mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Surprised Mitchnick hasn't posted the RGEM yet. I've been playing with the Ready website soundings wrt the NAM looks like at least .30" of the .35" NAM spits out on me is wet snow, mainly falling at 33 degrees then jumps to 34, but there's only .04" to fall after that so 2-3" if the Ready site is correct I'll check RGEM now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I've been playing with the Ready website soundings wrt the NAM looks like at least .30" of the .35" NAM spits out on me is wet snow, mainly falling at 33 degrees then jumps to 34, but there's only .04" to fall after that so 2-3" if the Ready site is correct I'll check RGEM now You're slipping...the New England forum is already all over the RGEM. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 14th call Wes- 1 mangled flake Me/Andy- T Ian/Randy- 0.5" Bob chill 1" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 4" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman and Phineas 3" Ddweather 1" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 2.5" Mitchnick sleet Leesburg ji dave 12-16" Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. lol This is classic. Matt deserves snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Very close wrt rain/snow line, but it is warm at times, would be a close call. If we could stay snow, it would be a nice event. The temps on the Canadian are always off. I think that is one bias that is pretty well agreed-upon. The Canadian in general is mostly useless but it has prettier maps than its idiot brother the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is 0.2 to 0.3 for most of us, more to the NE. Temps are iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I thought we out here were going to get really fringed on this. But I will take clown map any time. Since the temps have trended cooler than models, I am not too concerned we will not see all snow/freezing. (Now that I said it, we may just be toast.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is fine for Baltimore, Matt in Old Town no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You're slipping...the New England forum is already all over the RGEM. MDstorm Not sure I'd want to hang my hat on the RGEM. Drooling over the RGEM is good for when you already have support from real models and you just want to see the weenie "what-if" best case scenario. Sort of like booze at a New Year's Eve party. If the host brings out a case of Natural Light, followed by a case of PBR, you know whatever comes next can't save the night. But if you already have tons of top-shelf booze, the RGEM can be like the champagne fountain flanked by two babes in bikinis. Just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Christmas Eve and Boxer were both cooler than modeled 36-48 hrs out around here, so I'm hoping that model quirk continues Confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The temps on the Canadian are always off. I think that is one bias that is pretty well agreed-upon. The Canadian in general is mostly useless but it has prettier maps than its idiot brother the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just don't buy that temps will be as big of a problem as they look on the GFS. Weeniecasting, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 14th call Wes- 1 mangled flake Me/Andy- T Ian/Randy- 0.5" Bob chill 1" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 4" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman and Phineas 3" Ddweather 1" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 2.5" Mitchnick sleet Leesburg ji dave 12-16" Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. I'm not measuring if it is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm not measuring if it is that you only need one snowflake.. you can even lie if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lol not even a pluie-neige near DC. feast or famine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is 0.2 to 0.3 for most of us, more to the NE. Temps are iffy. I think that's likely going to be our upper boundary re QPF... hope temps cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just don't buy that temps will be as big of a problem as they look on the GFS. Weeniecasting, I guess. GFS Temps verification from the Xmas Eve and Chill storms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just don't buy that temps will be as big of a problem as they look on the GFS. Weeniecasting, I guess. There's just not much reason to see temps go up a lot during the storm so I'd hedge low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 There's just not much reason to see temps go up a lot during the storm so I'd hedge low too. looking at the hourly forecast soundings on the Ready site for the NAM, surface winds are <5mph imby, so I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 looking at the hourly forecast soundings on the Ready site for the NAM, surface winds are <5mph imby, so I agree It would be more comforting if it looked like we could max out on cooling tomorrow night but clouds appear to move in pretty early. Tho, temps arent that warm tomorrow and dews arent that low so maybe a moot issue. It is pretty tricky along the 95 corridor it seems.. not much confidence one way or another. I'd give myself about a 50% chance of 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Are we really surprised by Justin Berks forecast? Hes on the high side of any event..I think a safe bet is a wet 1-2 inches of snow for Baltimore (maybe 3" northwest burbs) with about 1" of slush from Annapolis to DC...you do the rest of the polygon configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I suppose the biggest coin toss is the dual low setup. I've looked at enough panels to not fret the solutions on the models because it's just too narrow of a margin to believe one over the other. If it looks like the s low is winning tomorrow then jump for joy. If it looks like the n low is winning then jump from bridges. In between? Go with what makes the most sense for you. I jumped off a 45' bridge in CO in 1995. That sh!t is fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I suppose the biggest coin toss is the dual low setup. I've looked at enough panels to not fret the solutions on the models because it's just too narrow of a margin to believe one over the other. If it looks like the s low is winning tomorrow then jump for joy. If it looks like the n low is winning then jump from bridges. In between? Go with what makes the most sense for you. I jumped off a 45' bridge in CO in 1995. That sh!t is fun! I hear what your saying but either way you cut it we are 42 hrs from the event..theres not going to be a deepening low off the Carolinas...Generally a light QPF event with marginal temps for DC..best case, 1-3 inches, worst a rain/snow mix...Baltimore I think should be solid for the 1-2 inches regardless, a wet snow of course though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can't exactly tell if its cold enough via phone, but UKIE looks pretty nice tonight - if its snow that is... 7 or 8 mm or so I would guess which would be .35 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 we need the euro to bump us back up to .60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 we need the euro to bump us back up to .60 Yeah, that's not happening... you will take your 2 to 3 and like it sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can't exactly tell if its cold enough via phone, but UKIE looks pretty nice tonight - if its snow that is... 7 or 8 mm or so I would guess which would be .35 QPF. Over 10mm Baltimore north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 32-35* in lot of areas for event and getting 1" before the sun/daytime has any shot would really help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Are we really surprised by Justin Berks forecast? Hes on the high side of any event..I think a safe bet is a wet 1-2 inches of snow for Baltimore (maybe 3" northwest burbs) with about 1" of slush from Annapolis to DC...you do the rest of the polygon configuration. South and west of DCA we'll see about a quarter inch to half inch of slushy snow then a quick transition to rain. I'll take what I can get. Maybe by early March I'll hit a season total of three inches' worth of slushy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro decently cold, 32-33, about .22 Baltimore, .28 DCA. Good news is precip looks expansive than endures a random petering out, so .25 likely would extend through up into NE MD. Not bad at all considering the like .17 we got on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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