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December 29-30 storm.

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

It's an expected turn of events I suppose. Long duration blocking is always going to relax. AO and nao goes positive well in advance of the PNA moving from + to - so there's going to some help there in the next 10 days or so.

However, The +AO looks a bit transient. Looks more like a peak/valley spike than an overall flip in the regime. Just a wag. ENS are all over the place with how + it gets. High heights are all over the pole region from day 10 on. But the pac looks to mess with us again. Not much sense reading too much into it anyways. Atmosphere looks more like a chess match than predictable irt the general nh circulation.

GEFS does want to run the MJO from 4-5 but the signal is still weak so I question it's effectiveness to influence our longwave pattern this far north of the equator. My limited knowledge of the MJO is more confident with a strong signal because weaker ones have a lot of work to do to assert their force once you get up to our latitude. Even a weak 4-5 will likely give us a warm / wet patter because everything else seems to anyways. lol

I will take the wetter pattern. Maybe we can have some fluke set up and get a bit of cold air to at least have a shot at a wintry mix. Better than nada.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I can see that you are truly an unpopular electric eel. I live right on the border and do almost all of my business and work in Baltimore city and Baltimore County which is less that 10 minutes away (Baltimore County). My weather reports are from the Mason Dixon Line and barely above it. A few years ago there was a barn fire down the road and no one turned away the responding Baltimore County Fire department units. This is a mid atlantic location.

personally, I enjoy your posts and obs

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

fyi, 12Z Euro gave BWI .21, which is a little high, but temps were way to high too coming in at +1.7 at 1PM

have to admit that although these 3 events have been unimpressive total-wise, they have overperformed in that we normally do not do so well in marginal temp events

huh?...BWI was 32 for 2 straight obs and got there after an hour tops.......90% of the problem with this event was duration....you can't start at 37/38 degrees for what was essentially a 2 hour event...you wasted all the initial QPF as non accumulating wet snow while temps cooled...if this was a 6-7 hour event, you would have gotten 2".....

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

huh?...BWI was 32 for 2 straight obs and got there after an hour tops.......90% of the problem with this event was duration....you can't start at 37/38 degrees for what was essentially a 2 hour event...you wasted all the initial QPF as non accumulating wet snow while temps cooled...if this was a 6-7 hour event, you would have gotten 2".....

no, I was merely pointing out the temp forecast was on the high side

I knew this was a loser when I went to bed last night but am shocked over the .-75-1" that fell, and the rates that I had

of course, it'll melt by tomorrow at this time and we can start again

ocd....I can't stop thinking that when it comes to this hobby!

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I-83 BLIZZARD

I-83 BLIZZARD

Posted
Posted

I enjoy almost everyone's posts. This is supposed to be a fun and clean hobby. We all live in the same region. I enjoy the posts from DC, WV, and Annapolis. I have friends all over the region. I fish and crab on kent Island, family has a farm in Freeland right down the road, work at the inner harbor in Baltimore, hit whatever Raven's and Oriole games I can. Neighbor is a Baltimore County detective. If this does not give me mid atlantic street cred nothing will. It is amazing to see how the conditions vary just within a 35 mile span of Baltimore.

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Sparky

Sparky

Posted
Posted

Snow is still hanging on in Damascus with about 1.5". Another very pretty snowfall. I've had snow on the ground IMBY since Christmas Eve, so this has been the best stretch of winter in 2 years.

Same here. I was surprised that the Wednesday storm did not wash away all the snowcover. It was pretty substantial liquid, about 1.42" liquid overall. Of course some of it was in the form of sleet/freezing rain, which does not knock out snowcover on their own, plus temps plummeted below freezing shortly after the regular rain ended later in the evening on Wednesday.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I enjoy almost everyone's posts. This is supposed to be a fun and clean hobby. We all live in the same region. I enjoy the posts from DC, WV, and Annapolis. I have friends all over the region. I fish and crab on kent Island, family has a farm in Freeland right down the road, work at the inner harbor in Baltimore, hit whatever Raven's and Oriole games I can. Neighbor is a Baltimore County detective. If this does not give me mid atlantic street cred nothing will. It is amazing to see how the conditions vary just within a 35 mile span of Baltimore.

I personally don't care at all. I've worked in Timonium before. You are the n fringe of the MA. The problem comes when we have marginal events (and we have a lot of them). You will do much better than 90% of us here 95% of the time. So when us metro folks suffer a serious of close but no cigar and you are posting pics of grass covered there is going to be a natural lashing out. It's unavoidable.

