mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 here's the text version of IAD's 7PM sounding this evening not bad really as the wet bulb temps through the column will certainly support snow to start with some wiggle room, though I note some warming going on around 750mb http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Simmering at 28 but I have a 1.5-2 inch snowcover already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Woody trying to be funny in the LWX AFD update Not so much funny as painful. Tweaking snow totals back isn't much of a punchline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 hey, even Wallops Island's soundings at 7pm weren't bad http://weather.unisy...w/skew_KWAL.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 hey, even Wallops Island's soundings at 7pm weren't bad http://weather.unisy...w/skew_KWAL.txt Yea not too bad. I'm feeling alright about it. Last minute moves on radar and 0z failhard NAM make me think we should be alright for our few inches (or inch s of bwi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Good for us at IAD, from Famartin (philly forum) At 0Z, IAD sounding had -1.9 at 925 and -1.3 at 850. NAM initialized with ~-1.5 at 925 and +0.1 at 850.At 0Z, WAL sounding had -0.1 at 925 and +2.6 at 850. NAM initialized with ~+0.5 at 925 and +2.0 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 A number of forecast soundings I've seen are just barely too warm. Granted I haven't seen many other than from recent runs but I still don't see much sign we warm a lot at the sfc while we're precipitating well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 31 / 23 according to local wxbug. temps aren't looking to be an issue here, but the radar returns are looking to be a big concern to my eyes. Extrapolating the radar sure looks to slide the vast bulk of the moisture to my NW, while the trailing precip slides well SE. Not liking our chances for this one at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Woody trying to be funny in the LWX AFD update It doesn't sound very funny to me. It is rather depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Never had a temp concern...just qpf and intensity concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I don't know about anyone else, but to me it looks like the dry air gap in between the two masses of precip is starting to close in on itself... http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like LWX dropped the WWA to 1-3 for most. 2-4 at the Mason-Dixon Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I don't know about anyone else, but to me it looks like the dry air gap in between the two masses of precip is starting to close in on itself... http://www.accuweath...er-radar?play=1 a bit, but what I see that I like on that radar is the rain/snow line crashing south in KY if it's accurate, I think that's good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like LWX dropped the WWA to 1-3 for most. 2-4 at the Mason-Dixon Line. Maybe this is opposite their usual late bump that doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 34/28 here. Certainly cooler than I had expected. 0Z NAM cooled down considerably here. Maybe I have a dog in this fight after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like LWX dropped the WWA to 1-3 for most. 2-4 at the Mason-Dixon Line. sadly, I use that site for obs and history I think every person who has been on this Board 1 month+ knows what model says what and what model they are following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Temps still falling in northern Glen Burnie, but seem to have almost bottomed out... dropped 3.2 degrees from 6-8p, but only .6 degrees from 8-9 and only .3 in the last 45 mins... Not even a tenth of a degree in the last 25 mins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It doesn't sound very funny to me. It is rather depressing. At least it is good to see a meteorologist applying some local knowledge in the forecast. I'm not going to get depressed about a couple less tenths of an inch of snow. Unless it goes from 0.2" to 0.0" possibly...then I will jump off a 45' bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Maybe this is opposite their usual late bump that doesn't verify. Well, the old joke is that if LWX is getting nervous for a bust then get out the snowblowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My temp bottomed out at 34.1 and is back to to 34.6 in the last 30 mins... guess being so close to the bay and the SE breeze is going to hurt me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Some differences between the point and click and the zones in the last update. P & C has the dividing line between 1-3 and 2-4 roughly from Keyser-Great Cacapon- Walkersville- Westminster. But my zone forecast was raised to 3-5" WVZ052-291000- BERKELEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARTINSBURG 930 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH... BECOMING SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm up in Lewisburg, WV -- should do very well here for the event 4-5 inches. There is still an inch of ice/snow on the ground and I took the kids sledding already. (Also hit the hot tub and pool) Will update! Temp is in the upper 20's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Temperature at National Harbor has gone up one degree in the last hour, 34 to 35. Dewpoint 32. Looks like the DC snow hole may be in play. Even though the NAM is showing the coastal low juicing up, the changeover from the dominant low in the west to the coastal low might dry slot us. I hope my interpretation is wrong. I'm looking forward to a little white on the ground come sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 probably just my weenie eyes and pathetic last minute gasping, but I'm noticing on sat and water vapor banding starting to appear in eastern NC you can sort of see it on this sat loop and the water vapor loop below that http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&isingle=multiple&itype=ir http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html meanwhile, rain is developing in eastern NC I don't see any stations reporting rain yet, but it's showing up on the Wilmington and Raleigh, NC radars http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=rax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=mhx&loop=yes in the past, some decent/strong storms have had that banding show up in sat and wv pics because the ncep site is screwed up, I don;t know if the NAM had this though thru the first 6 hrs of the NAM, it shows no precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_006_precip_p06.gif this could all be just as planned by the computers, but just noting it seems seems odd....time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My temp bottomed out at 34.1 and is back to to 34.6 in the last 30 mins... guess being so close to the bay and the SE breeze is going to hurt melt me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wes.. you were posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Shut down the forum, Wes about to cause tears. all he has to say is look what the models are really showing and forget weenie interpretations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 all he has to say is look what the models are really showing and forget weenie interpretations Nowcasting time. You have a good wv loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 dont look at the rap I wasn't going to mention it. Hope like heck it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.