Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here comes the leading edge of the clouds. beautiful frosted mountain tops here at canaan temp is 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is wet and warm. .3-.4 inches area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 18Z suite has not been kind to the western suburbs of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 18Z suite has not been kind to the western suburbs of DC. Or to the temps to us South or East.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I doubt I'd go for 50% or better odds of 1" at DCA until most of the area was in a WS warning. I sure wouldn't go 50% for an inch at DCA. Even at 12Z the sounding look dicey. Look at 12Z tomorrow morning on the GFS. Note that the saturated layer only extends to where the temp is around minus 8 to 10. Even with a cold as ice surface temp, that's not a guaranteed snow sounding as there could be nucleation problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 From looking at the nowcast, the precipitation is both further north, heavier, and has moved a little faster than what the models have suggested. This would mean more QPF would fall before daytime has the chance to warm the air. If I were worried that the models are showing less snow and are warmer and are going to screw us over, I would calm down. They're wrong already. Now, we all need to just sit back, calm down, and wait for our 1"-3" in the western suburbs and 1" in the city. Because the time for models is over, and now the time for nowcast, radar, and observations has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DCA hit mid-40s today which was at least a few degrees warmer than guidance last night. 38/25 now isn't horrible but not sure how well we cool with clouds thickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Does anyone have a link to a site to find soundings for MRB or KOKV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DCA hit mid-40s today which was at least a few degrees warmer than guidance last night. 38/25 now isn't horrible but not sure how well we cool with clouds thickening. My Kestrel is down to 38 now, pretty clear here, should be able to radiate off a few more degrees before a bit of natural cooling. Hoping for some evap and dynamical, then wishcast cooling haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Does anyone have a link to a site to find soundings for MRB or KOKV? Twisterdata.com is pretty good for forecast soundings. Easy click to location. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My Kestrel is down to 38 now, pretty clear here, should be able to radiate off a few more degrees before a bit of natural cooling. Hoping for some evap and dynamical, then wishcast cooling haha. I'm certainly not banking on getting help once the event is underway. Hopefully dews don't climb too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DCA hit mid-40s today which was at least a few degrees warmer than guidance last night. 38/25 now isn't horrible but not sure how well we cool with clouds thickening. We had clear skies all darn day long here and the clouds rolled in exactly at 4:30 as the sun was starting to set. Absolute horrible timing. Our high was 37. 36 now and the local wxbug says the dp is 23F. Winchester reports 29F dp, so I don't know what is accurate. Hopefully, the dp is lower than 29 and we may get some help from evaporational cooling later on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 33.5 dp 26 unless you are using jyo...66 dp 66 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm certainly not banking on getting help once the event is underway. Hopefully dews don't climb too fast. is it me or am I correctly hallucinating a split in the precip on this loop between the northern section (snow) and southern rain d@mn 18z NAM has me sucked in I guess http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php I swear the snow looks headed for PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm certainly not banking on getting help once the event is underway. Hopefully dews don't climb too fast. True Ian, true. Dews are good thus far, 26.