PhineasC Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z gfs....a weak daytime event....snow again for Loudoun and snow/mix for the rest?...maybe 1-2"..probably 1" or less for me....daytime event... Looks similar to the first half of today's storm. So the snow/sleet part without the driving rain afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yea zwyts, not looking pretty and not much time. Small favorable trend in last 3 gfs runs. Latest is the most amplified (not saying much) . We can squeeze something here. There is plenty of room to improve to a 1-3 in the cities. 2-4 if the stars align. 0z - 6z - 12z panel order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Going in the wrong direction with this one. Still have time for improvement tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yea zwyts, not looking pretty and not much time. Small favorable trend in last 3 gfs runs. Latest is the most amplified (not saying much) . We can squeeze something here. There is plenty of room to improve to a 1-3 in the cities. 2-4 if the stars align. 0z - 6z - 12z panel order. It looks fine if you set expectations correctly. Perhaps this is the return of the old-fashioned winters where we got a bunch of 1-3/2-4/4-6 type events. We are used to having to hunt on the models for a bomb, I guess. Feast or famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Going in the wrong direction with this one. Still have time for improvement tho WinterWxLuvr isn't giving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It looks fine if you set expectations correctly. Perhaps this is the return of the old-fashioned winters where we got a bunch of 1-3/2-4/4-6 type events. We are used to having to hunt on the models for a bomb, I guess. Feast or famine. Pretty much. The 70's and early 80's were loaded with 1-3 / 2-4. Just a hunch but storms seem to improve and juice up on the models as we close in on them. And having this one scraping to the south is FAR from a bad thing. 1-3" is very much in the realm. We'll see. Maybe we get really lucky. Active fast flow is fun regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think most events the next couple weeks will be minor in the cities and closer in burbs...your 4-6" event is kind of rosy....so far BWI/DCA have 0 inches and IAD - 0.2"...they may add a bit today...and we are on the way to one of the warmest Decembers on record...there is nothing old fashioned about this winter....Last winter was a statistical anomaly...we are going to get wintry events...we do almost every winter, but I doubt we see some SECS on the coastal plain anytime soon...hopefully I am wrong I get what you are saying, but I don't live at the airport. This week has been about what I was hoping it would be. I think some folks here get too wrapped around the "setup" axle comparing every event to some magical analog and then being disappointed that it didn't live up to it. I see this next event being more of the same, which is fine for one of the warmest Decembers ever in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Very warm month obviously, but if we get a general 1-3" on Saturday, many folks above the fall line will be near climo December snowfall. Not too bad since we'll probably post a +5F on the month, even with this near-normal last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 so far this winter is reminding me of all the semi-crappy winters of the late 80s, 90s...2001-02, 2011-12 are statistical anomalies...we will do better than that...but we will probably nickel and dime and mix and sleet and ice our way to 8" at DCA and more in the burbs....I think there is a good shot at a moderate snow event or maybe 2 for all of DC metro...maybe February?....impossible to say...so far this winter looks nothing like the cold and snowy winters of the late 70s and early to mid 80s.... Definitely wasn't trying to compare the temps. Just seemed like small events were much more common. But when I sit and think about it, it was colder back then. That can't really be argued. So, all the crap storms that dropped an inch or less last winter would have been 1-3 / 2-4 back in the 70's and 80's. Marginal temps seem to be a common theme the last decade+ except for the "perfect" ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think your expectations are reasonable and if we can't enjoy these types of events we are going to be disappointed in almost every winter....I still think we get a cold month...I think February...Wes wasn't sure whether Jan or FEB....many of the 8-12"(more for you obviously) were enjoyable...very few winter are like last winter....maybe there was a silver lining...we set the bar low for this winter The Saturday event still is pretty iffy with that doggone trough running up towards the lakes. Our western guys can survive it but usually we have trouble and warm up in the boundary layerer sort of like the 12Z GFS is showing. Still it all depends on how quikcly the southern stream develops. If it is too slow, we'll warm just enough for rain. I saw about 5 to 10 minutes of mixed snow, sleet and rain. Living east of the city sometimes stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hard to reload so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro looking damn good nothing like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro looking damn good nothing like the gfs Do tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Improvement from 0z on the Euro, .3 for my location, better than the like .01 from last run. Coastal develops just off NC, regardless, an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro is plausible...and so is the gfs. Short space between systems with no predominant -nao is going to be tough to model. Another very subtle setup. It looks like we've moved to a wet pattern and I think we've all had a pretty good outlook on this one. I say we get pasted in a nice stripe of .25-.50. All snow? Who knows...unless you live in winchester / westminster etc... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro is plausible...and so is the gfs. Short space between systems with no predominant -nao is going to be tough to model. Another very subtle setup. It looks like we've moved to a wet pattern and I think we've all had a pretty good outlook on this one. I say we get pasted in a nice stripe of .25-.50. All snow? Who knows...unless you live in winchester / westminster etc... lol Sounds about right Bob, and as to the snow topic, I'd say yes probably. The sfc BL may be 33-34 in some areas, but thats about it and the 850 and 540's will be definitely cold enough. Since its only 3 days out, time to make a first call. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Do tell... Can only see 4 panel maps in 24 hour frames but storm is more organized earlier and upper/mid-levels are great except for se va. Definitely looks colder but can't tell what surface is like exactly. Help on precip and 2m anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sounds about right Bob, and as to the snow topic, I'd say yes probably. The sfc BL may be 33-34 in some areas, but thats about it and the 850 and 540's will be definitely cold enough. Since its only 3 days out, time to make a first call. 2-4" 33-34 in dc metro or everywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 euro certainly colder....but still a bit dry....a 1-2" storm Yes colder, and wetter relatively speaking, hopefully it gets wetter again tonight and the American models hop back on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HPC has gone pretty aggressive for being a few days out... 1" Prob - 4" - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 well if you believe in trends, then each storm recently has gotten better for us, so maybe next storm will be our hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 euro certainly colder....but still a bit dry....a 1-2" storm I'd rather it's cold look tha the gfs warmer one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If I have this right, this storm won't be much dissimilar to the past two events.....more snow the further n/w you are from 95? I should have known better than to move to aa county last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If I have this right, this storm won't be much dissimilar to the past two events.....more snow the further n/w you are from 95? I should have known better than to move to aa county last year. we might be in a better spot with this one (vs. Christmas Eve and today's event) as the heaviest precip seems to be further south and even the Euro has the 850 0 line in central VA these storms have been getting wetter as we approach the system so I've got my weenie fingers crossed we wind up in the .3-.5" qpf range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 we might be in a better spot with this one (vs. Christmas Eve and today's event) as the heaviest precip seems to be further south and even the Euro has the 850 0 line in central VA these storms have been getting wetter as we approach the system so I've got my weenie fingers crossed we wind up in the .3-.5" qpf range Yeah I've been doubting these past few events and got .5 Monday and over an inch today, both pretty events while the snow lasted. Saturday/Sunday looks all snow, and I'm thinking 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM a nice improvement from 12z where we got shut out. Baltimore over .15, down by wes .3 Getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's an improvement on the 18Z NAM compared to 12Z, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not shocking to see a bunch of SE suppressed models suddenly get more organized and wetter. The models will juice up a bit and seeing the NAM start the process is no big surprise. I'm sure it will go too far in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I switched my flight to Friday so I won't miss the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I switched my flight to Friday so I won't miss the event No. You stay there. From one of my favorite movies, Mr. Deeds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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