Eskimo Joe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LWS disco sounds like they're itching to expand the advisories Seems like it to me as well: THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA FROM BALTIMORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE RESOLVED...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE DID NOT WANT TO LOCK IN WITH AN ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A SECOND/THIRD PERIOD EVENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That is always a dangerous assumption anywhere in the DC area. I'm cautiously optimistic I get an inch or inch and a half here. I am not saying I am getting another 4 inches. But whatever I get should simply be snow, or mostly snow and I will take it and enjoy whatever it is. But Christmas eve truly was a surprise by todays standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 has all the earmarks of a 40N system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Location? Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Location? Westminster. He'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think what ddw said is probably the best case scenario for all, namely, an early start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Westminster OK, that makes sense then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 FWIW, it's still in the mid 30's here with some locations still in the low 30's and upper 20's and we were forecasted to be close to 45 around 1pm. Thick cloud cover rolled in this morning keeping the temps down across SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html impressive isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 FWIW, it's still in the mid 30's here with some locations still in the low 30's and upper 20's and we were forecasted to be close to 45 around 1pm. Thick cloud cover rolled in this morning keeping the temps down across SWVA. Was just about to comment on that hopefully that has some kind of meaning for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html Post more discussion besides an emoticon. Also, those line plots you've posted look informative, but there's no key as to say what the each line is, so it looks like gibberish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's our forecast, for those interested: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/minor-snow-event-likely-for-dc-area-saturday-morning-coating-to-a-couple-inches-possible/2012/12/28/92e227b0-5100-11e2-950a-7863a013264b_blog.html - Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Post more discussion besides an emoticon. Also, those line plots you've posted look informative, but there's no key as to say what the each line is, so it looks like gibberish. Sorry, are you not seeing a key on the right of the graphic? I can see it on my screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not a good sign. Bumped the graph back 24 hours to be able to see Temp verification based on NAM and GFS. We were higher then both models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 933 AM EST FRIDAY... ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW SUN ANGLE...LIMITED SURFACE MIXING WITHIN A STEEP INVERSION DUE TO STRONG OVERNIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING...AND LIMITED INSOLATION MAY RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED. SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE A SNOW/SLEET PACK EXISTS MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL TN...AT LEAST 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF MANY MODEL PROJECTIONS...WHICH IS TYPICAL. EVEN THOUGH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL LIKELY ERODE AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY DRY LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE...ARRIVAL OF GROUND- BASED PRECIPITATION MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO NWRN NC MOUNTAINS A BIT EARLIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 400-600 PM TIMEFRAME. BASED ON THE ABOVE...WILL BE MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS INTO/THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO REFLECT A FLATTER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION CANOPY. FINALLY...09Z SREF...06Z NAM...AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST SOUNDINGS IMPLY SLIGHTLY COLDER THERMAL PROFILES THAN 00Z RUNS...ESPECIALLY IN BLUEFIELD AREA...AND AREAS NORTHEAST OF ROANOKE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY WARRANT EXTENSION OF EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO MERCER COUNTY WV...AND FROM ROANOKE COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY VA. WILL MONITOR INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE AND COORDINATE WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DETERMINATION IN THIS REGARD. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON Would be nice to have a WWA for the area per Blacksburg's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 has all the earmarks of a 40N system Agree...the higher qpf and rates are going to be over eastern PA, NJ, and up into SNE as the coastal gets cranking. Best chance of decent accums in MD is in northeast part of the state IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lol events only 24 hrs away and yet models are still kinda iffy, man this is gonna be a tough one to nail down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Was just about to comment on that hopefully that has some kind of meaning for tonight For what it's worth Raleigh is a lot colder than forecast High today is 48 and is currently 39. and overcast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I can slant stick an inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I can slant stick an inch or so How are temps doing down there? It's weird, I'm getting 35.6 weatherbug from down the street but my WS is giving me 38.5. Forecast calls for a high of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro? oops...forgot...it is the coldest model....generally 0.25-0.30"....it gives you a little less for some reason but I wouldnt read anything into that start at 4am sw burbs to 6am baltimore....generally a 7-8 hour event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro? By far the coldest model run of the 12z suite. 0c 850 line runs down to RIC and off to the middle VA neck @24. The 12z GFS showed the same line between CHO and DCA at that timestamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 oops...forgot...it is the coldest model....generally 0.25-0.30"....it gives you a little less for some reason but I wouldnt read anything into that All snow for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro is straight up cold. Nice, 2-4" for Bmore, 1-3 DCA verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 oops...forgot...it is the coldest model....generally 0.25-0.30"....it gives you a little less for some reason but I wouldnt read anything into that Euro precip distribution is sometimes a little weird close in it seems. Good stuff on the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 All snow for DC? I would lean yes with some mixing...if euro is right DT Has a good map...at 12z the 850 0 line is 100 miles south of DC http://www.facebook....&type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LWX newest snow map and local P&Cs have the city in less than 1" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro precip distribution is sometimes a little weird close in it seems. Good stuff on the temps. I've liked 3" for you for 2 days now...no reason to change that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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