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The GFS look a little drier than 12Z to me? Through 0Z Sunday. Looks like .1 to .25 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The GFS look a little drier than 12Z to me? Through 0Z Sunday. Looks like .1 to .25 area wide. West of DC yes towards you, .35 for Baltimore folks Phin and co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The GFS look a little drier than 12Z to me? Through 0Z Sunday. Looks like .1 to .25 area wide. No doubt the 18Z suite was drier for Leesburg west. I am sure now that there will be both a precip screw and a temp screw. The area south of 40N that gets decent snow will be rather small, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Holy crap my newly gifted Kestrel via easternuswx worth 100 dollars just plummeted the temp to 35 here. Woah. Probably wrong, except they're not. Olympics baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 We had clear skies all darn day long here and the clouds rolled in exactly at 4:30 as the sun was starting to set. Absolute horrible timing. Our high was 37. 36 now and the local wxbug says the dp is 23F. Winchester reports 29F dp, so I don't know what is accurate. Hopefully, the dp is lower than 29 and we may get some help from evaporational cooling later on tonight. I doubt your worry is p-type. It's the p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No doubt the 18Z suite was drier for Leesburg west. I am sure now that there will be both a precip screw and a temp screw. The area south of 40N that gets decent snow will be rather small, I think. the NAM was more pronounced with its precip hole probably because GFS is a global model, which suggests the GFS is seeing the same thing the NAM is seeing but w/o the NAM's resolution time to review the 84 hr NAM I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Holy crap my newly gifted Kestrel via easternuswx worth 100 dollars just plummeted the temp to 35 here. Woah. Probably wrong, except they're not. Olympics baby. It sounds like you are advertising the product "But order now and get TWO!!!" Anyway, even if we lose a few more degrees it is going to be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Holy crap my newly gifted Kestrel via easternuswx worth 100 dollars just plummeted the temp to 35 here. Woah. Probably wrong, except they're not. Olympics baby. yeah, but the warmer air has got to go somewhere, and it is up you're only getting an inversion a few hundred meters above you and that air will have to be cooled too by the precip you'll see in in the soundings at iad when they come out around 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the NAM was more pronounced with its precip hole probably because GFS is a global model, which suggests the GFS is seeing the same thing the NAM is seeing but w/o the NAM's resolution time to review the 84 hr NAM I guess Or the NAM sucks, but the GFS dies out the so-called primary that goes up into W PA earlier than the NAM, so the moisture transport is completed quicker on the model, therefore the further SW cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 yeah, but the warmer air has got to go somewhere, and it is up you're only getting an inversion a few hundred meters above you you'll see in in the soundings at iad when they come out around 9pm Maybe so, but I'll take my chances if the temp keeps falling, better than going for it at 35. My suburb here seems to randomly be chillier. Thinking about driving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Or the NAM sucks, but the GFS dies out the so-called primary that goes up into W PA earlier than the NAM, so the moisture transport is completed quicker on the model, therefore the further SW cutoff. I guess I ain't feelin' this one bro hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 there should be no concern with surface temps...they are fine..even DCA is 38/25 last hour I'd be a lot more concerned about the precip Matt, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Twisterdata.com