Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 12z run was a blip just like last night 00z run. About .30 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hmm DCA gets screwed somehow with low qpf. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not that the Euro ensembles mean that much this close to the event but does anybody have access to the 36 hour of the 00Z? I am curious of the progression of the 1009 mb low in the gulf states to the 997 low off the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 WWA for northern tier counties, but LWX holding off for now on the immediate 95 corridor. And we get no help from 6z runs. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN ADVISORY CALIBER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM/SREF...WITH GFS SHOWING THE LEAST SNOW AND SREF THE MOST...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN P-TYPE AND TO A LESSER DEGREE QPF BUT ALL AGREE THAT THAT NORTHERN AND WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA WILL BE IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE SECOND PERIOD...BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA FROM BALTIMORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE RESOLVED...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE DID NOT WANT TO LOCK IN WITH AN ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A SECOND/THIRD PERIOD EVENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 06Z GFS is coming in with a slightly stronger low off the coast with also a slight adjustment to the west on it's track compared to the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since the NWS forcast dicsussion mention them, I figured it would post.... The 03Z SREF shows a very solid swath of precipitation spanning 1/3 of the country. Notice how the output is at the upper end of the scale- .48 and .49 on the outer edges of the .5 contour with some blues pushing back in to delaware... To me this is a pretty high confidence forcast for at least .25... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsrefp24045.gif Also- Look at the 850 temps... I am no expert at this (correct me if I am wrong)... but it looks as if the 0 degree line is over southern MD. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsref850mbTSLPUS033.gif One more thing to note is that the system does deepen rapidly as it passes to our south and east. Going from a 1009 low over SC to a 998 low off the jersey coast in 9 hours. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsref850mbTSLPUS042.gif Based on this model and the over performance of the lst two systems... I am would say we have a better than 50% chance of getting 3+ inches in the DC-Baltimore Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 06z runs way dry....time of death on this imminent Edit: dry to the West...still decent precip over DCA East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since the NWS forcast dicsussion mention them, I figured it would post.... The 03Z SREF shows a very solid swath of precipitation spanning 1/3 of the country. Notice how the output is at the upper end of the scale- .48 and .49 on the outer edges of the .5 contour with some blues pushing back in to delaware... To me this is a pretty high confidence forcast for at least .25... http://raleighwx.ame...zsrefp24045.gif Also- Look at the 850 temps... I am no expert at this (correct me if I am wrong)... but it looks as if the 0 degree line is over southern MD. http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS033.gif One more thing to note is that the system does deepen rapidly as it passes to our south and east. Going from a 1009 low over SC to a 998 low off the jersey coast in 9 hours. http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS042.gif Based on this model and the over performance of the lst two systems... I am would say we have a better than 50% chance of getting 3+ inches in the DC-Baltimore Metro The problem you have though is the fact that the 1000-850 mb (dark blue line) suggests otherwise. It moves from just south of DC up to Baltimore. Add in the fact that surface temps look to be in the mid 30's DC to Baltimore and you are talking slop if not just plain rain. To get mostly all snow you will need decent precip rates to overcome the warmth in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 For my backyard 1" final call....if it happens...great week of winter! Good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since the NWS forcast dicsussion mention them, I figured it would post.... The 03Z SREF shows a very solid swath of precipitation spanning 1/3 of the country. Notice how the output is at the upper end of the scale- .48 and .49 on the outer edges of the .5 contour with some blues pushing back in to delaware... To me this is a pretty high confidence forcast for at least .25... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsrefp24045.gif Also- Look at the 850 temps... I am no expert at this (correct me if I am wrong)... but it looks as if the 0 degree line is over southern MD. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsref850mbTSLPUS033.gif One more thing to note is that the system does deepen rapidly as it passes to our south and east. Going from a 1009 low over SC to a 998 low off the jersey coast in 9 hours. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsref850mbTSLPUS042.gif Based on this model and the over performance of the lst two systems... I am would say we have a better than 50% chance of getting 3+ inches in the DC-Baltimore Metro Another problem is they keep trending drier. Go back and look at them backwards to 9z yesterday and you can clearly see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Another problem is they keep trending drier. Go back and look at them backwards to 9z yesterday and you can clearly see it. i don't think you and I want that coastal to develop...steals our moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This setup reminds me of a lot of past systems where a swath of moisture develops over the area, and for a short time you think this is going to work out well, and then you see all the precip quickly disappearing as the developing coastal low steals our moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i don't think you and I want that coastal to develop...steals our moisture Take one for the team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i don't think you and I want that coastal to develop...steals our moisture No, let's hope it does. That will get the guys who haven't had anything in heavier precip. Maybe luck up and get some backbuilding precip out our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i don't think you and I want that coastal to develop...steals our moisture This is just a little eerie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Take one for the team lol ......no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No, let's hope it does. That will get the guys who haven't had anything in heavier precip. Maybe luck up and get some backbuilding precip out our way. 2" of snow for us on .18 ....trash can slush for Ian on .33 I'm good with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 In all seriousness....I really do hope everyone sees some accumulating snow from this...good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Feels rather milder out there this a.m than it has in a few days, which doesn't give much confidence for a cold BL in 24hrs time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2" of snow for us on .18 ....trash can slush for Ian on .33 I'm good with that It's been far too long since I've seen beautiful trash cans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Feels rather milder out there this a.m than it has in a few days, which doesn't give much confidence for a cold BL in 24hrs time... Xmas night on the way back from RIC it was 46 degrees. When I woke up Wednesday morning I was sitting at 30. It can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's been far too long since I've seen beautiful trash cans. i think people are overlooking the dry aspect of this. I know bl is important but it can be zero but with no moisture it's not gonna snow...this one just feels like a stuck in the middle type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i think people are overlooking the dry aspect of this. I know bl is important but it can be zero but with no moisture it's not gonna snow...this one just feels like a stuck in the middle type storm Yeah that's possible I suppose. Drizzle obs for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah that's possible I suppose. Drizzle obs for all. you know it's Friday gonna get a call out of you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i think people are overlooking the dry aspect of this. I know bl is important but it can be zero but with no moisture it's not gonna snow...this one just feels like a stuck in the middle type storm there is plenty of moisture...it's just warm...you will do fine I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 you know it's Friday gonna get a call out of you? I haven't really looked enough to have much confidence in any call. I think I like Matt's numbers mostly. So that's like 1' for you I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Have a guest from CA. Would love to have the city in white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM is a disaster, but it is the NAM.....the GFS is decent for outer burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NWS dropped its high temperature forecast for tomorrow, but is otherwise unimpressed in its snowfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM rolling in. Sounding above 950mb is good. Surface is warm and the dewpoints are very high, which is disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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