H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lol not even a pluie-neige near DC. feast or famine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is 0.2 to 0.3 for most of us, more to the NE. Temps are iffy. I think that's likely going to be our upper boundary re QPF... hope temps cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just don't buy that temps will be as big of a problem as they look on the GFS. Weeniecasting, I guess. GFS Temps verification from the Xmas Eve and Chill storms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just don't buy that temps will be as big of a problem as they look on the GFS. Weeniecasting, I guess. There's just not much reason to see temps go up a lot during the storm so I'd hedge low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 There's just not much reason to see temps go up a lot during the storm so I'd hedge low too. looking at the hourly forecast soundings on the Ready site for the NAM, surface winds are <5mph imby, so I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 looking at the hourly forecast soundings on the Ready site for the NAM, surface winds are <5mph imby, so I agree It would be more comforting if it looked like we could max out on cooling tomorrow night but clouds appear to move in pretty early. Tho, temps arent that warm tomorrow and dews arent that low so maybe a moot issue. It is pretty tricky along the 95 corridor it seems.. not much confidence one way or another. I'd give myself about a 50% chance of 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Are we really surprised by Justin Berks forecast? Hes on the high side of any event..I think a safe bet is a wet 1-2 inches of snow for Baltimore (maybe 3" northwest burbs) with about 1" of slush from Annapolis to DC...you do the rest of the polygon configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I suppose the biggest coin toss is the dual low setup. I've looked at enough panels to not fret the solutions on the models because it's just too narrow of a margin to believe one over the other. If it looks like the s low is winning tomorrow then jump for joy. If it looks like the n low is winning then jump from bridges. In between? Go with what makes the most sense for you. I jumped off a 45' bridge in CO in 1995. That sh!t is fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I suppose the biggest coin toss is the dual low setup. I've looked at enough panels to not fret the solutions on the models because it's just too narrow of a margin to believe one over the other. If it looks like the s low is winning tomorrow then jump for joy. If it looks like the n low is winning then jump from bridges. In between? Go with what makes the most sense for you. I jumped off a 45' bridge in CO in 1995. That sh!t is fun! I hear what your saying but either way you cut it we are 42 hrs from the event..theres not going to be a deepening low off the Carolinas...Generally a light QPF event with marginal temps for DC..best case, 1-3 inches, worst a rain/snow mix...Baltimore I think should be solid for the 1-2 inches regardless, a wet snow of course though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can't exactly tell if its cold enough via phone, but UKIE looks pretty nice tonight - if its snow that is... 7 or 8 mm or so I would guess which would be .35 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 we need the euro to bump us back up to .60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 we need the euro to bump us back up to .60 Yeah, that's not happening... you will take your 2 to 3 and like it sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can't exactly tell if its cold enough via phone, but UKIE looks pretty nice tonight - if its snow that is... 7 or 8 mm or so I would guess which would be .35 QPF. Over 10mm Baltimore north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 32-35* in lot of areas for event and getting 1" before the sun/daytime has any shot would really help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Are we really surprised by Justin Berks forecast? Hes on the high side of any event..I think a safe bet is a wet 1-2 inches of snow for Baltimore (maybe 3" northwest burbs) with about 1" of slush from Annapolis to DC...you do the rest of the polygon configuration. South and west of DCA we'll see about a quarter inch to half inch of slushy snow then a quick transition to rain. I'll take what I can get. Maybe by early March I'll hit a season total of three inches' worth of slushy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro decently cold, 32-33, about .22 Baltimore, .28 DCA. Good news is precip looks expansive than endures a random petering out, so .25 likely would extend through up into NE MD. Not bad at all considering the like .17 we got on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 12z run was a blip just like last night 00z run. About .30 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hmm DCA gets screwed somehow with low qpf. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not that the Euro ensembles mean that much this close to the event but does anybody have access to the 36 hour of the 00Z? I am curious of the progression of the 1009 mb low in the gulf states to the 997 low off the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 WWA for northern tier counties, but LWX holding off for now on the immediate 95 corridor. And we get no help from 6z runs. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN ADVISORY CALIBER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM/SREF...WITH GFS SHOWING THE LEAST SNOW AND SREF THE MOST...