is pretty good for forecast soundings. Easy click to location. I Great site, thank you. Here is a 18z GFS sounding +15 hr. Everything looks good temp wise, but what about the rel humidities? At 500 - 700 mb the air is close to saturated, but at 850 it is not. As someone trying to learn, could someone weigh in with this sounding wrt to ideal humidities for snow at these layers? GFS Text Sounding | 09 UTC Sat 29 Dec 2012 | Latitude: 39.0000 | Longitude: -78.0000 PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 987.5 210 -0.4 -1.0 95 3.6 141 4 -0.7 0.1 273.7 283.6 274.3 975.0 312 -0.5 -1.5 93 3.5 150 8 -0.9 0.0 274.6 284.3 275.2 950.0 519 -1.1 -2.4 91 3.4 162 16 -1.6 -0.6 276.0 285.5 276.6 925.0 732 -1.9 -3.1 92 3.3 171 20 -2.4 -1.4 277.3 286.6 277.9 900.0 949 -2.9 -4.2 91 3.1 180 23 -3.4 -2.4 278.4 287.3 279.0 850.0 1402 -3.1 -5.5 84 3.0 193 31 -4.0 -2.7 282.8 291.5 283.3 800.0 1881 -3.6 -5.2 89 3.3 191 30 -4.2 -3.1 287.2 296.8 287.8 750.0 2392 -3.6 -4.3 95 3.7 197 32 -3.9 -3.0 292.6 303.7 293.2 700.0 2937 -4.0 -4.3 98 4.0 210 38 -4.2 -3.4 297.9 310.1 298.7 650.0 3520 -5.8 -5.9 99 3.8 222 43 -5.8 -5.1 302.4 314.2 303.1 600.0 4145 -8.5 -8.7 99 3.3 230 46 -8.6 -8.0 306.1 316.7 306.7 550.0 4815 -12.0 -12.3 98 2.7 233 51 -12.2 -11.6 309.7 318.5 310.2 500.0 5540 -15.9 -16.3 97 2.1 235 58 -16.1 -15.6 313.5 320.7 313.9 450.0 6326 -20.8 -21.0 99 1.6 238 67 -20.9 -20.6 316.9 322.4 317.2 400.0 7185 -27.8 -28.3 96 0.9 239 78 -28.0 -27.7 318.6 322.0 318.8 350.0 8128 -35.9 -38.7 76 0.4 237 86 -36.4 -35.9 320.1 321.5 320.1 300.0 9178 -44.8 -55.8 28 0.1 238 96 -45.6 -44.8 321.9 322.2 321.9 250.0 10374 -52.3 -65.4 19 0.0 242 112 -52.9 -52.3 328.0 328.1 328.0 200.0 11801 -56.1 -70.4 15 0.0 245 119 -56.7 -56.1 343.5 343.6 343.5 150.0 13619 -59.1 -72.1 17 0.0 259 99 -59.7 -59.1 367.8 367.8 367.8 100.0 16157 -60.6 -80.0 6 0.0 260 48 -61.3 -60.6 410.0 410.0 410 well, that did not work. let me figure a way to post this info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Great site, thank you. Here is a 18z GFS sounding +15 hr. Everything looks good temp wise, but what about the rel humidities? At 500 - 700 mb the air is close to saturated, but at 850 it is not. As someone trying to learn, could someone weigh in with this sounding wrt to ideal humidities for snow at these layers? GFS Text Sounding | 09 UTC Sat 29 Dec 2012 | Latitude: 39.0000 | Longitude: -78.0000 PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 987.5 210 -0.4 -1.0 95 3.6 141 4 -0.7 0.1 273.7 283.6 274.3 975.0 312 -0.5 -1.5 93 3.5 150 8 -0.9 0.0 274.6 284.3 275.2 950.0 519 -1.1 -2.4 91 3.4 162 16 -1.6 -0.6 276.0 285.5 276.6 925.0 732 -1.9 -3.1 92 3.3 171 20 -2.4 -1.4 277.3 286.6 277.9 900.0 949 -2.9 -4.2 91 3.1 180 23 -3.4 -2.4 278.4 287.3 279.0 850.0 1402 -3.1 -5.5 84 3.0 193 31 -4.0 -2.7 282.8 291.5 283.3 800.0 1881 -3.6 -5.2 89 3.3 191 30 -4.2 -3.1 287.2 296.8 287.8 750.0 2392 -3.6 -4.3 95 3.7 197 32 -3.9 -3.0 292.6 303.7 293.2 700.0 2937 -4.0 -4.3 98 4.0 210 38 -4.2 -3.4 297.9 310.1 298.7 650.0 3520 -5.8 -5.9 99 3.8 222 43 -5.8 -5.1 302.4 314.2 303.1 600.0 4145 -8.5 -8.7 99 3.3 230 46 -8.6 -8.0 306.1 316.7 306.7 550.0 4815 -12.0 -12.3 98 2.7 233 51 -12.2 -11.6 309.7 318.5 310.2 500.0 5540 -15.9 -16.3 97 2.1 235 58 -16.1 -15.6 313.5 320.7 313.9 450.0 6326 -20.8 -21.0 99 1.6 238 67 -20.9 -20.6 316.9 322.4 317.2 400.0 7185 -27.8 -28.3 96 0.9 239 78 -28.0 -27.7 318.6 322.0 318.8 350.0 8128 -35.9 -38.7 76 0.4 237 86 -36.4 -35.9 320.1 321.5 320.1 300.0 9178 -44.8 -55.8 28 0.1 238 96 -45.6 -44.8 321.9 322.2 321.9 250.0 10374 -52.3 -65.4 19 0.0 242 112 -52.9 -52.3 328.0 328.1 328.0 200.0 11801 -56.1 -70.4 15 0.0 245 119 -56.7 -56.1 343.5 343.6 343.5 150.0 13619 -59.1 -72.1 17 0.0 259 99 -59.7 -59.1 367.8 367.8 367.8 100.0 16157 -60.6 -80.0 6 0.0 260 48 -61.3 -60.6 410.0 410.0 410 now that made me laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Weatherbug dropped to 33.2 with a 27 dp while my WS dropped all the way from 39 to 32.5 in a matter of 2 hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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