December 29-30 storm.

[Deck Pic]

12/29 - 6-10"

1/3 - 18-24"

1/8 - 12-16"

[Deck Pic]

2-4" on the GFS but I wonder about the column and BL...vort is to our north...it would be nice to see something more organized to our south

[WinterWxLuvr]

2-4" on the GFS but I wonder about the column and BL...vort is to our north...it would be nice to see something more organized to our south

Trending in a good way though. I like your first call of 6-10.

[87storms]

it certainly doesn't look like a big event, but i guess even a couple inches of snow would be a win at this point...been long enough.

[mitchnick]

12/29-12/30's big brother is on the map at 120 hrs it seems

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F26%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=120&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

[87storms]

12/29-12/30's big brother is on the map at 120 hrs it seems

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L

i have a feeling that one could get interesting.

[wxmeddler]

I was informed today that I'm going to be 90 miles south of my usual location..

[Bob Chill]

NAM's picking up our new climo pretty good for this event.

[PhineasC]

What did last night's Euro do with this event? I assume the lack of discussion means it was a suppressed mess?

[WxUSAF]

What did last night's Euro do with this event? I assume the lack of discussion means it was a suppressed mess?

Light snow, but nothing substantial.

[Deck Pic]

12z gfs....a weak daytime event....snow again for Loudoun and snow/mix for the rest?...maybe 1-2"..probably 1" or less for me....daytime event...

[clueless]

12z gfs....a weak daytime event....snow again for Loudoun and snow/mix for the rest?...maybe 1-2"..probably 1" or less for me....daytime event...

Eh. Still some time left. After this week I wouldn't bet on anything.

[PhineasC]

12z gfs....a weak daytime event....snow again for Loudoun and snow/mix for the rest?...maybe 1-2"..probably 1" or less for me....daytime event...

Looks similar to the first half of today's storm. So the snow/sleet part without the driving rain afterwards.

[Bob Chill]

Yea zwyts, not looking pretty and not much time. Small favorable trend in last 3 gfs runs. Latest is the most amplified (not saying much) .

We can squeeze something here. There is plenty of room to improve to a 1-3 in the cities. 2-4 if the stars align.

0z - 6z - 12z panel order.

[stormtracker]

Going in the wrong direction with this one. Still have time for improvement tho

[PhineasC]

Yea zwyts, not looking pretty and not much time. Small favorable trend in last 3 gfs runs. Latest is the most amplified (not saying much) .

We can squeeze something here. There is plenty of room to improve to a 1-3 in the cities. 2-4 if the stars align.

0z - 6z - 12z panel order.

It looks fine if you set expectations correctly. Perhaps this is the return of the old-fashioned winters where we got a bunch of 1-3/2-4/4-6 type events. We are used to having to hunt on the models for a bomb, I guess. Feast or famine.

[Ian]

Going in the wrong direction with this one. Still have time for improvement tho

WinterWxLuvr isn't giving up

[Deck Pic]

It looks fine if you set expectations correctly. Perhaps this is the return of the old-fashioned winters where we got a bunch of 1-3/2-4/4-6 type events. We are used to having to hunt on the models for a bomb, I guess. Feast or famine.

I think most events the next couple weeks will be minor in the cities and closer in burbs...your 4-6" event is kind of rosy....so far BWI/DCA have 0 inches and IAD - 0.2"...they may add a bit today...and we are on the way to one of the warmest Decembers on record...there is nothing old fashioned about this winter....Last winter was a statistical anomaly...we are going to get wintry events...we do almost every winter, but I doubt we see some SECS on the coastal plain anytime soon...hopefully I am wrong

[Bob Chill]

It looks fine if you set expectations correctly. Perhaps this is the return of the old-fashioned winters where we got a bunch of 1-3/2-4/4-6 type events. We are used to having to hunt on the models for a bomb, I guess. Feast or famine.

Pretty much. The 70's and early 80's were loaded with 1-3 / 2-4.

Just a hunch but storms seem to improve and juice up on the models as we close in on them. And having this one scraping to the south is FAR from a bad thing. 1-3" is very much in the realm. We'll see. Maybe we get really lucky. Active fast flow is fun regardless.

[PhineasC]

I think most events the next couple weeks will be minor in the cities and closer in burbs...your 4-6" event is kind of rosy....so far BWI/DCA have 0 inches and IAD - 0.2"...they may add a bit today...and we are on the way to one of the warmest Decembers on record...there is nothing old fashioned about this winter....Last winter was a statistical anomaly...we are going to get wintry events...we do almost every winter, but I doubt we see some SECS on the coastal plain anytime soon...hopefully I am wrong

I get what you are saying, but I don't live at the airport. This week has been about what I was hoping it would be. I think some folks here get too wrapped around the "setup" axle comparing every event to some magical analog and then being disappointed that it didn't live up to it. I see this next event being more of the same, which is fine for one of the warmest Decembers ever in the MA.

