brad1551 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 37F in Manassas. On my way to work now and if there was precip at the moment it would be rain. What a bust!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah Im 38.7 with a Dew of 33.4 When it gets here in 2-3 hours it will be rain... We need some REAL cold! Tired of this rain/snow line debate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Light mist this morning at 34 with temp starting to rise slowly. It's hard to tell what type of precip fell after I went to bed, but I think it was mostly sleet with some rain and a few flakes of snow thrown in. The temp hovered around 33 after midnight. There is about 0.2" of slush on cold surfaces and the grass. I recorded 0.34" of melted liquid in the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Actually, the much hated NAm has a dry slot and didn't start any precip until around 15Z or so and it also had warm surface temps. I suspect we still get some light precip for the city and it will probably be light rain. I don't understand everyone getting so angry, this was never supposed to be a big event and I know I mentioned at least once that there were more things that could go wrong with the event than right. Last night after seeing the GFS, Matt made the comment "next" as it didn't look particularly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Light snow beginning to pick up in intensity here. 0.5" of new accumulation so far. 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Actually, the much hated NAm has a dry slot and didn't start any precip until around 15Z or so and it also had warm surface temps. I suspect we still get some light precip for the city and it will probably be light rain. I don't understand everyone getting so angry, this was never supposed to be a big event and I know I mentioned at least once that there were more things that could go wrong with the event than right. Last night after seeing the GFS, Matt made the comment "next" as it didn't look particularly good. i actually ended up hedging toward the low end of our previous map for today but clearly that wasn't enough.. might not get any accum anywhere locally. so the 9 spi looks pretty bad.. of course it's only for 0.1"+ at one airport. the comments are pretty funny on cwg and social media. i've been doing some morning chuckling. i mean, if we were expecting maybe 0.5" snow and we get nothing how big a bust is that? ppl act like we stole a snowstorm from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Actually, the much hated NAm has a dry slot and didn't start any precip until around 15Z or so and it also had warm surface temps. I suspect we still get some light precip for the city and it will probably be light rain. I don't understand everyone getting so angry, this was never supposed to be a big event and I know I mentioned at least once that there were more things that could go wrong with the event than right. Last night after seeing the GFS, Matt made the comment "next" as it didn't look particularly good. Totally agree! We are busting on losing out on 1 inch of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 the mountains mangled this storm and not having a strong high to the north drawing in atlantic moisture didn't help the situation. too many variables with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Actually, the much hated NAm has a dry slot and didn't start any precip until around 15Z or so and it also had warm surface temps. I suspect we still get some light precip for the city and it will probably be light rain. I don't understand everyone getting so angry, this was never supposed to be a big event and I know I mentioned at least once that there were more things that could go wrong with the event than right. Last night after seeing the GFS, Matt made the comment "next" as it didn't look particularly good. I've followed your insight the whole time. You've been dead on right with this one and just about every other so far. I'm sitting here with rain in Williamsburg and I can't help but lol at the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 predicting the future is hard. people who never do it generally complain the most.. everyone who forecasts busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Radar filing in some now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i wonder how long lwx is going to hold out.. everyone is pretty mild even if we get precip soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i actually ended up hedging toward the low end of our previous map for today but clearly that wasn't enough.. might not get any accum anywhere locally. so the 9 spi looks pretty bad.. of course it's only for 0.1"+ at one airport. the comments are pretty funny on cwg and social media. i've been doing some morning chuckling. i mean, if we were expecting maybe 0.5" snow and we get nothing how big a bust is that? ppl act like we stole a snowstorm from them. I agree, Not much of a bust at all. Plus or minus 1.5" is pretty accurate. This area really in my book could be one of the hardest areas to predict snow accumulations. So many variables. It can go wrong real fast. We should get use to a 1-4 instead of a 2-4. And use 4-8 as the next step exceeding the 4". To many perameters, mets are just begging for failures if they try to be too accurate. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just a coating so far. You can see the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i actually ended up hedging toward the low end of our previous map for today but clearly that wasn't enough.. might not get any accum anywhere locally. so the 9 spi looks pretty bad.. of course it's only for 0.1"+ at one airport. the comments are pretty funny on cwg and social media. i've been doing some morning chuckling. i mean, if we were expecting maybe 0.5" snow and we get nothing how big a bust is that? ppl act like we stole a snowstorm from them. I hadn't looked at CWG but had noticed the angst here. I think the forecast fro the city was an 0.50 or less. That the precip is coming in with the NAm timing is kind of funny since it always gets slammed. I didn't post it last night but the Sref mean was .17 inches of liquid equivalent at dca on the 03Z guidance and most members had dca as almost all rain. Only one member had .17 as snow while the mean was 0.02. I think I saw an earlier one that looked similar. They had been trending lighter and rainier over the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Right. It's all Wes's fault. He hasn't laid out every possibility for days and totally said we were doing to get a huge dumping. Gimme a break. Exactly right. That was a terrible post he made. This isn't a bust.....except for people who ignored the models in favor of what they wanted. These models are good. And Wes is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 sleet and snow mix. been doing this off and on and back and forth for a few hours. Location. Ski Liberty MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 might be too early to call bust for areas around n/ne md as the secondary low organizes. radar is actually starting to fill in a little bit around charlottesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Doh. Nothing good here in Mt Airy. Next storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That stuff coming in doesn't look like snow on dual pol.. maybe some but it must be sleet or rain mainly. Wet bulbs are above freezing except far NW it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well, the dreaded split did its thing, I had a little sleet mixed with rain overnight, turned to snow around 4 am, about 0.5 new and 1.3 on ground, 32.7 degrees. Snowing lightly now, looks like back-end almost here unless what is in southern WV makes a turn. Off to the 'Shoe, everybody have a safe one out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 lol, then you should be doing your own blog and if you thinnk I'm that bad, put me on ignore. That's a pretty easy option. Only joking, I didn't mean for that comment to be taken the wrong way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Doh. Nothing good here in Mt Airy. Next storm? this one isn't over yet. i can't attest to temps, but radar is filling in a bit around CHO... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I hadn't looked at CWG but had noticed the angst here. I think the forecast fro the city was an 0.50 or less. That the precip is coming in with the NAm timing is kind of funny since it always gets slammed. I didn't post it last night but the Sref mean was .17 inches of liquid equivalent at dca on the 03Z guidance and most members had dca as almost all rain. Only one member had .17 as snow while the mean was 0.02. I think I saw an earlier one that looked similar. They had been trending lighter and rainier over the past couple of days. The NAM is usually pretty good within 24 hours. It's my primary short term guidance in that range.. maybe not quite as good on synoptic winter storms but probably gets more flak than it should. When it's extra bouncy it's cause for pause but if it's part of the overall trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 light snow and a dusting here north of Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 "i can't attest to temps, but radar is filling in a bit around CHO..." agree, though I do think NE maryland will have some temp issues. I do think most us will have a nice 3 hour round of some good precip. Snow/Sleet/Rain .... if your lucky all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wow. What a disaster. I thought this one would finally give the city dwellers to the east their first inch of snow. Its gonna be rough on the forums for another couple of weeks I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Moderate to heavy snow now. Deck getting covered quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The NAM is usually pretty good within 24 hours. It's my primary short term guidance in that range.. maybe not quite as good on synoptic winter storms but probably gets more flak than it should. When it's extra bouncy it's cause for pause but if it's part of the overall trend... I actually think it was the model to start the "dry slot" trend last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That stuff coming in doesn't look like snow on dual pol.. maybe some but it must be sleet or rain mainly. Wet bulbs are above freezing except far NW it seems. The echoes don't look like snow to me. Where are you getting the Dual Pol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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