H2O Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I've been troubled with the dual low setup for days. Latest model runs really don't surprise me. Looking at radar during the mid afternoon it looked good and I was really hoping that a clear split between the shields wouldn't happen but man, you can see it plain as day. I guess the southern low can do some things to surprise us but I've been bearish all day. I should have taken the damn blue pill. Right now everyone should turn off their CPUs, go to bed, wake up at 5am and THEN see what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Radar looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Right now everyone should turn off their CPUs, go to bed, wake up at 5am and THEN see what it is doing. I've been pretty useless the last 24 hours re: this event.....I think your advice is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Off to bed. Headed to 'Shoe in the am. Looks like my fear of the split is coming to a head. Hanging at 32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 models are smarter than most of us. But maybe the models are too smart for their own good? I mean, if this storm was looking good for us on the models we'd all be in nowcast mode, disregarding the models for the most part. But since the models are showing a screw job, we want to hug the GFS/NAM until the end.....but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 maybe the coastal will bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 gross... temp up .5 from 35.5 to 36 in the last hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I've been sitting at 36 degrees since 7pm. DP at 29. Looks like some precip nudging into the area now with some reports of sleet SW of Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Don't look at the 1z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 But maybe the models are too smart for their own good? I mean, if this storm was looking good for us on the models we'd all be in nowcast mode, disregarding the models for the most part. But since the models are showing a screw job, we want to hug the GFS/NAM until the end.....but what do I know. We're conditioned to expect the worst when it comes to these situations I suppose. In my mind I see the models showing (light) precip hole that looks to me to match the gap in the precip shield that is moving in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think everyone should freak out as much as possible and stay up 24+ hours. me? I'm going to sleep. Sleep for me. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Since 2010, there hasn't been a single "simple" snow for us.. Even the clippers were nail biters that had QPF in models fluctuating until the end to yield our measly 1.5". It's just been one of those stretches. This fluctuation in the QPF is nothing compared to the late Feb bust in 2011-- remember the runs getting better and better until we got a WSW for the suburbs at the onset of precip? Instead, Philly got 6" while we got less than half of the modeled precip from 6 hours lead time for sleet changing to a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm in SW PA. Greensburg ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm in SW PA. Greensburg ftw You're alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 You're alive! I know yall miss me. I miss my Mid Atl crew. Even when we're getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm in SW PA. Greensburg ftw Greensburg? God, I'm sorry. Why are you there? You should do fairly well there with snow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Meh....bring on spring time severe weather. On the brightside, we don't have to worry about northerners (hill country folk from Carroll County) gloating about their 3-5 inches. Hey now. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Since 2010, there hasn't been a single "simple" snow for us.. Even the clippers were nail biters that had QPF in models fluctuating until the end to yield our measly 1.5". It's just been one of those stretches. This fluctuation in the QPF is nothing compared to the late Feb bust in 2011-- remember the runs getting better and better until we got a WSW for the suburbs at the onset of precip? Instead, Philly got 6" while we got less than half of the modeled precip from 6 hours lead time for sleet changing to a dusting. 2010-11 was awful...almost every event busted except for 1/26.....I got almost an inch from that one....Phineas/PSU etc got at least 5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 We're conditioned to expect the worst when it comes to these situations I suppose. In my mind I see the models showing (light) precip hole that looks to me to match the gap in the precip shield that is moving in our direction. I may be hallucinating, but doesn't the dry slot look like it's heading south of us? http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/satellite-wv?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I may be hallucinating, but doesn't the dry slot look like it's heading south of us? http://www.accuweath...llite-wv?play=1 I SEE IT TO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 2010-11 was awful...almost every event busted except for 1/26.....I got almost an inch from that one....Phineas/PSU etc got at least 5"... Last winter was rough too with busts, except at least we had slightly longer lead-times that the models were wrong. Remember the February 19-20 narrow snow stripe in central-southern VA that was modeled right over us a couple of days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Really doesn't look bad to me so far... Don't know why everyone is getting so negative. Seems like the dry slot is filling in/ moving south of us. We should stop watching the models and nowcast! Come on people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 2010-11 was awful...almost every event busted except for 1/26.....I got almost an inch from that one....Phineas/PSU etc got at least 5"... A little over 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 the rest of the gfs is cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 the rest of the gfs is cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 probably the most depressing gfs model run of my life tonight. cold and not a flake in sight after tomorrows fiasco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Light sleet coming down right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Light sleet coming down right now. who cares. Roanoke is not DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 who cares. Roanoke is not DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Mix of snow and rain started about an hour ago, 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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