December 29-30 storm.

[Sparky]

Around 2 inches here and still falling at a moderate clip. No complaints considering last winter.

this has been a wintry 5 days. I am closing in on 8 inches over 3 events.

[usedtobe]

Yeah, I was sort of thinking about the lower levels though again I didn't seriously start looking till yesterday. And yeah I agree on the more precip angle.. may have ended up the same. As usual you rise among most of the pack for accum verification. But, these are good learning experiences for those with less knowledge.. Of course folks like Doug K are back patting but he was sort of wrong with how it came together it just ended up matching his forecast map.

But Doug K's forecast accumulations were pretty good. Most mets don't care whether they overthought it or not or whether their thinking was correct as long as they get it right. To be honest until I saw the 00Z, I thought 1-3 was a good call out towards Leesburg then the NAM and GFS came in looking on the dry side but I still would have forecast 1 to 2 out that way.

For us eastern guys, if there is a way to screw us, we usually get screwed. I had no clue which way we'd get screwed but we had potential to get fringed or to be too warm in the low levels. For these type events, I think peoples expectations regarding forecasts are unrealistic. It's pretty hard to know exactly how they will play out without offering scenarios.

To me most of the forecasts weren't that bad except for the stray dc might get 2-4 that someone posted. Heck, if someone posts more than what the clown maps are showing, that's usually not a good sign during a marginal temp event. That usually leads to fail.

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

this has been a wintry 5 days. I am closing in on 8 inches over 3 events.

For December no complaints. 3 inches on the 24th, almost 3 on the 26th (2.8) and whatever falls today. As a snow weenie the hour commute to work is worth the winter bonus of living in elevation away from the water. Hopefully sometime this winter we can all cash in on a true region wide coastal.

[mitchnick]

one last gasp right now around here and then it's ova'

falling as heavy as it ever did this morning

[Ian]

But Doug K's forecast accumulations were pretty good. Most mets don't care whether they overthought it or not or whether their thinking was correct as long as they get it right. To be honest until I saw the 00Z, I thought 1-3 was a good call out towards Leesburg then the NAM and GFS came in looking on the dry side but I still would have forecast 1 to 2 out that way.

For us eastern guys, if there is a way to screw us, we usually get screwed. I had no clue which way we'd get screwed but we had potential to get fringed or to be too warm in the low levels. For these type events, I think peoples expectations regarding forecasts are unrealistic. It's pretty hard to know exactly how they will play out without offering scenarios.

To me most of the forecasts weren't that bad except for the stray dc might get 2-4 that someone posted. Heck, if someone posts more than what the clown maps are showing, that's usually not a good sign during a marginal temp event. That usually leads to fail.

Right and as you alluded to if the low pressure interactions were different with higher qpf the same general accum scenario is a likely end result. For the DC 3-4" to happen you need to thread then needle and then some. Parts of n MD will still do fairly well it seems.

[kas80]

Still haven't seen one flake of snow this winter. Damn being south east of the city.

[mitchnick]

well, if the CFS is close to being right for JAN & FEB now, we should better the rest of the winter

[Ji]

Winter just starting. We have a shot jan 6

[Deck Pic]

But Doug K's forecast accumulations were pretty good. Most mets don't care whether they overthought it or not or whether their thinking was correct as long as they get it right. To be honest until I saw the 00Z, I thought 1-3 was a good call out towards Leesburg then the NAM and GFS came in looking on the dry side but I still would have forecast 1 to 2 out that way.

For us eastern guys, if there is a way to screw us, we usually get screwed. I had no clue which way we'd get screwed but we had potential to get fringed or to be too warm in the low levels. For these type events, I think peoples expectations regarding forecasts are unrealistic. It's pretty hard to know exactly how they will play out without offering scenarios.

