Disc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Glad to see they are a little bullish this time. I usually find them fairly conservative in their forecasts. I take that back. Their snow map is more conservative than the wording in their WWA. Regardless, anything over an inch out of this storm is a win for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM Drier at 24 hours than the 12Z run... Good new is the 850 0 degree line is further south and east. Would not look at the NAM anymore. Doesnt look very dry to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Another view at the moisture being picked up...... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 18Z NAM is awful. LOL I wouldn't even bother looking at it. Just pretend it doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it's been active...just an early afternoon lull I mean we could talk about the 18z NAM which is hilariously snow-holing us and delaying the start time by 4 hours, but is at least colder... It splits the precip between the two areas of low pressure. That would be a major screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Mitchnick,,,,how does the 18 hr RAP look? some day you'll tell people you knew me, just wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It splits the precip between the two areas of low pressure. That would be a major screwjob. Not being a weenie, but looking at radar its really impressive and the southern low is stronger, so I'd favor the colder solution. The wv does show solid digging bringing in all the moisture. NAM is off its rocker I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Bob Ryan says less than 50% for 1" at DCA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's the cold sector that counts, not the warm sector. I don't care how hard it's raining in Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It splits the precip between the two areas of low pressure. That would be a major screwjob. saw that, but surface readings show the southern Low is much stronger and getting stronger Current Pressures http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur 3 hr changes http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur if you go back several hours from the current pressure map the deepening of the southern Low is even more impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's the cold sector that counts, not the warm sector. I don't care how hard it's raining in Alabama. +1 models showed the current precip accurately. That piece is going to dry out as the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's the cold sector that counts, not the warm sector. I don't care how hard it's raining in Alabama. Yeah and sometimes that stuff can moisture rob. Radar looks decent tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I love images like this. The little light green pickle shape is pretty close to winterwxluvr. lol Dual lows really stink. What the nam is showing is possible. I personally don't think it will shake out that way but if it did I wouldn't be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's the cold sector that counts, not the warm sector. I don't care how hard it's raining in Alabama. the weenie thinking is that the stronger southern system will curtail the warming caused by a stronger northern system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 saw that, but surface readings show the southern Low is much stronger and getting stronger Current Pressures http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur 3 hr changes http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur if you go back several hours from the current pressure map the deepening of the southern Low is even more impressive Read my post just above, saw that for sure. One of the things Bob talked about to help us out, good news for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the weenie thinking is that the stronger southern system will curtail the warming caused by a stronger northern system I've been waiting and waiting for a sign that the northern low wouldn't interact as much as the models show but even looking at the unisys stuff it doesn't really mean that the northern low won't be 1005-8ish and fook with the southern low. 18z nam could have been a blip....but it could be picking up on the interaction better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Moe Larry and Curley Dave has the Curley part nailed. I'll be happy if I were to get an inch of snow out of this storm. Too bad I won't be there to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah and sometimes that stuff can moisture rob. Radar looks decent tho. On the other hand storms with a decent looking CCB almost always over-perform. The CCB here looks about as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM shouldnt have been the first model I looked at today. I'm about to jump off a bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM shouldnt have been the first model I looked at today. I'm about to jump off a bridge. the NAM is for entertainment purposes only...nobody should take it seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I've been moaning about moisture robbing for days now....wouldn't shock me...radar time for me...models give me headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM shouldnt have been the first model I looked at today. I'm about to jump off a bridge. Yeah, it spooked the heck out of me. I am trying to pretend it can't be true but it looks like such a typical and obvious screwjob that it is impossible to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I've been moaning about moisture robbing for days now....wouldn't shock me...radar time for me...models give me headaches Yeah, but you always moan about that, even before a HECS dumping 2 inches of precip across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I've been moaning about moisture robbing for days now....wouldn't shock me...radar time for me...models give me headaches 40:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah, it spooked the heck out of me. I am trying to pretend it can't be true but it looks like such a typical and obvious screwjob that it is impossible to ignore. meh... the 00z will resolve all of this.. were fine.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 meh... the 00z will resolve all of this.. were fine.. lol Reality will resolve it all, models are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Glad to see they are a little bullish this time. I usually find them fairly conservative in their forecasts. I feel pretty good about this storm today I guess it's the fact the temp is about 6 degrees below what guidance had showed for a high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the NAM is garbage.,...I know it offends some of the govt guys when people say this and granted, I am not a met and only use it for limited purposes, but it sucks...it really does...it is rarely right about anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the NAM is garbage.,...I know it offends some of the govt guys when people say this and granted, I am not a met and only use it for limited purposes, but it sucks...it really does...it is rarely right about anything is it cold? We could use it for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 is it cold? We could use it for that Temps are fine. Worry about liquid. You'll still get more snow than me regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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