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December 29-30 storm.


stormtracker

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reclaim?...it was never dethroned...it is the best weather model that exists bar none...doesn't mean it is always right or always better...but it is the best..

Yeah I was unclear I guess. Just a lot less of the "Euro destroyed the GFS" posts this winter so far (or I've missed them). Seems like all the models have had a lot of waffling this year (though I guess when do they not?).

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The Euro does look good for a moderate event around the DCA/BWI metro area this weekend. However, I always get a little nervous with these storms that have central MD as the western cutoff for the "good snow" and the best precip is depicted further north and east. Unfortunatley, I've seen storms through the years with this precip pattern, shift NE and leave the DCA/BWI area with little precip. I'll be closely watching the 12Z Euro for any shifts in precip gradient (hopefully stable or even further west)---do not want to see the dreaded east shift.

MDstorm

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I feel like this is going to evolve into a major storm for areas further north, but DC will still see a 3-5" event. The EURO has looked close to something big for some time, and I think the same trend with this past storm seems to be occurring with the new one (further N&W, which in this case is a good thing). Will be the first white New Years in quite a while, I think?

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Just woke up... should have stayed awake for the party last night... looks like it is evolving well... the gfs looks to support all snow... what about the ratios? With this thing really not bombing until it gets to our north and east... I am hoping we can sqeeze out 10:1.. maybe 4-6?

Edit -

yuck... from NWS- A WIDE AREAL

RANGE OF RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR THE LATE MRNG HRS...CHANGING TO RAIN OVER

SRN MD AND THE METRO AREAS HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS

Still have p-type issues?

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The 00Z Euro and 00Z GFS (06Z has trended towards the Euro) are almost identical at the 500's @ 48 hours as the low starts moving up from the gulf states. The only minor difference is the fact that the Euro is slightly stronger with the southern low and the GFS has slightly lower pressures to the north of that southern low. I find it interesting the end results for our region just with those subtle differences.

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Im stuck with phone models till later but I scanned through everything. My best guess is to go in between the gfs and euro (cliche. Lol).

Euro is a thing of beauty but let's be honest, do the various setups at 5h really support a classic dc-me significant snowfall? I guess it's possible but I'm not biting there at all for now.

6z gfs looks fair. I could see that type of evolution but a bit juicier. I also don't think freaking out on the column is worth it either. How have the last 2 events played out? I think this is still a very good chance at all snow in DC.

There are 2 more events on tap after this weekend as well. I don't care what the exact solutions say right now. There is good spacing and active jets. Fun stretch of tracking for sure.

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Even though we are at the outer limits of the usefulness with the SREF's you have to like the fact that over the last 24 hours of runs they have trended away from a GFS solution and more toward a Euro solution in the setup leading to the Saturday storm. They seem to be evolving away from the more strung out look with lower pressures to the north that the GFS prefers, to the more consolidated look that the Euro presents.

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if the GFS is the solution better hope you are as far north and west as possible

Thinking more in between honestly. Just like with the Xmas eve the ns ended up not being as dominant and the column went cooler. Just a hunch but I think surface low pops south enough to give mostly snow but prob not some big juiced up system with a classic track. Just a wag but things keep looking familiar to me.

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