Huffwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Radar blowing up nicely in Chareston and Blacksburg. Sleet to start, but that pesky warm layer was expected. Should work itself out, especially western regions up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I may be hallucinating, but doesn't the dry slot look like it's heading south of us? http://www.accuweath...llite-wv?play=1 The gap shown in the WV doesn't match that which is shown on radar (I don't know how to post a radar loop). The WV data shows upper air conditions (18,000 ft) according to Accuwxr. I would assume that is not necessarily an indicator of where precip is falling at the surface. For instance, I thought I read posted on this board somewhere that snow forms around the 850 mb (4000 - 5000 ft) level. I'm just learning, so maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Radar blowing up nicely in Chareston and Blacksburg. Sleet to start, but that pesky warm layer was expected. Should work itself out, especially western regions up there. You're up in WV right now aren't you? You're gonna do way better there than LYH I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 From the depression and negativity in here, you would have thought we busted on a 6-12'er or something! Even if we miss this, which is debatable right now, this doesn't even rank in the top 100 busts, right? I know we are desperate, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 the way radar looks, the system(s), whatever they may be, will be by us by Noon tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not loving the trajectory right now, bit more west than I thought, could get a bit more mild air up here, but I've been away fro several hours and have not been following other info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I may be hallucinating, but doesn't the dry slot look like it's heading south of us? http://www.accuweath...llite-wv?play=1 the moisture is there, but i think the concern is that we're going to be between the upper level low providing the added lift and the developing coastal low. i think we want that ohio valley energy to be a tad further south. i still think we can eek this one out, but it'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this is as bad as the March 2001 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 here is the next big storm...middle of january..heart of snow season. High in perfect position and......... rain http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 From the depression and negativity in here, you would have thought we busted on a 6-12'er or something! Even if we miss this, which is debatable right now, this doesn't even rank in the top 100 busts, right? I know we are desperate, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 From the depression and negativity in here, you would have thought we busted on a 6-12'er or something! Even if we miss this, which is debatable right now, this doesn't even rank in the top 100 busts, right? I know we are desperate, but... Forecasts are for 1-3 inches at most. I don't think getting a dusting would be much of a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 You're up in WV right now aren't you? You're gonna do way better there than LYH I bet. Yeah, in Lewisburg so I have up RNK and CRT radar. Some of the model data shows like 4-6 here. Lewisburg is a relative low spot, so 4 works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 the moisture is there, but i think the concern is that we're going to be between the upper level low providing the added lift and the developing coastal low. i think we want that ohio valley energy to be a tad further south. i still think we can eek this one out, but it'll be close. Yeah, I realize that, certainly looks healthy. But based on water vapor loop, it looks like the gap between the two systems is 1. closing and 2. heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 most of the gfs run is cold except when there is precip. Then its warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 here is the next big storm...middle of january..heart of snow season. High in perfect position and......... rain http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif A high 400 miles north of the Quebec/New England border isn't that good. Get it over Montreal and you can complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 here is the next big storm...middle of january..heart of snow season. High in perfect position and......... rain http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif At least you take solace in knowing that the models will be changing right up to start time, so no use getting depressed over fantasy-land runs. Of course, you could also fret the fact that we live in the MA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Forecasts are for 1-3 inches at most. I don't think getting a dusting would be much of a bust. Agree. Disappointing sure, but this was never a big storm. It's just that the region is desperate for something. I'm sane because I've had a pretty nice week out here so far. I'm happy if we get 1" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Flurries have commenced in Lewisburg, WV-- Don't let me down-- I've got three kids fired up to sled in the AM on FRESH snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this is as bad as the March 2001 bust at least you had a great few days of winter this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 A high 400 miles north of the Quebec/New England border isn't that good. Get it over Montreal and you can complain. you can have a green tag, gold tag or a black tag, but you'll turn blue before you can stifle JI from complaining lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 most of the gfs run is cold except when there is precip. Then its warm phineas is one of the best forecasters here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 A high 400 miles north of the Quebec/New England border isn't that good. Get it over Montreal and you can complain. lol its a little north but it aint 400 miles from Montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Flurries have commenced in Lewisburg, WV-- Don't let me down-- I've got three kids fired up to sled in the AM on FRESH snow. These flakes are not the actual system, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 These flakes are not the actual system, correct? Yes, I'm in WV-- eastern MTS, west of Hot Springs. System is fast- will be over before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 phineas is one of the best forecasters here I agree. He got that warm/wet cold/dry forecast right from like 3 years out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 lol its a little north but it aint 400 miles from Montreal You need a geography lesson...its at the same latitude as southern James Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yes, I'm in WV-- eastern MTS, west of Hot Springs. System is fast- will be over before dawn. it'll be by all of us before the Euro comes out at this rate! good luck down there Huff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Negative Nancys' are almost as bad as Wishcasting Weenies, JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 DC split already becoming evident on composite reflectivity. If either airport records an inch, I will be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 You need a geography lesson...its at the same latitude as southern James Bay. that's the least of his problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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