TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Add Justin Berk to bullish, has entire region DC and N and W 3" +, SE MD at 2"+ Here's what TL speaks of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's conservative? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's conservative? Lol I know right Ian? Put him on bullish except also bearish as to him he's going bearish yet HPC type bullish to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I know right Ian? Put him on bullish except also bearish as to him he's going bearish yet HPC type bullish to us. I have no idea what you just tried to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have no idea what you just tried to say I had a feeling that was coming, let me break it down. He said conservative upside, so he'd put himself on the bearish list We would definitely put him on the bullish list as he's HPCish with his forecast except we'd also have to conform to his feeling of reluctancy and also place him on the bears, even though he has no business on that list. Capiche? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sure. Tho I'm not sure HPC is that bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 14th call Wes- 1 mangled flake Me/Andy- T Ian/Randy- 0.5" Bob chill 1" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 4" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman and Phineas 3" Ddweather 1" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 2.5" Mitchnick sleet Leesburg ji dave 12-16" Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. lol. Nice work. Looks like some good snows in Pendleton and Pocahontas counties. Good chase area for this one, if you're inclined. If I can get 0.9" I'll pass 2011-12's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If IAD can get 2.3" on Saturday they will finish the month normal in snowfall....pretty fair shot I think...I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This is the funniest thread we've had in many moons. Hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sure. Tho I'm not sure HPC is that bullish. I think a lot of people misinterpret seeing the blue line on the HPC snow prob maps as saying "good chance you'll get that." I think HPC is probably right where they should be right now. The blue line indicates a 10% chance of exceeding the amount indicated. That's not that high of a chance. Even the green indicates just 40%. Probability forecasting does not jive with many people (I guess same effect that we have when the public sees 45% on the SPC map and assumes it's not a good chance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Generally people are afraid to forecast snow for DC until its staring them in the face. I bet everyone will be really shocked when 00Z tomorrow shows 4-6 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think a lot of people misinterpret seeing the blue line on the HPC snow prob maps as saying "good chance you'll get that." I think HPC is probably right where they should be right now. The blue line indicates a 10% chance of exceeding the amount indicated. That's not that high of a chance. Even the green indicates just 40%. Probability forecasting does not jive with many people (I guess same effect that we have when the public sees 45% on the SPC map and assumes it's not a good chance). That's because it is essentially a non-forecast. No matter what happens HPC verifies. That's OK as they are supposed to just be guidance for the NWS offices. But when supposed "forecasters" use such probabilities you just have to laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think a lot of people misinterpret seeing the blue line on the HPC snow prob maps as saying "good chance you'll get that." I think HPC is probably right where they should be right now. The blue line indicates a 10% chance of exceeding the amount indicated. That's not that high of a chance. Even the green indicates just 40%. Probability forecasting does not jive with many people (I guess same effect that we have when the public sees 45% on the SPC map and assumes it's not a good chance). Yeah those are essentially switched, I know what it means, but I mean their surface map is still bullish, Berk is actually one of the most bullish, along with DT, but he's on another planet so he doesn't really even count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's because it is essentially a non-forecast. No matter what happens HPC verifies. That's OK as they are supposed to just be guidance for the NWS offices. But when supposed "forecasters" use such probabilities you just have to laugh. Agree with you there. Though with the massive public rush to be weather enthusiasts in the past years, the HPC maps are finding their way to the public via Facebook and Twitter. Then the public interprets it whatever way they want to. Though it's probably a discussion for another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think a lot of people misinterpret seeing the blue line on the HPC snow prob maps as saying "good chance you'll get that." I think HPC is probably right where they should be right now. The blue line indicates a 10% chance of exceeding the amount indicated. That's not that high of a chance. Even the green indicates just 40%. Probability forecasting does not jive with many people (I guess same effect that we have when the public sees 45% on the SPC map and assumes it's not a good chance). True. However, you have to consider that it is a probability forecast for 4"+. I haven't looked but their probability forecasts for many of at least two are probably considerably higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I bet everyone will be really shocked when 00Z tomorrow shows 4-6 across the area. Well like I said I really haven't looked at much the last few days so I dunno exactly what the upside is.. Seems less than that for me at least and most of my comments are DC centric as I really don't care if people who already saw snow get 3 or 5 inches more. I have to edit tonight for the forecast tomorrow so ill l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I bet everyone will be really shocked when 00Z tomorrow shows 4-6 across the area. Well like I said I really haven't looked at much the last few days so I dunno exactly what the upside is.. Seems less than that for me at least and most of my comments are DC centric as I really don't care if people who already saw snow get 3 or 5 inches more. I have to edit tonight for the forecast tomorrow so ill look things over more soon. If nothing else there seems to have been a general warm bias the last two events until they were underway.. Tho I do think the mild forecast for the cities ended up largely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm more bullish than Wes would want me to be but more bearish than DT doesn't want to be but hpc has it wrong because I'm thinking 12-13% with lollies to 24%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like 1-3" for most of the northern Va area and DC as well. The way the models have been it would not surprise me tomorrow that they all go warm and we have a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It took all winter last year to have this much discussion about snow........and we are still in December. That's a win for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Generally people are afraid to forecast snow for DC until its staring them in the face. Totally. I'm going to make a final call. Screw the model madness. DCA 0.6" BWI 1.4" IAD 2.1" Leesburg/MRB/HGR etc. 2.5-3.5". 4-5" above 1500' Phineas/PSU 3" Everyone else can extrapolate from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 we should dump the models and just go by water vapor loops and Intellicast radar trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sure. Tho I'm not sure HPC is that bullish. I'm on a phone but last time I checked they had DC proper over under at 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think this is pretty good so far (21 hrs NAM) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_021_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Totally. I'm going to make a final call. Screw the model madness. DCA 0.6" BWI 1.4" IAD 2.1" Leesburg/MRB/HGR etc. 2.5-3.5". 4-5" above 1500' Phineas/PSU 3" Everyone else can extrapolate from that. Looks good to me. As per the usual, the highest totals will fall on and north of a line from hereford - Westminster - thurmont - martinsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 30 hrs NAM 0Z 5H http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_030_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM's pretty juicy thru 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 33 hrs surface NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 33 hrs 5H-I'm posting these from the temp site, of course http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 33 hrs, 850 temps have been DROPPING! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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