[Deck Pic]

Pretty much. The 70's and early 80's were loaded with 1-3 / 2-4.

Just a hunch but storms seem to improve and juice up on the models as we close in on them. And having this one scraping to the south is FAR from a bad thing. 1-3" is very much in the realm. We'll see. Maybe we get really lucky. Active fast flow is fun regardless.

so far this winter is reminding me of all the semi-crappy winters of the late 80s, 90s...2001-02, 2011-12 are statistical anomalies...we will do better than that...but we will probably nickel and dime and mix and sleet and ice our way to 8" at DCA and more in the burbs....I think there is a good shot at a moderate snow event or maybe 2 for all of DC metro...maybe February?....impossible to say...so far this winter looks nothing like the cold and snowy winters of the late 70s and early to mid 80s....

[WxUSAF]

Very warm month obviously, but if we get a general 1-3" on Saturday, many folks above the fall line will be near climo December snowfall. Not too bad since we'll probably post a +5F on the month, even with this near-normal last few days.

[Deck Pic]

I get what you are saying, but I don't live at the airport. This week has been about what I was hoping it would be. I think some folks here get too wrapped around the "setup" axle comparing every event to some magical analog and then being disappointed that it didn't live up to it. I see this next event being more of the same, which is fine for one of the warmest Decembers ever in the MA.

I think your expectations are reasonable and if we can't enjoy these types of events we are going to be disappointed in almost every winter....I still think we get a cold month...I think February...Wes wasn't sure whether Jan or FEB....many of the 8-12"(more for you obviously) were enjoyable...very few winter are like last winter....maybe there was a silver lining...we set the bar low for this winter

[Bob Chill]

so far this winter is reminding me of all the semi-crappy winters of the late 80s, 90s...2001-02, 2011-12 are statistical anomalies...we will do better than that...but we will probably nickel and dime and mix and sleet and ice our way to 8" at DCA and more in the burbs....I think there is a good shot at a moderate snow event or maybe 2 for all of DC metro...maybe February?....impossible to say...so far this winter looks nothing like the cold and snowy winters of the late 70s and early to mid 80s....

Definitely wasn't trying to compare the temps. Just seemed like small events were much more common. But when I sit and think about it, it was colder back then. That can't really be argued. So, all the crap storms that dropped an inch or less last winter would have been 1-3 / 2-4 back in the 70's and 80's. Marginal temps seem to be a common theme the last decade+ except for the "perfect" ones.

[usedtobe]

I think your expectations are reasonable and if we can't enjoy these types of events we are going to be disappointed in almost every winter....I still think we get a cold month...I think February...Wes wasn't sure whether Jan or FEB....many of the 8-12"(more for you obviously) were enjoyable...very few winter are like last winter....maybe there was a silver lining...we set the bar low for this winter

The Saturday event still is pretty iffy with that doggone trough running up towards the lakes. Our western guys can survive it but usually we have trouble and warm up in the boundary layerer sort of like the 12Z GFS is showing. Still it all depends on how quikcly the southern stream develops. If it is too slow, we'll warm just enough for rain. I saw about 5 to 10 minutes of mixed snow, sleet and rain. Living east of the city sometimes stinks.

[Deck Pic]

The Saturday event still is pretty iffy with that doggone trough running up towards the lakes. Our western guys can survive it but usually we have trouble and warm up in the boundary layerer sort of like the 12Z GFS is showing. Still it all depends on how quikcly the southern stream develops. If it is too slow, we'll warm just enough for rain. I saw about 5 to 10 minutes of mixed snow, sleet and rain. Living east of the city sometimes stinks.

I did a bit better in OId Town...around 1/2" (probably 0.4" but I'll round ....a spotter in Mt Vernon reported 0.3" at 9:15 so I think 1/2" ic accurate....changed back to moderate snow after the 1st 0.2" or so then some sleet accumulation as well....not bad...crunchy downtown

[Wonderdog]

Hard to reload so quickly.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Euro looking damn good nothing like the gfs

[mattie g]

Euro looking damn good nothing like the gfs

Do tell...

[TUweathermanDD]

Improvement from 0z on the Euro, .3 for my location, better than the like .01 from last run. Coastal develops just off NC, regardless, an improvement.