TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't know if I'm looking at the wrong maps or what, but the NAM seems to be slightly drier area wide than it was at 12z. Essentially the same, .3-.4 Baltimore, a bit less to the W, but a comeback from 18z which was less, so thats a good sign. The vort looks solid, and up to 36 it looked really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't know if I'm looking at the wrong maps or what, but the NAM seems to be slightly drier area wide than it was at 12z. Probably about time for you guys to start getting fringed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't know if I'm looking at the wrong maps or what, but the NAM seems to be slightly drier area wide than it was at 12z. its drier by about .10 in Loudoun County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Probably about time for you guys to start getting fringed again. Seems a lot like the Christmas eve system, but now I can't remember how it was modeled except I think it trended wetter as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 its drier by about .10 in Loudoun County pretty much within the margin of error there's not much difference at 500 compared to 18z .. not the best pass for DC still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 its drier by about .10 in Loudoun County .31 at jyo that's more than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM printout for BWI definitely warming by 42 hrs, maybe still snow, but wet http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kbwi.txt IAD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt DCA http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z had .26 at jyo.....ji lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 21Z SREFs were good too. A little wetter than previous, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Warm nose at 875 or so by 15z. Warm below 850 by 18z. yeah..we are pretty much done by 18z so I think that would be serviceable..too bad the NAM has a cold bias and just sucks in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 21Z SREFs were good too. A little wetter than previous, I think. SREF's were a bit better, and the NAM at MTN looks mainly snow for our crowd (.37 QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 21Z SREFs were good too. A little wetter than previous, I think. NAM mtn http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmtn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM clown ugh.. What's .1 divided by 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z had .26 at jyo.....ji lol i was comparing it to 12z neighbor. who cares about 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why does the experimental product call for 1-2" in DC and zone says little or no accum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why does the experimental product call for 1-2" in DC and zone says little or no accum? experiments never work when comes to snowfall around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wetter in Winchester, 0.25 vs 0.2 (0z vs 18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM mtn http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kmtn.txt Thanks. Marginal surface but should be all snow around these parts if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thanks. Marginal surface but should be all snow around these parts if the NAM verifies. yep. it dosent snow from the surface up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i was comparing it to 12z neighbor. who cares about 18z dont recall 12z but this seems in line with the other runs...not sure 12z had .41 though....2-4 would be nice anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thanks. Marginal surface but should be all snow around these parts if the NAM verifies. mtn is noticeably cooler than BWI well, I'm a couple miles north and "technically" around 30' higher...so I got that going for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wetter in Winchester, 0.25 vs 0.2 (0z vs 18z) All level below freezing, would assume all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 dont recall 12z but this seems in line with the other runs...not sure 12z had .41 though....2-4 would be nice anyway .38 for us on 12z. As my wife says..every inch counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 .38 for us on 12z. As my wife says..every inch counts or in your case, .03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If it moves in early enough I'm not sure I'd worry so much about the column. It would be nice to have a big high to the north tho the air mass is probably OK, particularly north and west. If we're lucky it'll wind down as we're getting too mild.. but these types of days have a sneaky way of not warming up as much as we think. Since the initial sys to the west isnt that strong it shouldn't be pumping a ton of warm air in.. Granted, I'm still catching up.. may be wiscasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If it moves in early enough I'm not sure I'd worry so much about the column. It would be nice to have a big high to the north tho the air mass is probably OK, particularly north and west. If we're lucky it'll wind down as we're getting too mild.. but these types of days have a sneaky way of not warming up as much as we think. Since the initial sys to the west isnt that strong it shouldn't be pumping a ton of warm air in.. Granted, I'm still catching up.. may be wiscasting. Christmas Eve and Boxer were both cooler than modeled 36-48 hrs out around here, so I'm hoping that model quirk continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If it moves in early enough I'm not sure I'd worry so much about the column. It would be nice to have a big high to the north tho the air mass is probably OK, particularly north and west. If we're lucky it'll wind down as we're getting too mild.. but these types of days have a sneaky way of not warming up as much as we think. Since the initial sys to the west isnt that strong it shouldn't be pumping a ton of warm air in.. Granted, I'm still catching up.. may be wiscasting. It isn't like we are wishing for a "make its own cold" miracle with this storm. The soundings DCA-BWI and NW are either snow or close. This will be a sloppy one like 90% of the storms around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Surprised Mitchnick hasn't posted the RGEM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Surprised Mitchnick hasn't posted the RGEM yet. Very close wrt rain/snow line, but it is warm at times, would be a close call. If we could stay snow, it would be a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 0z NAM MOS bumped temps and dews a bit from earlier. That might not be helpful if it verifies. Earlier runs had us in a range where we'd wetbulb close to freezing through the morning even in DC. But, the small change might just be noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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