mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 36 hrs surface http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 36 hrs 5H http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_500_vort_ht.gif 850mb http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 36 hr map we all know and love http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif 700mb http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 39 hrs surface/850 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 500mb 39hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_500_vort_ht.gif 700rh http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 39 still http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is anyone really surprised? Nam is showing exactly what we need not cry in our rain with bl issues. I been unusually confident with this one...I prob just jinxed us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 0.3" ish QPF for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM looks good. boundary issues aaaagain anyway, here's 42 hr surface I'm done after this one http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_042_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is anyone really surprised? Nam is showing exactly what we need not cry in our rain with bl issues. I been unusually confident with this one...I prob just jinxed us... idk Bob, check out those surface maps on the good side is that it starts before 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 boundary issues aaaagain anyway, here's 42 hr surface I'm done after this one http://mag.ncep.noaa..._wnd_precip.gif There are always boundary issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No mitch, not a lot of boundary issues to be honest, I'd expect soundings to be fine, BL temps like 33 and decent 850's will overcome that. Snow similar to what we saw yesterday, will probably evap cool to 32, hard to have a model show that. I'd like some heavy precip to dynamically cool us a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 There are always boundary issues. only post 09/10 it seems I've never seen so many storms after that winter that were plenty cold at 850 only to roast near the ground anyway, here's 45 hrs, the freezing line keeps creeping north http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_045_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Freezing line at 950 is around DC. I'm comfortable with that, especially with the start time so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it's ova' at 48 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_048_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The light to moderate snow yesterday coated the roads just fine. Are we expecting vastly different temps from this one across the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_051_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM looks pretty good. A lot like the 18z gfs. I will check soundings soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM looks pretty good. A lot like the 18z gfs. I will check soundings soon. it's encouraging because it was way too warm for yesterday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not bad on the NAM, not bad at all. Doubt the temps will creep up like that if we have solid snow in here like that and then all of a sudden as we get to 8 or 9 am temps go up during moderate snows. Verbatim a nice run, if soundings matt checks cooperate, I'd guess 2-3" Baltimore, Phin would get 4, down in Old Town, matt gets 1-2. Going to check clowns lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 .3-.4 in area wide except around Baltimore and to the N and E where it's .4-.5 in of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it's encouraging because it was way too warm for yesterday's storm Yes, clowns give us 1-2 but I definitely think it is too warm for sure, the algorithms obviously are messing with the snow totals, even you should get 2" on this run with gfs-esque temps. Excited for the GFS to be honest, hope it can continue the trend of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM clown If you look at that map at 6 hours it looks virtually the same as it does then. That's a snow on the ground map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM looks pretty good. A lot like the 18z gfs. I will check soundings soon. Warm nose at 875 or so by 15z. Warm below 850 by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If you look at that map at 6 hours it looks virtually the same as it does then. That's a snow on the ground map. Yes, so clownish it is not even worthy of looking at. I would use soundings, climo, and H5 to make sense of this. Bob chill and matt do it, and they know whats up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 can we get a real fooking snowstorm please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't know if I'm looking at the wrong maps or what, but the NAM seems to be slightly drier area wide than it was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If you look at that map at 6 hours it looks virtually the same as it does then. That's a snow on the ground map. yes, for places out west where you are but when you go back earlier, say at 24 hrs, there's nothing around DCA/BWI I agree, it is misleading for places that already have snow in that it's harder to figure what falls from this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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