Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LWX newest snow map and local P&Cs have the city in less than 1" of snow I think that is slightly too conservative based on 12z GFS/EURO....I'd ignore the NAM...there is something wrong with it more than its usual suckiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I would lean yes with some mixing...if euro is right DT Has a good map...at 12z the 850 0 line is 100 miles south of DChttp://www.facebook....&type=1 Nice. I may hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 General question- Do we want a less amped solution with a stronger shortwave...or vice versa? Any thoughts on that? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 wundermap shows SE winds at 24hrs and orhwxman confirms...that is troublesome...the column is fine in terms of temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I would lean yes with some mixing...if euro is right DT Has a good map...at 12z the 850 0 line is 100 miles south of DC http://www.facebook....&type=1 ya don't say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ya don't say.... It's actually a very reasonable map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's actually a very reasonable map Yeah it's not bad. He does generally just reproduce the Euro tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah it's not bad. He does generally just reproduce the Euro tho. That was the joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That was the joke... Yeah Katie is slow. Maybe brain cells transferred to the baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 here is the 12z panel when we are most likely to be ripping snow... winds are SE, but good thing is they are very light...5mph or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. It's still warmer than guidance in DC by a bit tho. Probably doesn't matter much one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 here is the 12z panel when we are most likely to be ripping snow... winds are SE, but good thing is they are very light...5mph or so.... Yeah I wouldn't worry too much about the warmth transport in this one. We were discussing that last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah I wouldn't worry too much about the warmth transport in this one. We were discussing that last night. well..if the euro is correct with temps, 850 temps are like -3 so if we are ripping, we should be able to overcome that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. That's my cold air, you can't have it. Yes, cloud cover has really held us down today and the sun is just beginning to filter through. I'm currently sitting at 39 and I don't think I'll be gaining much more. Since the lower atmosphere temperatures are a concern, I think this cooler than expected day may help us out some tonight in favor of some frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. the 4am start time is very helpful imo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 well..if the euro is correct with temps, 850 temps are like -3 so if we are ripping, we should be able to overcome that 75% chance of 1" and 50% 2"+ IMBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 75% chance of 1" and 50% 2"+ IMBY? sounds right to me...I'm not worried about the surface for some reason...moderate snow at 5am at 33-34 degrees in late december will accumulate easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 pretty hilarious that in 2010-11 we were punting these events for being too small.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I can slant stick an inch or so it's rough sledding around here. literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 WWA expanded a county east. I'm technically still not included since the line the dividing northern and southern BalCo zones is a mile or two away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LWS disco sounds like they're itching to expand the advisories Must've been waiting on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 sounds right to me...I'm not worried about the surface for some reason...moderate snow at 5am at 33-34 degrees in late december will accumulate easily Yeah.. Haven't seen any models today but it sounds like things are going the right way for us generally. If we do start early we should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 pretty hilarious that in 2010-11 we were punting these events for being too small.... What a sad two years it has been.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 WWA's expanded to MOCO and loudoun for 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. it's not a bad looking system (some solid radar returns heading towards kentucky). with marginal temps we can't do much better than the start time we're going to have. i could see this as overperforming for some people, at least on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Could this become one of those storms where we get to warning criteria snow by surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Could this become one of those storms where we get to warning criteria snow by surprise? Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm not sure if the strategy is to stay up or get some sleep and set an alarm for 4am...I'll probably do the latter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the 4am start time is very helpful imo.... Yea, no kidding. That was my biggest takeaway from reading the hpc discussion about precip hitting the nc mountains about 4 hours before forecast or something like that. I guess if we're gonna squeeze this one we can add the early start in the + column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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