To me most of the forecasts weren't that bad except for the stray dc might get 2-4 that someone posted. Heck, if someone posts more than what the clown maps are showing, that's usually not a good sign during a marginal temp event. That usually leads to fail.

your thoughts were the best as you never wavered from being bearish....I did think in general the evolution was a bust for the models....they didn't pick up until yesterday afternoon/evening that the start time would be delayed by 5-6 hours as we got completely dry slotted....it happens....But I would consider what was expected to be a 6-8 hour event with an early am start time to a 2 hour event starting at 9:30 am to be a pretty bad short term bust....the shorter duration and later start had a big impact with a marginal boundary layer,....You are right about the column, though some models were showing 850 temps very close to 0 during the event...when I think of column I think of all the way down to the surface, but I guess 925mb? down isn't really thought of when one talks about column issues versus just BL issues

[Ian]

your thoughts were the best as you never wavered from being bearish....I did think in general the evolution was a bust for the models....they didn't pick up until yesterday afternoon/evening that the start time would be delayed by 5-6 hours as we got completely dry slotted....it happens....But I would consider what was expected to be a 6-8 hour event with an early am start time to a 2 hour event starting at 9:30 am to be a pretty bad short term bust....the shorter duration and later start had a big impact with a marginal boundary layer,....You are right about the column, though some models were showing 850 temps very close to 0 during the event...when I think of column I think of all the way down to the surface, but I guess 925mb? down isn't really thought of when one talks about column issues versus just BL issues

was the timing ever really that consistent? it was initially a 29/30 event... kept moving forward.

[snowfan]

Winter just starting. We have a shot jan 6

It is worth noting that some locations have already received more snow than they did all of last year and its not January yet. Three short periods of winter weather in the last week is a win.

[FrederickWX]

this has been a wintry 5 days. I am closing in on 8 inches over 3 events.

Agreed - very nice week of winter weather. I'm somewhere between 7 and 8 inches for the week. Even if the rest of winter were to torch, I've already seen triple the amount of snow this winter compared to last.

[Deck Pic]

was the timing ever really that consistent? it was initially a 29/30 event... kept moving forward.

the NAM picked up on it at 18z yesterday when I "threw it out" lol......if you are making a forecast the evening before an event and the start time gets pushed back 4-5 hours and the duration gets cut by 4-5 hours, it is going to have an effect....I consider that somewhat of a model bust....RAP didn't pick up on it until late last evening IIRC

[RodneyS]

Damn near had the 1" drought too, but we ended up just over an inch with one of the events last winter.

That's an interesting point. The largest DCA storm of last winter was the January 20-21, 2012 event that dropped 0.5 inches on Friday the 20th and 0.6 inches on Saturday, the 21st. So, while DC has set a new record for consecutive days with no daily snowfall of at least an inch (703 days and counting -- the same as the 2-inch record drought), the DC record for consecutive days with no storm snowfall of at least an inch remains 701 days (2/4/1975 - 1/5/1977).

[Ian]

the NAM picked up on it at 18z yesterday when I "threw it out" lol......if you are making a forecast the evening before an event and the start time gets pushed back 4-5 hours and the duration gets cut by 4-5 hours, it is going to have an effect....I consider that somewhat of a model bust....RAP didn't pick up on it until late last evening IIRC

12z euro had a qpf hole in the area too.. it looked less than I expected based on discussion when going over stuff last night.

[usedtobe]

Right and as you alluded to if the low pressure interactions were different with higher qpf the same general accum scenario is a likely end result. For the DC 3-4" to happen you need to thread then needle and then some. Parts of n MD will still do fairly well it seems.

The bad news is in about 10 days, the pattern is going to moderate according to the CPC superens mean as the AO and epo both go positive. Bob alluded to the mjo is moving into the dreaded phases 4 and 5 which would support the positive EPO look. Even the jan 6 event that someone alluded to on the 12Z GFS has a warm look despite having a low off the east coast. Beyond that time, I'm guessing the storm track goes back towards the OH valley for awhile. We need to the Jan 3 event to not to get so sheared or We may not get much during the 1st couple of weeks of Jan. Of course, all this is idle speculation and is as liable to be wrong as right.

[WVclimo]

Nice little burst at the back edge has knocked my temp back below freezing. May be enough to get me to 10" for the week.

[Superstorm]

About 2.5" here in Lancaster.

[Deck Pic]

12z euro had a qpf hole in the area too.. it looked less than I expected based on discussion when going over stuff last night.

It all depends on the purpose of a forecast..perhaps the models/forecasts were adequate from a public perspective....and they really aren't meant for "us" per se'......

[psuhoffman]

We have to hope the next warm period is transient and we reload later in jan.

