Richmond, in terms of climate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I have not been impressed with the GFS the last 2 runs....based on those, I would say people are going to get the same amount they got today...perhaps I am being too pessimistic, but it is moisture starved...the vort passes to our north....it is weak and disorganized, the air mass is bootleg and the column is insufficient to support snow....other than that I think the storm is great I think that's a good call. 1-3, with the 3 out in the western areas. Similar to today, without the back-end deluge (so better in that sense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The run isn't bad and its decent at h5. Baltimore N is probably safe, no offense, but you can see that you're not probably being too IMBY, you're definitely too IMBY. I only say this because you called a run hideous then good run. I am 10 miles south of him, its not a bad run. You're warm but it can get cooler like today's did. UKMET above is nice, and chilly. The good models have Baltimore N in that 1-3/2-4 we want. great...I live in Alexandria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 40S problems... lately DC might as well be Richmond, in terms of climate... When do you leave to go back to NYC? Soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 40S problems... lately DC might as well be Richmond, in terms of climate... are you back in NYC yet?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 great...I live in Alexandria That's capitalizing on the IMBYness, I mean I think at h5 the gfs was decent for more than just bwi northward. I'm only expecting 1-2 maybe 2-4 tops, but I mean it is what it is. I think that you'll see snow which in the desperation many of us have is not a bad thing. Enjoy it please, its the best type of weather we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I see his point though. If you have 2 inches in Dundalk, Phin 3, the barbaric highlands where I dwell 4, what good does it do the Alexandria crowd if they see a non accumulation mix? It is frustrating to be fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 That's capitalizing on the IMBYness, I mean I think at h5 the gfs was decent for more than just bwi northward. I'm only expecting 1-2 maybe 2-4 tops, but I mean it is what it is. I think that you'll see snow which in the desperation many of us have is not a bad thing. Enjoy it please, its the best type of weather we know. you can see the best lift? runs right along the 32 degree contour and right along the 500mb vort path to our north from western MD to southern PA....you and Phineas will be ok.....that is a bad track for me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I see his point though. If you have 2 inches in Dundalk, Phin 3, the barbaric highlands where I dwell 4, what good does it do the Alexandria crowd if they see a non accumulation mix? It is frustrating to be fringed. the 60 hour sounding for Ryan is way too close for comfort..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I see his point though. If you have 2 inches in Dundalk, Phin 3, the barbaric highlands where I dwell 4, what good does it do the Alexandria crowd if they see a non accumulation mix? It is frustrating to be fringed. I think the point is that for the core group of us here these are all going to be small, marginal events. The GFS at 70+ hours really isn't going to be nailing any coffins shut in terms of trace vs 1 inch. That's all within the accepted margin of error. I might be in a "good spot" to get 1 more hour of snow than DC and maybe get that inch while they get .5. Not worth worrying too much over really. We need a real storm soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 you can see the best lift? runs right along the 32 degree contour and right along the 500mb vort path to our north from western MD to southern PA....you and Phineas will be ok.....that is a bad track for me.... I like what it does with the coastal low in keeping that precip around to help us, the GFS this run was a primary secondary more enhanced situation. I did not fall in love with it, but the coastal took a good track. Unfortunately, that wouldn't do much. I am close on it, I'd do alright, N of BWI does do fine. I mean the GFS lacked QPF on the frames where it should've at least delivered .1-.2 in a 6 hour period totaling up over .25 (It's all academic at this juncture, we fluctuate up to game time, sometimes for the good, aka Feb 2-3, 2010 is a decent example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think the point is that for the core group of us here these are all going to be small, marginal events. The GFS at 70+ hours really isn't going to be nailing any coffins shut in terms of trace vs 1 inch. That's all within the accepted margin of error. I might be in a "good spot" to get 1 more hour of snow than DC and maybe get that inch while they get .5. Not worth worrying too much over really. We need a real storm soon... the storm starts at 57 hours....friday overnight...and you look good for 2-3" and I look good for a sleet/rain mix with a few mangled flakes and 35 degrees...I'd be very zen like if I lived in Kingsville as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the 12z euro was ideal....now I am going to stay up for the 0z, because I need to get this taste out of my mouth....I'm not too optimistic though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the storm starts at 57 hours....friday overnight...and you look good for 2-3" and I look good for a sleet/rain mix with a few mangled flakes and 35 degrees...I'd be very zen like if I lived in Kingsville as well You're right about that Matt, I'd say 1-3" for me and 2-4" for Phin, judging by the way the precip is and I doubt it will fall apart some like the GFS says, Phin could get even higher if the models juice this baby up some tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the 12z euro was ideal....now I am going to stay up for the 0z, because I need to get this taste out of my mouth....I'm not too optimistic though Ukie looked pretty good to me 850's were colder than both NAM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ukie looked pretty good to me 850's were colder than both NAM and GFS To be honest, was great for Baltimore, and pretty darn good compared to the GFS for Matt in Old town, about .3+ BWI down through DC. Wyoming has a nice site with lots of UK stuff, most of any I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I have lived, work, and otherwise dwell in this region from York, Pa, Beltsville, Cambridge, Fenwick Island, and frequent Kent Iskand. The snow climo here is remarkable in its variability over short distances. I understand the frustrations endured by the 495 crowd, but if you choose to live here for business or personal interest, you must adjust your expectations accordingly. If you are an avid bay sport enthusiast live in Annapolis or Kent Island. If you obsess over snow like I do than straddle the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the 12z euro was ideal....now I am going to stay up for the 0z, because I need to get this taste out of my mouth....I'm not too optimistic though there are 22 models. one is bound to give you snow tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 there are 22 models. one is bound to give you snow tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Canadian is about .4 for Baltimore, .25 DC, but overall very close to a lot more, .8" on the ES of MD with a nice coastal low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The SREF's are a good tool in this range to scope out the range of possibilities that exist. The ARW solution would likely push the RA/SN line up to approx. the Christmas eve RA/SN line. The more suppressed the less the WAA and thus you get a lighter snow down to DC/Wes's House. Ironically, the SERF mean would suit everyone pretty well temps wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The real irony comes in when we get a modeled 2-4 / 3-5 at short lead and all the honking turns to squeals of agony as the storm cuts off with 1-2 on the ground area wide...on the heels of back to back overperformers. It's a take what you can get pattern. Anybody who thinks it's better than that will be disappointed. If I can get a couple inches of snow on my lawn, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 are you back in NYC yet?... Saturday, so I will be here for this storm... hopefully we'll see 3-6", but 1-2" seems more likely for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro looks juicy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Sounds like the Euro is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro is juicy for sure, what I really like about the models this evening, is that they are moving that coastal low track into a better spot for us. We almost get hammered, but BWI to the bay gets around .5 QPF, Phin you'd be getting a great mod event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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