WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GEFS had a nice look for this event. Not sure why LWX is going rain-dominant in the zones for Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z GFS is ok.,..just kind of warm...2"? looks faster coming in as well, late night early morning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12Z Canadian had a pretty decent event, at least with upper air temps and qpf 72 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif 84 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GEFS had a nice look for this event. Not sure why LWX is going rain-dominant in the zones for Saturday... Just like they went rain and sleet for this event near the cities. And the tv mets last night calling for rain and *maybe* sleet close in. I have to be honest and its absolutely no knock on lwx because expecting a detailed breakdown like we do here doesn't work for the public. But I think we collectively do a much better short lead on this board than just about any public source. I find myself listening to lwx or tv less and less at short leads. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 wrt surface temps, the National snow cover has really improved in the past week at least now NW'ly breezes should be able to maintain their chill can't hurt for this weekend AND, this map will look even better tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Chicago has a DC snow hole going in it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the 66 hr sounding for all of DC metro is kind of ugly with a warm nose at 950mb Alrighty, we'll see how it goes. Might as well wait for 0z, got a feelin theyll be a bit different anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the 66 hr sounding for all of DC metro is kind of ugly with a warm nose at 950mb on the 18z run 3-4 days out? Lol you need some snow bro....come visit on Saturday we can throw snowballs at Dave's and ji's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 we're 60 hours out dude......this thing comes in Friday night....and it has never looked particularly healthy on any run in the last 2 days..... i guess...models seem to be missing warm nose placements lately until they get on top of the event...we will see...you still need snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I got some this morning... I suppose, as in the last immediate models, I like more what I saw. Just wait for 0z then we can make a better call. I'm not calling any trends of any sort, just wanna see what it shows. I really want the canadian to hold with a solid little storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I usually don't pay much attention to the Canadian, but the RGEM nailed today's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It did, but that still doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be right for any of the next few events. I usually don't pay much attention to the Canadian, but the RGEM nailed today's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 These maps aren't always accurate, but these guys know what they're doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 it'll be interesting to see how this current, rather potent system affects the way the next one is modeled in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT says Euro ensemble 0.25-0.75" liquid (all snow) for DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT says Euro ensemble 0.25-0.75" liquid (all snow) for DC and Baltimore. From what I see its about .2-.25 MAYBE, maybe I'm missing something, but a nice low track. Definitely leaves the potential for good things on 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM thru 54 hrs looks on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM thru 54 hrs looks on track meh, it petered out by 60hrs go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM thru 54 hrs looks on track Through 60 better QPF further north, upper levels look improved, so even if the sfc is not immediately responding, this looks like it will juice up on the way to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Thanks. Most of the GEFS members are wetter than the Op, but we're on the hair-edge of GFS ensemble utility. SREFs aren't quite in range yet, but will be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 So many things can change now till Saturday. It is funny to see the snow hole in DC & Chicago. Plenty of winter left and with the Eurasia snow cover coming on strong late lets me believe in some late surprises unfolding and a backload winter will be knocking on our doors down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 meh, it petered out by 60hrs go figure Petered in a similar fashion to 18z, I like the shortwave, I feel like it will end up at least giving us .3 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Through 60 better QPF further north, upper levels look improved, so even if the sfc is not immediately responding, this looks like it will juice up on the way to game time. I guess we're looking at different maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I guess we're looking at different maps! No I was using IWM.com (3 hr panels, 6 hr precip), didn't feel like using AW pro or SV. Anyways, NAM just loses the QPF. I'm tempted to weigh less on it considering its lackluster performance of late and Zwyts giving us all permission to believe its garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No I was using IWM.com (3 hr panels, 6 hr precip), didn't feel like using AW pro or SV. Anyways, NAM just loses the QPF. I'm tempted to weigh less on it considering its lackluster performance of late and Zwyts giving us all permission to believe its garbage. truth be told, it has been up and down on Sat with seemingly more run to run variability....at least that's what I've convinced myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 truth be told, it has been up and down on Sat with seemingly more run to run variability....at least that's what I've convinced myself No you're definitely right. SREF's as Wxusaf said are a bit out of range, NAM of course is especially with recent performance. However, SREF's show a decent amount of QPF (i.e. greater than .3" on the mean if I was looking at the correct 0z on raleigh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Not that the nam matters, but I do look at the thermal profiles--like the 18z GFS, it's warm from h85 down. Would be a wet, non accumulation snow at best as shown. (My area ROA-LYH) Still time, but no reall push of cold air is always a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Not that the nam matters, but I do look at the thermal profiles--like the 18z GFS, it's warm from h85 down. Would be a wet, non accumulation snow at best as shown. (My area ROA-LYH) Still time, but no reall push of cold air is always a concern. I just checked the 18Z GFS soundings....yikes! same warm garbage 925mb on down on a positive note, the 1/2-1/3 event is cold as he!! on the GFS the real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I just checked the 18Z GFS soundings....yikes! same warm garbage 925mb on down on a positive note, the 1/2-1/3 event is cold as he!! on the GFS the real deal Marginal in my area-- but that changes. However, things tend to trend warmer on the models. Perhaps this snow cover will finally pay off. Were have the 1040 highs been? Heck I think a 1030 would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I just checked the 18Z GFS soundings....yikes! same warm garbage 925mb on down on a positive note, the 1/2-1/3 event is cold as he!! on the GFS the real deal We have a better chance IMHO with Saturday, that LL warmth on the GFS is not the real deal. The 1/2-1/3 is nice at the UL, i just dont like the energy interaction. Lemme see some more runs first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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