nflwxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 General question- Do we want a less amped solution with a stronger shortwave...or vice versa? Any thoughts on that? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:10 PM, zwyts said: I would lean yes with some mixing...if euro is right DT Has a good map...at 12z the 850 0 line is 100 miles south of DC http://www.facebook....&type=1 ya don't say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:23 PM, Scuddz said: ya don't say.... It's actually a very reasonable map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:27 PM, mapgirl said: It's actually a very reasonable map Yeah it's not bad. He does generally just reproduce the Euro tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:27 PM, Ian said: Yeah it's not bad. He does generally just reproduce the Euro tho. That was the joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:28 PM, Scuddz said: That was the joke... Yeah Katie is slow. Maybe brain cells transferred to the baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:30 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. It's still warmer than guidance in DC by a bit tho. Probably doesn't matter much one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:31 PM, zwyts said: here is the 12z panel when we are most likely to be ripping snow... winds are SE, but good thing is they are very light...5mph or so.... Yeah I wouldn't worry too much about the warmth transport in this one. We were discussing that last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:30 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. That's my cold air, you can't have it. Yes, cloud cover has really held us down today and the sun is just beginning to filter through. I'm currently sitting at 39 and I don't think I'll be gaining much more. Since the lower atmosphere temperatures are a concern, I think this cooler than expected day may help us out some tonight in favor of some frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:34 PM, zwyts said: well..if the euro is correct with temps, 850 temps are like -3 so if we are ripping, we should be able to overcome that 75% chance of 1" and 50% 2"+ IMBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 5:53 PM, Ian said: I think I can slant stick an inch or so it's rough sledding around here. literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 WWA expanded a county east. I'm technically still not included since the line the dividing northern and southern BalCo zones is a mile or two away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 4:00 PM, Scuddz said: LWS disco sounds like they're itching to expand the advisories Must've been waiting on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:38 PM, zwyts said: sounds right to me...I'm not worried about the surface for some reason...moderate snow at 5am at 33-34 degrees in late december will accumulate easily Yeah.. Haven't seen any models today but it sounds like things are going the right way for us generally. If we do start early we should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:40 PM, zwyts said: pretty hilarious that in 2010-11 we were punting these events for being too small.... What a sad two years it has been.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:30 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Model time is over. Time for surface obs, water vapor, etc. One key note for me right now is that back toward Roanoke is is still quite cold, that is the air that will be getting dragged along with this system as it moves to our south. Cloud cover overtook DC at a favorable time instead of waiting until 5/6pm to cloud up. it's not a bad looking system (some solid radar returns heading towards kentucky). with marginal temps we can't do much better than the start time we're going to have. i could see this as overperforming for some people, at least on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Could this become one of those storms where we get to warning criteria snow by surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:50 PM, Wx Weenie said: Could this become one of those storms where we get to warning criteria snow by surprise? Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 6:35 PM, zwyts said: the 4am start time is very helpful imo.... Yea, no kidding. That was my biggest takeaway from reading the hpc discussion about precip hitting the nc mountains about 4 hours before forecast or something like that. I guess if we're gonna squeeze this one we can add the early start in the + column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 37 with a dp of 20. Cloudy. Snow depth of 3.5" Things looking real good here, and now better for the metro areas. Hope we all do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My call of trending snowier looks good overall. Having less model runs in your head is a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 At 2pm my temp is 37 and dp is 27 if we get the moisture I feel good a good portion is snow....heck of a week if so....heck of one even if it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 7:03 PM, zwyts said: Mitchnick,,,,how does the 18 hr RAP look? he just texted...he said RAPTASTIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Jay Hatem weather going 2-3 Loudoun 1 downtown 1-2 DC burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 7:09 PM, leesburg 04 said: he just texted...he said RAPTASTIC This can't be right......right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 7:13 PM, Ji said: Jay Hatem weather going 2-3 Loudoun 1 downtown 1-2 DC burbs That guys sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 7:03 PM, zwyts said: Mitchnick,,,,how does the 18 hr RAP look? After looking at it he is at Home Depot buying a snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2-4 loudon 1-2 DC 2-3 MTN (2 bwi) Locally higher, radar is looking juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 7:13 PM, Ian said: That guys sucks YouTube video forecasts are next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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