nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i don't think you and I want that coastal to develop...steals our moisture This is just a little eerie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Take one for the team lol ......no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No, let's hope it does. That will get the guys who haven't had anything in heavier precip. Maybe luck up and get some backbuilding precip out our way. 2" of snow for us on .18 ....trash can slush for Ian on .33 I'm good with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 In all seriousness....I really do hope everyone sees some accumulating snow from this...good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Feels rather milder out there this a.m than it has in a few days, which doesn't give much confidence for a cold BL in 24hrs time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2" of snow for us on .18 ....trash can slush for Ian on .33 I'm good with that It's been far too long since I've seen beautiful trash cans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Feels rather milder out there this a.m than it has in a few days, which doesn't give much confidence for a cold BL in 24hrs time... Xmas night on the way back from RIC it was 46 degrees. When I woke up Wednesday morning I was sitting at 30. It can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's been far too long since I've seen beautiful trash cans. i think people are overlooking the dry aspect of this. I know bl is important but it can be zero but with no moisture it's not gonna snow...this one just feels like a stuck in the middle type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i think people are overlooking the dry aspect of this. I know bl is important but it can be zero but with no moisture it's not gonna snow...this one just feels like a stuck in the middle type storm Yeah that's possible I suppose. Drizzle obs for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah that's possible I suppose. Drizzle obs for all. you know it's Friday gonna get a call out of you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 you know it's Friday gonna get a call out of you? I haven't really looked enough to have much confidence in any call. I think I like Matt's numbers mostly. So that's like 1' for you I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Have a guest from CA. Would love to have the city in white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NWS dropped its high temperature forecast for tomorrow, but is otherwise unimpressed in its snowfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM rolling in. Sounding above 950mb is good. Surface is warm and the dewpoints are very high, which is disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM rolling in. Sounding above 950mb is good. Surface is warm and the dewpoints are very high, which is disconcerting. At this point I don't care. Snow is coming, Somehow 0 will accumulate at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This has been trending drier with each run. Not near as impressive as the other 2 storms this week. Total precip for event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM rolling in. Sounding above 950mb is good. Surface is warm and the dewpoints are very high, which is disconcerting. Looks a bit deeper early. We will see if it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 nam is much wetter, .3-.4 inches area wide through 32 and still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yes. NAM is much juicier this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Trend towards an optimal vort pass isn't really there. That's prob #1. The weak low to our west is the dagger. I'm not giving up or saying it's a done deal but without improvements in those 2 departments we are going to suffer temp problems. Surface flow is easterly no matter which way you shake it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM total precip for event: 2-3 inches I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Winter weather.....drive ya nuts if you let it...it just needs to be tomorrow already and doing what it's gonna do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 you think we are going to see greater than 10:1 ratios? lol I think we end up with around .5 total QPF with 7:1 ratios. This is purely based on the the observations during the last two events. If the worst case scenario is .25 QPF with crappy surface temps.... and this over performs like the others two did, then the .5 with a 7:1 isn't out of the realm of possibilities for a Over Performance scenario. The new NAM seems to support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think everyone in the 95 corridor should be bullish for mood flakes but pretty bearish for accums at this time. You can wishcast all you want about being wetter and slightly colder but having a vort pass nearly over head or to the west combined with an the surface low to the west will do absolutely nothing to help the argument that the models "are under doing the cold air". Edit: my wag is 0-2" 95 corridor and maybe 3 out in leesburg / winchester but even there won't have easy stickage the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The 12Z NAM is the best run in days for this thing to my weenie eyes. If you weren't worried about temps before not sure why this run would cause new concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The 12Z NAM is the best run in days for this thing to my weenie eyes. If you weren't worried about temps before no sure why this run would cause new concerns. Maybe I'm too bearish but if we're going to have a borderline airmass as it is we really need a N-NE surface flow to have upside potential. That stupid low out west and closed 850 contour pretty much assures us of an e-se surface flow. I hope I'm wrong but I can't find the weenie glasses this AM. I know most on here know this so it's a posting the obvious but this clip helps visualize what I'm talking about. The large closed contour prohibits any cold air drain or CAD. Look at the flow on the western side of the contour. THAT is is we really need to get a "good" accum snow near the cities. Get rid of the stupid low out west and the contour is closed S & E of us. Voila, N winds and plenty of help. Is it going to work out that way? Nothing showing it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Maybe I'm too bearish but if we're going to have a borderline airmass as it is we really need a N-NE surface flow to have upside potential. That stupid low out west and closed 850 contour pretty much assures us of an e-se surface flow. I hope I'm wrong but I can't find the weenie glasses this AM. My weenie glass says the last two times it snowed here it was progged to be mostly rain due to the "borderline air mass." Is this setup remarkably different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think everyone in the 95 corridor should be bullish for mood flakes but pretty bearish for accums at this time. You can wishcast all you want about being wetter and slightly colder but having a vort pass nearly over head or to the west combined with an the surface low to the west will do absolutely nothing to help the argument that the models "are under doing the cold air". Edit: my wag is 0-2" 95 corridor and maybe 3 out in leesburg / winchester but even there won't have easy stickage the whole time. My forecast NAM temps don't go above freezing until after the precip ends. And snow sticks to snow pretty well. Give us the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My forecast NAM temps don't go above freezing until after the precip ends. And snow sticks to snow pretty well. Give us the moisture. Yea but your climate is closer to Quebec's and ours is more like Atlanta. Enjoy your flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My weenie glass says the last two times it snowed here it was progged to be mostly rain due to the "borderline air mass." Is this setup remarkably different? No high to the north might be a problem. Not as much for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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