The bad news is in about 10 days, the pattern is going to moderate according to the CPC superens mean as the AO and epo both go positive. Bob alluded to the mjo is moving into the dreaded phases 4 and 5 which would support the positive EPO look. Even the jan 6 event that someone alluded to on the 12Z GFS has a warm look despite having a low off the east coast. Beyond that time, I'm guessing the storm track goes back towards the OH valley for awhile. We need to the Jan 3 event to not to get so sheared or We may not get much during the 1st couple of weeks of Jan. Of course, all this is idle speculation and is as liable to be wrong as right.

[weathervswife]

About 2.5" here in Lancaster.

Lebanon Levi will be pleased.

[Deck Pic]

Totally. I'm going to make a final call. Screw the model madness.

DCA 0.6"

BWI 1.4"

IAD 2.1"

Leesburg/MRB/HGR etc. 2.5-3.5". 4-5" above 1500'

Phineas/PSU 3"

Everyone else can extrapolate from that.

I'm guessing this is pretty bad...cut by 50% generally?

[PhineasC]

Last gasp here. 1.25" should be the final number. It melts quick so hard to tell.

[nw baltimore wx]

We have to hope the next warm period is transient and we reload later in jan.

I'm grateful for the 3 minor events this past week, but this pattern doesn't seem to be what we need for a solid 4" plus event. I'm willing for this pattern to 'break' and roll the dice on what follows the next warm period.

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

Actually took the time to measure and we are almost at the 3 inch mark with light snow still falling. Flakes are bigger and wetter now than they have been. Temp 29.8.

[Bob Chill]

The bad news is in about 10 days, the pattern is going to moderate according to the CPC superens mean as the AO and epo both go positive. Bob alluded to the mjo is moving into the dreaded phases 4 and 5 which would support the positive EPO look. Even the jan 6 event that someone alluded to on the 12Z GFS has a warm look despite having a low off the east coast. Beyond that time, I'm guessing the storm track goes back towards the OH valley for awhile. We need to the Jan 3 event to not to get so sheared or We may not get much during the 1st couple of weeks of Jan. Of course, all this is idle speculation and is as liable to be wrong as right.

It's an expected turn of events I suppose. Long duration blocking is always going to relax. AO and nao goes positive well in advance of the PNA moving from + to - so there's going to be some help there in the next 10 days or so.

However, The +AO looks a bit transient. Looks more like a peak/valley spike than an overall flip in the regime. Just a wag. ENS are all over the place with how + it gets. High heights are all over the pole region from day 10 on. But the pac looks to mess with us again. Not much sense reading too much into it anyways. Atmosphere looks more like a chess match than predictable irt the general nh circulation.

GEFS does want to run the MJO from 4-5 but the signal is still weak so I question it's effectiveness to influence our longwave pattern this far north of the equator. My limited knowledge of the MJO is more confident with a strong signal because weaker ones have a lot of work to do to assert their force once you get up to our latitude. Even a weak 4-5 will likely give us a warm / wet patter because everything else seems to anyways. lol

[jnis]

Snow is still hanging on in Damascus with about 1.5". Another very pretty snowfall. I've had snow on the ground IMBY since Christmas Eve, so this has been the best stretch of winter in 2 years.

[winterymix]

...But I would consider what was expected to be a 6-8 hour event with an early am start time to a 2 hour event starting at 9:30 am to be a pretty bad short term bust....the shorter duration and later start had a big impact with a marginal boundary layer,...

This event is something between snow showers and several hours of light snow.

The rapid update model now cuts off precipitation in the 1 pm to 2 pm hour, a good

two hours earlier than before. So...late start and early cut off...a light thump between

two dry slots?

Better than no snow, but just a quick light hitter.

[Ian]

I'm guessing this is pretty bad...cut by 50% generally?

acceptable probably. at least you didn't go 3-4".

my 75% of 1" imby from around this time yesterday was humiliated

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

I can see that you are truly an unpopular electric eel. I live right on the border and do almost all of my business and work in Baltimore city and Baltimore County which is less that 10 minutes away (Baltimore County). My weather reports are from the Mason Dixon Line and barely above it. A few years ago there was a barn fire down the road and no one turned away the responding Baltimore County Fire department units. This is a mid atlantic location.