gymengineer Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 is it cold? We could use it for that Lol.. Just something hilarious about the thought of you, Ji, and Dave forming Leesburg Weather Gang. It would be entertaining as anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the NAM is garbage.,...I know it offends some of the govt guys when people say this and granted, I am not a met and only use it for limited purposes, but it sucks...it really does...it is rarely right about anything it definitely has poor consistency tho i think it shows some signals here and there and it's usually not awful within 24 hours for many events.. winter storm forecasts are not its best attribute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Lol.. Just something hilarious about the thought of you, Ji, and Dave forming Leesburg Weather Gang. It would be entertaining as anything. The street battles between them and CWG would be pretty awesome. I hear Wes fights dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Temps are fine. Worry about liquid. You'll still get more snow than me regardless. I can assure you that he is very worried about liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You can already see the moisture starting to split in NE Louisiana...big blob passing to our North...blob to our South then boom in th ocean North of us How's that for some hallucinations lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Bob Ryan says less than 50% for 1" at DCA now. I doubt I'd go for 50% or better odds of 1" at DCA until most of the area was in a WS warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can't remember if we are supposed to care or not, but I thought the 15Z SREFs looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I doubt I'd go for 50% or better odds of 1" at DCA until most of the area was in a WS warning. Yeah, this is the type of event where DCA could get .5" and I could get 1.5". But he seemed to be downgrading things.. tho honestly I'm not sure what he's been saying prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You can already see the moisture starting to split in NE Louisiana...big blob passing to our North...blob to our South then boom in th ocean North of us How's that for some hallucinations lol Crappy. Those are crappy hallucinations. You need better 'shrooms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 IT's nowcasting time fellas, feels like snow outside though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The street battles between them and CWG would be pretty awesome. I hear Wes fights dirty. You gotta hand it to Wes.. Somehow he manages to post on topic about weather during your once a year epic hissy throwdowns with Matt and Randy, as if nothing was happening on the board. That's the laser focus necessary to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 idk, first chance I had to look closer at the 12z Euro and I am not impressed with it for BWI at all these marginal events the last 2 (now 3rd) years have me more than a little fed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I love images like this. The little light green pickle shape is pretty close to winterwxluvr. lol Dual lows really stink. What the nam is showing is possible. I personally don't think it will shake out that way but if it did I wouldn't be shocked. What are you trying to say Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'll never forget Bob Ryan forcast a few flurries just a couple days before our 24" storm in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here comes the leading edge of the clouds. beautiful frosted mountain tops here at canaan temp is 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is wet and warm. .3-.4 inches area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 18Z suite has not been kind to the western suburbs of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 18Z suite has not been kind to the western suburbs of DC. Or to the temps to us South or East.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I doubt I'd go for 50% or better odds of 1" at DCA until most of the area was in a WS warning. I sure wouldn't go 50% for an inch at DCA. Even at 12Z the sounding look dicey. Look at 12Z tomorrow morning on the GFS. Note that the saturated layer only extends to where the temp is around minus 8 to 10. Even with a cold as ice surface temp, that's not a guaranteed snow sounding as there could be nucleation problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 From looking at the nowcast, the precipitation is both further north, heavier, and has moved a little faster than what the models have suggested. This would mean more QPF would fall before daytime has the chance to warm the air. If I were worried that the models are showing less snow and are warmer and are going to screw us over, I would calm down. They're wrong already. Now, we all need to just sit back, calm down, and wait for our 1"-3" in the western suburbs and 1" in the city. Because the time for models is over, and now the time for nowcast, radar, and observations has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DCA hit mid-40s today which was at least a few degrees warmer than guidance last night. 38/25 now isn't horrible but not sure how well we cool with clouds thickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Does anyone have a link to a site to find soundings for MRB or KOKV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DCA hit mid-40s today which was at least a few degrees warmer than guidance last night. 38/25 now isn't horrible but not sure how well we cool with clouds thickening. My Kestrel is down to 38 now, pretty clear here, should be able to radiate off a few more degrees before a bit of natural cooling. Hoping for some evap and dynamical, then wishcast cooling haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Does anyone have a link to a site to find soundings for MRB or KOKV? Twisterdata.com is pretty good for forecast soundings. Easy click to location. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My Kestrel is down to 38 now, pretty clear here, should be able to radiate off a few more degrees before a bit of natural cooling. Hoping for some evap and dynamical, then wishcast cooling haha. I'm certainly not banking on getting help once the event is underway. Hopefully dews don't climb too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DCA hit mid-40s today which was at least a few degrees warmer than guidance last night. 38/25 now isn't horrible but not sure how well we cool with clouds thickening. We had clear skies all darn day long here and the clouds rolled in exactly at 4:30 as the sun was starting to set. Absolute horrible timing. Our high was 37. 36 now and the local wxbug says the dp is 23F. Winchester reports 29F dp, so I don't know what is accurate. Hopefully, the dp is lower than 29 and we may get some help from evaporational cooling later on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 33.5 dp 26 unless you are using jyo...66 dp 66 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm certainly not banking on getting help once the event is underway. Hopefully dews don't climb too fast. is it me or am I correctly hallucinating a split in the precip on this loop between the northern section (snow) and southern rain d@mn 18z NAM has me sucked in I guess http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php I swear the snow looks headed for PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm certainly not banking on getting help once the event is underway. Hopefully dews don't climb too fast. True Ian, true. Dews are good thus far, 26.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The GFS look a little drier than 12Z to me? Through 0Z Sunday. Looks like .1 to .25 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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