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN P-TYPE AND TO A LESSER DEGREE QPF BUT ALL AGREE THAT THAT NORTHERN AND WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA WILL BE IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE SECOND PERIOD...BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA FROM BALTIMORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE RESOLVED...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE DID NOT WANT TO LOCK IN WITH AN ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A SECOND/THIRD PERIOD EVENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 06Z GFS is coming in with a slightly stronger low off the coast with also a slight adjustment to the west on it's track compared to the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since the NWS forcast dicsussion mention them, I figured it would post.... The 03Z SREF shows a very solid swath of precipitation spanning 1/3 of the country. Notice how the output is at the upper end of the scale- .48 and .49 on the outer edges of the .5 contour with some blues pushing back in to delaware... To me this is a pretty high confidence forcast for at least .25... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsrefp24045.gif Also- Look at the 850 temps... I am no expert at this (correct me if I am wrong)... but it looks as if the 0 degree line is over southern MD. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsref850mbTSLPUS033.gif One more thing to note is that the system does deepen rapidly as it passes to our south and east. Going from a 1009 low over SC to a 998 low off the jersey coast in 9 hours. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsref850mbTSLPUS042.gif Based on this model and the over performance of the lst two systems... I am would say we have a better than 50% chance of getting 3+ inches in the DC-Baltimore Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 06z runs way dry....time of death on this imminent Edit: dry to the West...still decent precip over DCA East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since the NWS forcast dicsussion mention them, I figured it would post.... The 03Z SREF shows a very solid swath of precipitation spanning 1/3 of the country. Notice how the output is at the upper end of the scale- .48 and .49 on the outer edges of the .5 contour with some blues pushing back in to delaware... To me this is a pretty high confidence forcast for at least .25... http://raleighwx.ame...zsrefp24045.gif Also- Look at the 850 temps... I am no expert at this (correct me if I am wrong)... but it looks as if the 0 degree line is over southern MD. http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS033.gif One more thing to note is that the system does deepen rapidly as it passes to our south and east. Going from a 1009 low over SC to a 998 low off the jersey coast in 9 hours. http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS042.gif Based on this model and the over performance of the lst two systems... I am would say we have a better than 50% chance of getting 3+ inches in the DC-Baltimore Metro The problem you have though is the fact that the 1000-850 mb (dark blue line) suggests otherwise. It moves from just south of DC up to Baltimore. Add in the fact that surface temps look to be in the mid 30's DC to Baltimore and you are talking slop if not just plain rain. To get mostly all snow you will need decent precip rates to overcome the warmth in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 For my backyard 1" final call....if it happens...great week of winter! Good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Since the NWS forcast dicsussion mention them, I figured it would post.... The 03Z SREF shows a very solid swath of precipitation spanning 1/3 of the country. Notice how the output is at the upper end of the scale- .48 and .49 on the outer edges of the .5 contour with some blues pushing back in to delaware... To me this is a pretty high confidence forcast for at least .25... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsrefp24045.gif Also- Look at the 850 temps... I am no expert at this (correct me if I am wrong)... but it looks as if the 0 degree line is over southern MD. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsref850mbTSLPUS033.gif One more thing to note is that the system does deepen rapidly as it passes to our south and east. Going from a 1009 low over SC to a 998 low off the jersey coast in 9 hours. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsref850mbTSLPUS042.gif Based on this model and the over performance of the lst two systems... I am would say we have a better than 50% chance of getting 3+ inches in the DC-Baltimore Metro Another problem is they keep trending drier. Go back and look at them backwards to 9z yesterday and you can clearly see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Another problem is they keep trending drier. Go back and look at them backwards to 9z yesterday and you can clearly see it. i don't think you and I want that coastal to develop...steals our moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This setup reminds me of a lot of past systems where a swath of moisture develops over the area, and for a short time you think this is going to work out well, and then you see all the precip quickly disappearing as the developing coastal low steals our moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i don't think you and I want that coastal to develop...steals our moisture Take one for the team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i don't think you and I want that coastal to develop...steals our moisture No, let's hope it does. That will get the guys who haven't had anything in heavier precip. Maybe luck up and get some backbuilding precip out our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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