TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM rolling in. Sounding above 950mb is good. Surface is warm and the dewpoints are very high, which is disconcerting. At this point I don't care. Snow is coming, Somehow 0 will accumulate at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This has been trending drier with each run. Not near as impressive as the other 2 storms this week. Total precip for event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM rolling in. Sounding above 950mb is good. Surface is warm and the dewpoints are very high, which is disconcerting. Looks a bit deeper early. We will see if it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 at least it is way wetter than 6z....just a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 nam is much wetter, .3-.4 inches area wide through 32 and still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yes. NAM is much juicier this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Trend towards an optimal vort pass isn't really there. That's prob #1. The weak low to our west is the dagger. I'm not giving up or saying it's a done deal but without improvements in those 2 departments we are going to suffer temp problems. Surface flow is easterly no matter which way you shake it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM total precip for event: 2-3 inches I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Winter weather.....drive ya nuts if you let it...it just needs to be tomorrow already and doing what it's gonna do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 you think we are going to see greater than 10:1 ratios? lol I think we end up with around .5 total QPF with 7:1 ratios. This is purely based on the the observations during the last two events. If the worst case scenario is .25 QPF with crappy surface temps.... and this over performs like the others two did, then the .5 with a 7:1 isn't out of the realm of possibilities for a Over Performance scenario. The new NAM seems to support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think everyone in the 95 corridor should be bullish for mood flakes but pretty bearish for accums at this time. You can wishcast all you want about being wetter and slightly colder but having a vort pass nearly over head or to the west combined with an the surface low to the west will do absolutely nothing to help the argument that the models "are under doing the cold air". Edit: my wag is 0-2" 95 corridor and maybe 3 out in leesburg / winchester but even there won't have easy stickage the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The 12Z NAM is the best run in days for this thing to my weenie eyes. If you weren't worried about temps before not sure why this run would cause new concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The 12Z NAM is the best run in days for this thing to my weenie eyes. If you weren't worried about temps before no sure why this run would cause new concerns. Maybe I'm too bearish but if we're going to have a borderline airmass as it is we really need a N-NE surface flow to have upside potential. That stupid low out west and closed 850 contour pretty much assures us of an e-se surface flow. I hope I'm wrong but I can't find the weenie glasses this AM. I know most on here know this so it's a posting the obvious but this clip helps visualize what I'm talking about. The large closed contour prohibits any cold air drain or CAD. Look at the flow on the western side of the contour. THAT is is we really need to get a "good" accum snow near the cities. Get rid of the stupid low out west and the contour is closed S & E of us. Voila, N winds and plenty of help. Is it going to work out that way? Nothing showing it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Maybe I'm too bearish but if we're going to have a borderline airmass as it is we really need a N-NE surface flow to have upside potential. That stupid low out west and closed 850 contour pretty much assures us of an e-se surface flow. I hope I'm wrong but I can't find the weenie glasses this AM. My weenie glass says the last two times it snowed here it was progged to be mostly rain due to the "borderline air mass." Is this setup remarkably different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think everyone in the 95 corridor should be bullish for mood flakes but pretty bearish for accums at this time. You can wishcast all you want about being wetter and slightly colder but having a vort pass nearly over head or to the west combined with an the surface low to the west will do absolutely nothing to help the argument that the models "are under doing the cold air". Edit: my wag is 0-2" 95 corridor and maybe 3 out in leesburg / winchester but even there won't have easy stickage the whole time. My forecast NAM temps don't go above freezing until after the precip ends. And snow sticks to snow pretty well. Give us the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My forecast NAM temps don't go above freezing until after the precip ends. And snow sticks to snow pretty well. Give us the moisture. Yea but your climate is closer to Quebec's and ours is more like Atlanta. Enjoy your flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My weenie glass says the last two times it snowed here it was progged to be mostly rain due to the "borderline air mass." Is this setup remarkably different? No high to the north might be a problem. Not as much for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My weenie glass says the last two times it snowed here it was progged to be mostly rain due to the "borderline air mass." Is this setup remarkably different? IMO the set up is a little better with a strengthening Surface Low passing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yea but your climate is closer to Quebec's and ours is more like Atlanta. Enjoy your flakes. . It's going to work for everybody this time. We will merge the wettest model with the coldest and base all forecasts on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 850 temps are not as cold as last night's 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 looks okay for the western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No high to the north might be a problem. Not as much for you That's the sketchy part. We relied on things "hanging on longer" the last 2 events but there was reason to believe that. As I see it, the argument is "hanging on shorter". I guess we can rely on rates, evap, good column at onset and stuff like that but if things start falling apart in your back yard during the event pretty much nothing is going to help you switch back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 . It's going to work for everybody this time. We will merge the wettest model with the coldest and base all forecasts on that. Maybe I need a another cup of coffee. I seem unusually bearish this morning. Euro's gonna save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Maybe I need a another cup of coffee. I seem unusually bearish this morning. Euro's gonna save us! how much is Wes paying you, scab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's the sketchy part. We relied on things "hanging on longer" the last 2 events but there was reason to believe that. As I see it, the argument is "hanging on shorter". I guess we can rely on rates, evap, good column at onset and stuff like that but if things start falling apart in your back yard during the event pretty much nothing is going to help you switch back. Boxer day vort just comes undone, literally, which allows our vort to swing NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The HPC Experimental Suite seems similarly bearish... Accumulations less than 1" for the immediate DC area, and about a 30% chance of that... When does the next update come out? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 don't fret folks, 84 hr NAM says we do all this again next week http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think everyone in the 95 corridor should be bullish for mood flakes but pretty bearish for accums at this time. You can wishcast all you want about being wetter and slightly colder but having a vort pass nearly over head or to the west combined with an the surface low to the west will do absolutely nothing to help the argument that the models "are under doing the cold air". Edit: my wag is 0-2" 95 corridor and maybe 3 out in leesburg / winchester but even there won't have easy stickage the whole time. Bob, I like you wag but for dc would go towards and inch or less unless the surface temps tonight end up being a little colder and the precip comes in a little faster, then I think Dc could get an inch or 2. Out west My guess is 2-3 inches if measured on a snowboard. If on grass, then maybe a little more. I think being closer to the bay, my chances of seeing much snow is lower than even DCAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The 12Z NAM is the best run in days for this thing to my weenie eyes. If you weren't worried about temps before not sure why this run would cause new concerns. You live 70 miles northeast of DC with some elevation. You are always bullish before, during and after the storm because you always do better than most. I think the NAM looks good for YOU too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RAP 14Z run at 18 hrs (I know, I know) but... surface not so bad as the 850 line is starting to collapse south http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ruc/14/ruc_namer_018_precip_p01.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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