nw baltimore wx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 people are actually considering writing a storm off 4 days away because of 2 runs of the GFS that still give us a track that may produce a couple inches of snow?....WTF is wrong with this forum? I think Phinn was talking about the New Year possibilities, tho I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS screws us yet again. Euro will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 people are actually considering writing a storm off 4 days away because of 2 runs of the GFS that still give us a track that may produce a couple inches of snow?....WTF is wrong with this forum? Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 people are actually considering writing a storm off 4 days away because of 2 runs of the GFS that still give us a track that may produce a couple inches of snow?....WTF is wrong with this forum? Weenie mentality. The Euro looks good, and FWIW HPC prefers the Euro and its ensembles for next 5 days. GFS doesnt seem to know what it wants to do with the 2 vort maxes and ends up doing some sort of a late phase further north. Its solution just looks whacky to me. But what do i know it could be right. Potential is certainly there for a light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS screws us yet again. Euro will tell the tale. i'm not sure anything will tell a tale 4 days out from an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 i'm not sure anything will tell a tale 4 days out from an event As far as confirming the trends on the gfs. I wasn't talking about a final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 people are actually considering writing a storm off 4 days away because of 2 runs of the GFS that still give us a track that may produce a couple inches of snow?....WTF is wrong with this forum? it's the same forum, with the same complaints my concern wrt to this storm is that we're at day 4, signs of our typical screwgy are showing up (dominant nrt stream), and I can't recall a similar scenario switching back in our favor in the next 4 days it seems when it starts going into the cr@pper at day 4, we can't beat the force of the suction pulling it in yesterday was a nice event, but having another one like it while 30 minutes away they see 3"+ isn't much to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 it's the same forum, with the same complaints my concern wrt to this storm is that we're at day 4, signs of our typical screwgy are showing up (dominant nrt stream), and I can't recall a similar scenario switching back in our favor in the next 4 days it seems when it starts going into the cr@pper at day 4, we can't beat the force of the suction pulling it in yesterday was a nice event, but having another one like it while 30 minutes away they see 3"+ isn't much to look forward to The Euro gives a nice event for much of the MA, Canadian is a bit further south. The GFS has the same biases it has always had, and one is not handling northern and southern stream energy correctly. So why focus on its solution at this point...see what the new run of the Euro looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The Euro gives a nice event for much of the MA, Canadian is a bit further south. The GFS has the same biases it has always had, and one is not handling northern and southern stream energy correctly. So why focus on its solution at this point...see what the new run of the Euro looks like. looks pretty good actually from what I can tell off the Underground maps let's hope the GFS is garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 i'm not sure anything will tell a tale 4 days out from an event From the crude Euro the set still looks pretty good despite the weak trof extending towards the lakes> it looks like the vort goes south of us so I assume we get some snow from the run. How much QPF and what are the boundary temps for the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 We need a midlo play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 We need a midlo play by play Wunderground maps would give us 1-2" more in VA believe it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nice run for VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wunderground maps would give us 1-2" more in VA believe it or not The Euro, Canadian, and I believe also the Ukmet all support a more southern/offshore track. See what the Euro ensembles look like on this run. Looked good on previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EURO is much colder than GFS @ 96 hrs in response the more southernly S/W. The split flow showing up on EURO & GFS now for beginning of Jan looks amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 From the crude Euro the set still looks pretty good despite the weak trof extending towards the lakes> it looks like the vort goes south of us so I assume we get some snow from the run. How much QPF and what are the boundary temps for the event? 0.35" and 33-35 but I don't take sfc too seriously with that track (hatteras to off of ORF)...I imagine the column is fine...dont have access to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Great Lakes cutter on the 18Z GFS. EDIT- redevelops a coastal in time to save SNE ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not bad seeing the ull still closed over the maritimes as the vort approaches vs open and moving away on 12z but still, the vort pass and 850 low still not ideal. Just a messy little event overall. Much to be resolved. The questions we have won't be answered until tomorrows event gets north of us. Again, it's a really subtle setup. Much can go wrong...or right. We're only talking about 50-100 further south and itsallgood. Stupid 500 setup in Canada again though. Gotta hope it improves again. It didn't last time but at least this isn't a big wrapped up system. Much easier to get a little lucky. I'm feeling lucky...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z on left and 12z on right in same point in time. 18z is a better trend at the very least. It's another sit and watch Canada and hold on to your seat. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Great Lakes cutter on the 18Z GFS. EDIT- redevelops a coastal in time to save SNE ? Not anywhere near a Great Lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not anywhere near a Great Lakes cutter. Saw a track of the sfc reflection from Memphis to Dayton. Didn't realize it would then head due east on the OH turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Saw a track of the sfc reflection from Memphis to Dayton. Didn't realize it would then head due east on the OH turnpike. lol- I knew exactly what you were looking at. Stick to the 500 panels on this one. No closed ull tracking N like the current storm in the deep south. Just some n stream vorticity cruising along...with the same problem as tomorrow but just not nearly as hard to overcome. We must all wishcast, will, and maybe even sacrifice a yard bunny to get the n stream vort to pass to our south. Or at the very least not be so dominant. And pray for some kind of 50-50 feature or strong blocking high to the north. We can score on this one. We just won't know one way or the other until late tomorrow or thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol- I knew exactly what you were looking at. Stick to the 500 panels on this one. No closed ull tracking N like the current storm in the deep south. Just some n stream vorticity cruising along...with the same problem as tomorrow but just not nearly as hard to overcome. We must all wishcast, will, and maybe even sacrifice a yard bunny to get the n stream vort to pass to our south. Or at the very least not be so dominant. And pray for some kind of 50-50 feature or strong blocking high to the north. We can score on this one. We just won't know one way or the other until late tomorrow or thursday. As long as the Euro shows something decent, I dont care what the GFS has at this point. I realize in the current pattern any subtle change with the 50-50 and whatever blocking exists can make or break this. But the GFS really can be awful with these set ups and I dont buy how its handling the northern and southern stream vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The GFS ens would suggest the operational could be wrong. Several members take the low south of us and up the coast, sort of. With the euro and other guidance taking this south of us, I think there's less of a chance of this cutting than with the present storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The GFS ens would suggest the operational could be wrong. Several members take the low south of us and up the coast, sort of. With the euro and other guidance taking this south of us, I think there's less of a chance of this cutting than with the present storm. 00z NAM is promising at 84hr...aside from the fact that it is the NAM, 850s cold and precip inbound...I wonder what 90hr would look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 00z NAM is promising at 84hr...aside from the fact that it is the NAM, 850s cold and precip inbound...I wonder what 90hr would look like It's not set for a big event. vort is strung out, pretty far north (esp for me) and there isn't really one define low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 00z NAM is promising at 84hr...aside from the fact that it is the NAM, 850s cold and precip inbound...I wonder what 90hr would look like DGEX to the rescue.....sometime after 3AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's not set for a big event. vort is strung out, pretty far north (esp for me) and there isn't really one define low pressure. Not sure anyone up this way really is expecting a big event. 1 to 3 would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not sure anyone up this way really is expecting a big event. 1 to 3 would be great. agree-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not sure anyone up this way really is expecting a big event. 1 to 3 would be great. would be happy with 1 or 2...my expectation meter is set to just below disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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