PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My weenie glass says the last two times it snowed here it was progged to be mostly rain due to the "borderline air mass." Is this setup remarkably different? IMO the set up is a little better with a strengthening Surface Low passing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yea but your climate is closer to Quebec's and ours is more like Atlanta. Enjoy your flakes. . It's going to work for everybody this time. We will merge the wettest model with the coldest and base all forecasts on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 850 temps are not as cold as last night's 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 looks okay for the western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No high to the north might be a problem. Not as much for you That's the sketchy part. We relied on things "hanging on longer" the last 2 events but there was reason to believe that. As I see it, the argument is "hanging on shorter". I guess we can rely on rates, evap, good column at onset and stuff like that but if things start falling apart in your back yard during the event pretty much nothing is going to help you switch back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 . It's going to work for everybody this time. We will merge the wettest model with the coldest and base all forecasts on that. Maybe I need a another cup of coffee. I seem unusually bearish this morning. Euro's gonna save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Maybe I need a another cup of coffee. I seem unusually bearish this morning. Euro's gonna save us! how much is Wes paying you, scab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's the sketchy part. We relied on things "hanging on longer" the last 2 events but there was reason to believe that. As I see it, the argument is "hanging on shorter". I guess we can rely on rates, evap, good column at onset and stuff like that but if things start falling apart in your back yard during the event pretty much nothing is going to help you switch back. Boxer day vort just comes undone, literally, which allows our vort to swing NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The HPC Experimental Suite seems similarly bearish... Accumulations less than 1" for the immediate DC area, and about a 30% chance of that... When does the next update come out? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 don't fret folks, 84 hr NAM says we do all this again next week http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think everyone in the 95 corridor should be bullish for mood flakes but pretty bearish for accums at this time. You can wishcast all you want about being wetter and slightly colder but having a vort pass nearly over head or to the west combined with an the surface low to the west will do absolutely nothing to help the argument that the models "are under doing the cold air". Edit: my wag is 0-2" 95 corridor and maybe 3 out in leesburg / winchester but even there won't have easy stickage the whole time. Bob, I like you wag but for dc would go towards and inch or less unless the surface temps tonight end up being a little colder and the precip comes in a little faster, then I think Dc could get an inch or 2. Out west My guess is 2-3 inches if measured on a snowboard. If on grass, then maybe a little more. I think being closer to the bay, my chances of seeing much snow is lower than even DCAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RAP 14Z run at 18 hrs (I know, I know) but... surface not so bad as the 850 line is starting to collapse south http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ruc/14/ruc_namer_018_precip_p01.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's OK everyone, GB has DC right on the 4" cusp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 His pops has taught him well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM gives 2-3 hours of mod snow before setting up a rain snow line along 95, eventfully progresses to about I 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 you too Too warm. What's the modeled start time for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If this comes in early and gets heavy for all of us, since many will start as snow, we could be rescued. What's that event a few years back where we were supposed to get an ice event and ended up with a few hours of thumping rates and 5-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I'll end up on the snow/rain border, which is fine. I'll take whatever I'll get. I have a WWA for 2-4 inches right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Good analysis zwyts. I pretty much agree on all points and have nothing to add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I'll end up on the snow/rain border, which is fine. I'll take whatever I'll get. I have a WWA for 2-4 inches right now You're probably sitting pretty up there, couple inches isn't a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You're probably sitting pretty up there, couple inches isn't a stretch Awesome. Thanks to you and Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Bob, I like you wag but for dc would go towards and inch or less unless the surface temps tonight end up being a little colder and the precip comes in a little faster, then I think Dc could get an inch or 2. Out west My guess is 2-3 inches if measured on a snowboard. If on grass, then maybe a little more. I think being closer to the bay, my chances of seeing much snow is lower than even DCAs. Well, my wag is basically a call based on a lot of stuff I learned from you so it's nice to see that you agree a bit. I don't have a photo memory like some but these last 3 storms have been awful subtle. Seemingly small and harmless features figuring out how to take away our hopes and dreams. Well, at least for those near the cities and s-e. I'm thinking we need to open a new subforum for everyone n & w of a line from germantown and dulles. Is this totally normal for us? I suppose it is but I don't remember 3 very marginal events in a row playing out so tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I dont know what precip type is with a warm column from 925mb down.....MN Transplant seemed to suggest that if we are freezing or below from 950 and up then with steady precip we are snow The 07 storm not to be confused with VD had dynamic cooling with the heavy rates that fell, there is moisture to tap tomorrow that could do the same for us. We'd then go to rain/drizzle like 07 as the precip at a certain point isn't heavy enough to keep the column cooled. The early start time certainly helps, and yes I think we'll all go to snow almost immediately for a bit even near you through evap cooling of the column. The GFS tries to kill the primary a bit earlier this run, that could help us if it could do it again in future runs. Also, yes it would be snow, MN is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LWS disco sounds like they're itching to expand the advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS sounding are not nearly as bad as I thought Was waiting for you to say that, would still imply 2-3" N of BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I am very low confidence on this one...more so than any recent storm I can think of....much easier to forecast when there is a warm nose higher up and/or an inversion layer above 850mb.........there are so many questionable factors for this one GFS sounding a surprise huh? I was surprised. The panels just didn't look healthy. Like dd said, the quicker we can get rid of the lp to the west the better off we are. That thing is like a canker sore for us. I don't remember where I said it before but this entire thing is a take what you can get type of storm. Questionable factors typically mean bad things for us but there are plenty of past examples where things worked out all in favor. It really stinks that we can't get some sort of cold air drain working until after it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS sounding are not nearly as bad as I thought 18z is bad, but the precip is basically done by then. 15z is so borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since first learning of this storm I have not had a single worry over precip type. I guess after the surprising 4 incher on Christmas eve. I feel like this one is in the bag already. Should be all snow and I can max out on ratios too. NWS has me down for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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