Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro is plausible...and so is the gfs. Short space between systems with no predominant -nao is going to be tough to model. Another very subtle setup. It looks like we've moved to a wet pattern and I think we've all had a pretty good outlook on this one. I say we get pasted in a nice stripe of .25-.50. All snow? Who knows...unless you live in winchester / westminster etc... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro is plausible...and so is the gfs. Short space between systems with no predominant -nao is going to be tough to model. Another very subtle setup. It looks like we've moved to a wet pattern and I think we've all had a pretty good outlook on this one. I say we get pasted in a nice stripe of .25-.50. All snow? Who knows...unless you live in winchester / westminster etc... lol Sounds about right Bob, and as to the snow topic, I'd say yes probably. The sfc BL may be 33-34 in some areas, but thats about it and the 850 and 540's will be definitely cold enough. Since its only 3 days out, time to make a first call. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Do tell... Can only see 4 panel maps in 24 hour frames but storm is more organized earlier and upper/mid-levels are great except for se va. Definitely looks colder but can't tell what surface is like exactly. Help on precip and 2m anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sounds about right Bob, and as to the snow topic, I'd say yes probably. The sfc BL may be 33-34 in some areas, but thats about it and the 850 and 540's will be definitely cold enough. Since its only 3 days out, time to make a first call. 2-4" 33-34 in dc metro or everywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 euro certainly colder....but still a bit dry....a 1-2" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 euro certainly colder....but still a bit dry....a 1-2" storm Yes colder, and wetter relatively speaking, hopefully it gets wetter again tonight and the American models hop back on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HPC has gone pretty aggressive for being a few days out... 1" Prob - 4" - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 well if you believe in trends, then each storm recently has gotten better for us, so maybe next storm will be our hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 euro certainly colder....but still a bit dry....a 1-2" storm I'd rather it's cold look tha the gfs warmer one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If I have this right, this storm won't be much dissimilar to the past two events.....more snow the further n/w you are from 95? I should have known better than to move to aa county last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If I have this right, this storm won't be much dissimilar to the past two events.....more snow the further n/w you are from 95? I should have known better than to move to aa county last year. we might be in a better spot with this one (vs. Christmas Eve and today's event) as the heaviest precip seems to be further south and even the Euro has the 850 0 line in central VA these storms have been getting wetter as we approach the system so I've got my weenie fingers crossed we wind up in the .3-.5" qpf range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 we might be in a better spot with this one (vs. Christmas Eve and today's event) as the heaviest precip seems to be further south and even the Euro has the 850 0 line in central VA these storms have been getting wetter as we approach the system so I've got my weenie fingers crossed we wind up in the .3-.5" qpf range Yeah I've been doubting these past few events and got .5 Monday and over an inch today, both pretty events while the snow lasted. Saturday/Sunday looks all snow, and I'm thinking 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM a nice improvement from 12z where we got shut out. Baltimore over .15, down by wes .3 Getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's an improvement on the 18Z NAM compared to 12Z, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not shocking to see a bunch of SE suppressed models suddenly get more organized and wetter. The models will juice up a bit and seeing the NAM start the process is no big surprise. I'm sure it will go too far in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not shocking to see a bunch of SE suppressed models suddenly get more organized and wetter. The models will juice up a bit and seeing the NAM start the process is no big surprise. I'm sure it will go too far in the coming days. The NAM is useless unfortunately....need to see the other models get juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I switched my flight to Friday so I won't miss the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I switched my flight to Friday so I won't miss the event No. You stay there. From one of my favorite movies, Mr. Deeds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GEFS had a nice look for this event. Not sure why LWX is going rain-dominant in the zones for Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z GFS is ok.,..just kind of warm...2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z GFS is ok.,..just kind of warm...2"? looks faster coming in as well, late night early morning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12Z Canadian had a pretty decent event, at least with upper air temps and qpf 72 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif 84 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 if the 18z can't deliver a 6-10" blizzard, we probably aren't getting one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GEFS had a nice look for this event. Not sure why LWX is going rain-dominant in the zones for Saturday... Just like they went rain and sleet for this event near the cities. And the tv mets last night calling for rain and *maybe* sleet close in. I have to be honest and its absolutely no knock on lwx because expecting a detailed breakdown like we do here doesn't work for the public. But I think we collectively do a much better short lead on this board than just about any public source. I find myself listening to lwx or tv less and less at short leads. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 wrt surface temps, the National snow cover has really improved in the past week at least now NW'ly breezes should be able to maintain their chill can't hurt for this weekend AND, this map will look even better tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Chicago has a DC snow hole going in it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the 66 hr sounding for all of DC metro is kind of ugly with a warm nose at 950mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the 66 hr sounding for all of DC metro is kind of ugly with a warm nose at 950mb Alrighty, we'll see how it goes. Might as well wait for 0z, got a feelin theyll be a bit different anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the 66 hr sounding for all of DC metro is kind of ugly with a warm nose at 950mb on the 18z run 3-4 days out? Lol you need some snow bro....come visit on Saturday we can throw snowballs at Dave's and ji's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 on the 18z run 3-4 days out? Lol you need some snow bro....come visit on Saturday we can throw snowballs at Dave's and ji's house we're 60 hours out dude......this thing comes in Friday night....and it has never looked particularly healthy on any run in the last 2 days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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