Heck, I considered hauling my kerosine jet heater to winterwxluvr's front yard recently. But I kinda like the guy so I used some self discipline. :drunk:

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

I enjoy almost everyone's posts. This is supposed to be a fun and clean hobby. We all live in the same region. I enjoy the posts from DC, WV, and Annapolis. I have friends all over the region. I fish and crab on kent Island, family has a farm in Freeland right down the road, work at the inner harbor in Baltimore, hit whatever Raven's and Oriole games I can. Neighbor is a Baltimore County detective. If this does not give me mid atlantic street cred nothing will. It is amazing to see how the conditions vary just within a 35 mile span of Baltimore.

stay here...you are right on the border...we just get pissed when people from millersville etc post here...I am not sure Trevor should be posting here from Lancaster too

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Sparky

Sparky

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Posted

I personally don't care at all. I've worked in Timonium before. You are the n fringe of the MA. The problem comes when we have marginal events (and we have a lot of them). You will do much better than 90% of us here 95% of the time. So when us metro folks suffer a serious of close but no cigar and you are posting pics of grass covered there is going to be a natural lashing out. It's unavoidable.

Heck, I considered hauling my kerosine jet heater to winterwxluvr's front yard recently. But I kinda like the guy so I used some self discipline. :drunk:

Yes, it is avoidable. It involves a certain level of maturity and emotional stability.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I will take the wetter pattern. Maybe we can have some fluke set up and get a bit of cold air to at least have a shot at a wintry mix. Better than nada.

I was just using the cliche. Phase 4 is borderline wetter and phase 5 is drier than normal but phase 5 is awfully warm for much of the country.

But it's way dangerous for me and anybody who barely knows the basics with the MJO to use it as any kind of speculative tool. I'm more interested in the epo/pna/ao/nao stuff. If you want to take a stab at longer leads those are definitely the go to's. If those are showing a crap pattern and warm and then you notice the mjo is in phase 4-5 it's ok to make a general assumption that it "may" have something to do with it.

I kinda agree with Wes from what I'm seeing. A return to a favored western storm track is on the table. Maybe a 50-50 saves us and something cuts far enough west to get a front end something or other. Total wag though. I have little idea what to expect in the lr other than odds favoring a pattern that none of us are gonna like.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Yes, it is avoidable. It involves a certain level of maturity and emotional stability.

Of which you will find neither in a subforum of snow weenies that live in an area that underperforms way more often than not. I haven't been around as long as many but I've been around long enough that hospitality from those that get hosed is limited at best and non-existent at worst. lol

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I-83 BLIZZARD

I-83 BLIZZARD

Posted
Posted

I personally don't care at all. I've worked in Timonium before. You are the n fringe of the MA. The problem comes when we have marginal events (and we have a lot of them). You will do much better than 90% of us here 95% of the time. So when us metro folks suffer a serious of close but no cigar and you are posting pics of grass covered there is going to be a natural lashing out. It's unavoidable.

Heck, I considered hauling my kerosine jet heater to winterwxluvr's front yard recently. But I kinda like the guy so I used some self discipline. :drunk:

I understand the frustration with the lack of snow. My weather here and results are the same as PSU Hoffman's, Sparky's, et. al., and the Northern Herford Zone of Baltimore County. The wet barb that was thrown and I'm sure it was done out of love and for the sake of forum integrity was from a member that likely gets more snow than even we do here on the Mason Dixon line. In the 09-10 winter we were getting the 2 foot totals here just like Baltimore Metro while the Central PA forum members had on 6-10 inches or less, as well as Philly. Our weather is the same as Baltimore in terms of moisture except we are colder. There were many events where Philly got a foot and we had nothing here just like Baltimore. We are really an extension of the Herford zone as almost everyone here commutes to Baltimore County and City for work, so our weather focus is in our home and job territory and not in Philadelphia which is almost 100 miles away or in State College which is a world apart from here. :ph34r:

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Superstorm

Superstorm

Posted
Posted

I post here, central PA and in Philly. LOL...I am just stuck in the middle with no real home.

I also work down in Maryland so I have a lot of interest in the weather that's going on down there.

When I hear snow is good for Central Pennsylvania I know that does not necessarily mean Lancaster. Even when it comes from the National Weather Service in State College.

But when they say snow is a go for the mid-Atlantic and/or I-95 ... Game on.

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

I was just using the cliche. Phase 4 is borderline wetter and phase 5 is drier than normal but phase 5 is awfully warm for much of the country.

But it's way dangerous for me and anybody who barely knows the basics with the MJO to use it as any kind of speculative tool. I'm more interested in the epo/pna/ao/nao stuff. If you want to take a stab at longer leads those are definitely the go to's. If those are showing a crap pattern and warm and then you notice the mjo is in phase 4-5 it's ok to make a general assumption that it "may" have something to do with it.

I kinda agree with Wes from what I'm seeing. A return to a favored western storm track is on the table. Maybe a 50-50 saves us and something cuts far enough west to get a front end something or other. Total wag though. I have little idea what to expect in the lr other than odds favoring a pattern that none of us are gonna like.

Well this is totally IMBY remark, but I can wait till the end of Jan for a favorable set up. That is even if it is in the cards. This Dec has surpassed my expectations. I have got white stuff all around.

I am more inclined to take note of other indicators, like you said. I was just looking at the MJO beforehand. Just need to pay attention to Wes for his explanations. A warm up has been in the cards for a while now, but maybe not a total flip. That would send a lot of folks overboard....

Oops, Sun just popped out.

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