December 29-30 storm.

[usedtobe]

Wes.. you were posting!

I was but am not really excited enough to post anything of note. I was going to show that the GFS forecast sounding for IAD was actually colder than the observed at 00Z but then thought that it didn't matter as I'm not sure it matters. I think we eastern guys may have already pretty much bottomed out in terms of temps and will probably rise a little during the night with the southeast winds even though they are light though we may drop some from evaporation when the precip first starts. The faster the precip gets to us the better and the harder it falls the better.

[winter_warlock]

i have 34.1 F temp and a 27 degree dewpoint in sparrows point md

[WinterWxLuvr]

This thread has to set the record for temp obs.

[Ian]

I was but am not really excited enough to post anything of note. I was going to show that the GFS forecast sounding for IAD was actually colder than the observed at 00Z but then thought that it didn't matter as I'm not sure it matters. I think we eastern guys may have already pretty much bottomed out in terms of temps and will probably rise a little during the night with the southeast winds even though they are light though we may drop some from evaporation when the precip first starts. The faster the precip gets to us the better and the harder it falls the better.

thx for your thoughts.. always appreciated.

[PhineasC]

The GFS will save us.

[usedtobe]

thx for your thoughts.. always appreciated.

I don't see you Matt or I getting an inch. I thought the Kammerer's forecast was a pretty good one. That's why I'm blase about the storm. Plus, the vort seems to go north of us while the weak southern low passes south and doesn't get its act together until it's by us which suggests precipitation will probably be on the light side (famous last words). Hope I'm wrong.

[WinterWxLuvr]

next

At this point we just have to hope mother nature is just too complicated for pinpoint modeling. If they're right.....what you said.

[mitchnick]

gfs qpf...meh again

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_024_precip_p24.gif

[Ian]

I don't see you Matt or I getting an inch. I thought the Kammerer's forecast was a pretty good one. That's why I'm blase about the storm. Plus, the vort seems to go north of us while the weak southern low passes south and doesn't get its act together until it's by us which suggests precipitation will probably be on the light side (famous last words). Hope I'm wrong.

I'm definitely not excited that DCA is 38/29 with an east wind.. no temp movement really so far. Wet bulbs rising there at least.

[caviman2201]

LWX is about to put out a falling weenie warning as heavy, heavy weenie suicides are expected in the I-95 corridor for the next 3-6 hours.

[mitchnick]

if GFS qpf is correct, there are going to be a lot of 3-5" busted snow forecasts in PA

[87storms]

gfs qpf...meh again

http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p24.gif

we're on the wrong side of the mountains.

[mitchnick]

up to 9 hrs on the GFS looks OK, then 3 of the wheels fall off after that

[mitchnick]

at least I'll get some sleep tonight

the best part is, the NAM does a similar dance at the end of the 0Z run just to draw us back in for 3 days

[mitchnick]

d@mn the computers

it's already snowing overhead of me

http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true

[clueless]

If I get two inches out here I would be in range of forecasts. But did not have expectations. Next.

[Ji]

Nothing like losing .20 qpf right before the storm

[Ian]

Nothing like losing .20 qpf right before the storm

the euro will save us

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

d@mn the computers

it's already snowing overhead of me

http://beta.intellic...ue&animate=true

The good ole Intellicast radar....the radar of choice for weenies and Hallucinators. Anyways, another crappy set-up for a storm...And watch,we'll be cold in Jan but the storm track will be suppressed...Lovely!

[WinterWxLuvr]

On a positive note, this looks pretty healthy presently.

[Ian]

Nothing like losing .20 qpf right before the storm

banding coming to you

[EastCoast NPZ]

Nothing like losing .20 qpf right before the storm

Especially when you only had .25 to start with.

[swimmatte]

Can someone explain to me why people are putting so much stock in the GFS/NAM 6 hours before the storm, when nowcast indications look healthy?

[Ian]

Can someone explain to me why people are putting so much stock in the GFS/NAM 6 hours before the storm, when nowcast indications look healthy?

models are smarter than most of us.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Fox 5 still showing 2-5" out here, 1-2 for NOVA. Seems real bullish based on everything being posted in here (and radar).

[Ji]

There shouldn't be such drastic changes 12 hours before game time.

[clskinsfan]

Storm still looks juicy to me. But what do I know. According to weenie radar there is virga over me already. So we will see how that pans out.

[snowfan]

Meh....bring on spring time severe weather.

On the brightside, we don't have to worry about northerners (hill country folk from Carroll County) gloating about their 3-5 inches.

[Bob Chill]

I've been troubled with the dual low setup for days. Latest model runs really don't surprise me. Looking at radar during the mid afternoon it looked good and I was really hoping that a clear split between the shields wouldn't happen but man, you can see it plain as day. I guess the southern low can do some things to surprise us but I've been bearish all day. I should have taken the damn blue pill.

[mitchnick]

I got an idea, let's erase the board with this storm and start all over

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=ref2&size=large&endDate=20121229&endTime=-1&duration=6