Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's OK everyone, GB has DC right on the 4" cusp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 His pops has taught him well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM gives 2-3 hours of mod snow before setting up a rain snow line along 95, eventfully progresses to about I 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS wet and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm getting bitter. Enjoy your rain. you too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 you too Too warm. What's the modeled start time for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The die is cast with this one unless there is major model failure....Solid moderate snow event for MRB/HGR/NW Bal burbs (3-4")...more dicey for JYO/FDK (2-3")....Snow with some mixing for IAD/Germantown/Columbia....(Over/Under 1.75" there)....1-2" for Rockville, BWI,, 0.5 - 1.5 for PG/ALEX/DC Proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If this comes in early and gets heavy for all of us, since many will start as snow, we could be rescued. What's that event a few years back where we were supposed to get an ice event and ended up with a few hours of thumping rates and 5-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I'll end up on the snow/rain border, which is fine. I'll take whatever I'll get. I have a WWA for 2-4 inches right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Too warm. What's the modeled start time for this? 5-6am...I think you coulg get 1" before mixing issues....If you get a real thump, then maybe 1-2"....we'll all start or quickly go to snow I "think"....and then mix/changeover from southeast to NW...there may be some moderate to heavy bands so maybe people stay snow longer than models indicate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I'll end up on the snow/rain border, which is fine. I'll take whatever I'll get. I have a WWA for 2-4 inches right now that seems reasonable to me for Hunt Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Good analysis zwyts. I pretty much agree on all points and have nothing to add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If this comes in early and gets heavy for all of us, since many will start as snow, we could be rescued. What's that event a few years back where we were supposed to get an ice event and ended up with a few hours of thumping rates and 5-10"? feb 2007 yes..these events are unpredictable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I'll end up on the snow/rain border, which is fine. I'll take whatever I'll get. I have a WWA for 2-4 inches right now You're probably sitting pretty up there, couple inches isn't a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Good analysis zwyts. I pretty much agree on all points and have nothing to add. I dont know what precip type is with a warm column from 925mb down.....MN Transplant seemed to suggest that if we are freezing or below from 950 and up then with steady precip we are snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You're probably sitting pretty up there, couple inches isn't a stretch Awesome. Thanks to you and Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Bob, I like you wag but for dc would go towards and inch or less unless the surface temps tonight end up being a little colder and the precip comes in a little faster, then I think Dc could get an inch or 2. Out west My guess is 2-3 inches if measured on a snowboard. If on grass, then maybe a little more. I think being closer to the bay, my chances of seeing much snow is lower than even DCAs. Well, my wag is basically a call based on a lot of stuff I learned from you so it's nice to see that you agree a bit. I don't have a photo memory like some but these last 3 storms have been awful subtle. Seemingly small and harmless features figuring out how to take away our hopes and dreams. Well, at least for those near the cities and s-e. I'm thinking we need to open a new subforum for everyone n & w of a line from germantown and dulles. Is this totally normal for us? I suppose it is but I don't remember 3 very marginal events in a row playing out so tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I dont know what precip type is with a warm column from 925mb down.....MN Transplant seemed to suggest that if we are freezing or below from 950 and up then with steady precip we are snow The 07 storm not to be confused with VD had dynamic cooling with the heavy rates that fell, there is moisture to tap tomorrow that could do the same for us. We'd then go to rain/drizzle like 07 as the precip at a certain point isn't heavy enough to keep the column cooled. The early start time certainly helps, and yes I think we'll all go to snow almost immediately for a bit even near you through evap cooling of the column. The GFS tries to kill the primary a bit earlier this run, that could help us if it could do it again in future runs. Also, yes it would be snow, MN is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LWS disco sounds like they're itching to expand the advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LWS disco sounds like they're itching to expand the advisories GFS sounding are not nearly as bad as I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS sounding are not nearly as bad as I thought Was waiting for you to say that, would still imply 2-3" N of BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Was waiting for you to say that, would still imply 2-3" N of BWI. I am very low confidence on this one...more so than any recent storm I can think of....much easier to forecast when there is a warm nose higher up and/or an inversion layer above 850mb.........there are so many questionable factors for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I am very low confidence on this one...more so than any recent storm I can think of....much easier to forecast when there is a warm nose higher up and/or an inversion layer above 850mb.........there are so many questionable factors for this one GFS sounding a surprise huh? I was surprised. The panels just didn't look healthy. Like dd said, the quicker we can get rid of the lp to the west the better off we are. That thing is like a canker sore for us. I don't remember where I said it before but this entire thing is a take what you can get type of storm. Questionable factors typically mean bad things for us but there are plenty of past examples where things worked out all in favor. It really stinks that we can't get some sort of cold air drain working until after it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS sounding are not nearly as bad as I thought 18z is bad, but the precip is basically done by then. 15z is so borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since first learning of this storm I have not had a single worry over precip type. I guess after the surprising 4 incher on Christmas eve. I feel like this one is in the bag already. Should be all snow and I can max out on ratios too. NWS has me down for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since first learning of this storm I have not had a single worry over precip type. I guess after the surprising 4 incher on Christmas eve. I feel like this one is in the bag already. Should be all snow and I can max out on ratios too. NWS has me down for 2-4". Location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since first learning of this storm I have not had a single worry over precip type. I guess after the surprising 4 incher on Christmas eve. I feel like this one is in the bag already. Should be all snow and I can max out on ratios too. NWS has me down for 2-4". That is always a dangerous assumption anywhere in the DC area. I'm cautiously optimistic I get an inch or inch and a half here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z is bad, but the precip is basically done by then. 15z is so borderline. we have seen "this" storm so many times..DCA is snow or -SN or ra/sn for the duration and the temp is 35.6 and drops to 33.8 at the height...and you get a sloppy inch if sun angle is ok which it is....and then it ends and it gets to 39.1 in a few hours and and there are some slushy areas on the grass and deck...DCA measures 0.6"....if it really is a 6-7 hour event, we could see some 1/2 mi snow in between panels which could overcome some of this nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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