Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z had .26 at jyo.....ji lol i was comparing it to 12z neighbor. who cares about 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why does the experimental product call for 1-2" in DC and zone says little or no accum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why does the experimental product call for 1-2" in DC and zone says little or no accum? experiments never work when comes to snowfall around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wetter in Winchester, 0.25 vs 0.2 (0z vs 18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM mtn http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kmtn.txt Thanks. Marginal surface but should be all snow around these parts if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thanks. Marginal surface but should be all snow around these parts if the NAM verifies. yep. it dosent snow from the surface up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i was comparing it to 12z neighbor. who cares about 18z dont recall 12z but this seems in line with the other runs...not sure 12z had .41 though....2-4 would be nice anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thanks. Marginal surface but should be all snow around these parts if the NAM verifies. mtn is noticeably cooler than BWI well, I'm a couple miles north and "technically" around 30' higher...so I got that going for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wetter in Winchester, 0.25 vs 0.2 (0z vs 18z) All level below freezing, would assume all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 dont recall 12z but this seems in line with the other runs...not sure 12z had .41 though....2-4 would be nice anyway .38 for us on 12z. As my wife says..every inch counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 .38 for us on 12z. As my wife says..every inch counts or in your case, .03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If it moves in early enough I'm not sure I'd worry so much about the column. It would be nice to have a big high to the north tho the air mass is probably OK, particularly north and west. If we're lucky it'll wind down as we're getting too mild.. but these types of days have a sneaky way of not warming up as much as we think. Since the initial sys to the west isnt that strong it shouldn't be pumping a ton of warm air in.. Granted, I'm still catching up.. may be wiscasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If it moves in early enough I'm not sure I'd worry so much about the column. It would be nice to have a big high to the north tho the air mass is probably OK, particularly north and west. If we're lucky it'll wind down as we're getting too mild.. but these types of days have a sneaky way of not warming up as much as we think. Since the initial sys to the west isnt that strong it shouldn't be pumping a ton of warm air in.. Granted, I'm still catching up.. may be wiscasting. Christmas Eve and Boxer were both cooler than modeled 36-48 hrs out around here, so I'm hoping that model quirk continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If it moves in early enough I'm not sure I'd worry so much about the column. It would be nice to have a big high to the north tho the air mass is probably OK, particularly north and west. If we're lucky it'll wind down as we're getting too mild.. but these types of days have a sneaky way of not warming up as much as we think. Since the initial sys to the west isnt that strong it shouldn't be pumping a ton of warm air in.. Granted, I'm still catching up.. may be wiscasting. It isn't like we are wishing for a "make its own cold" miracle with this storm. The soundings DCA-BWI and NW are either snow or close. This will be a sloppy one like 90% of the storms around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Surprised Mitchnick hasn't posted the RGEM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Surprised Mitchnick hasn't posted the RGEM yet. Very close wrt rain/snow line, but it is warm at times, would be a close call. If we could stay snow, it would be a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 0z NAM MOS bumped temps and dews a bit from earlier. That might not be helpful if it verifies. Earlier runs had us in a range where we'd wetbulb close to freezing through the morning even in DC. But, the small change might just be noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Surprised Mitchnick hasn't posted the RGEM yet. I've been playing with the Ready website soundings wrt the NAM looks like at least .30" of the .35" NAM spits out on me is wet snow, mainly falling at 33 degrees then jumps to 34, but there's only .04" to fall after that so 2-3" if the Ready site is correct I'll check RGEM now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I've been playing with the Ready website soundings wrt the NAM looks like at least .30" of the .35" NAM spits out on me is wet snow, mainly falling at 33 degrees then jumps to 34, but there's only .04" to fall after that so 2-3" if the Ready site is correct I'll check RGEM now You're slipping...the New England forum is already all over the RGEM. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 14th call Wes- 1 mangled flake Me/Andy- T Ian/Randy- 0.5" Bob chill 1" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 4" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman and Phineas 3" Ddweather 1" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 2.5" Mitchnick sleet Leesburg ji dave 12-16" Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. lol This is classic. Matt deserves snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Very close wrt rain/snow line, but it is warm at times, would be a close call. If we could stay snow, it would be a nice event. The temps on the Canadian are always off. I think that is one bias that is pretty well agreed-upon. The Canadian in general is mostly useless but it has prettier maps than its idiot brother the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is 0.2 to 0.3 for most of us, more to the NE. Temps are iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I thought we out here were going to get really fringed on this. But I will take clown map any time. Since the temps have trended cooler than models, I am not too concerned we will not see all snow/freezing. (Now that I said it, we may just be toast.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is fine for Baltimore, Matt in Old Town no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You're slipping...the New England forum is already all over the RGEM. MDstorm Not sure I'd want to hang my hat on the RGEM. Drooling over the RGEM is good for when you already have support from real models and you just want to see the weenie "what-if" best case scenario. Sort of like booze at a New Year's Eve party. If the host brings out a case of Natural Light, followed by a case of PBR, you know whatever comes next can't save the night. But if you already have tons of top-shelf booze, the RGEM can be like the champagne fountain flanked by two babes in bikinis. Just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Christmas Eve and Boxer were both cooler than modeled 36-48 hrs out around here, so I'm hoping that model quirk continues Confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The temps on the Canadian are always off. I think that is one bias that is pretty well agreed-upon. The Canadian in general is mostly useless but it has prettier maps than its idiot brother the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just don't buy that temps will be as big of a problem as they look on the GFS. Weeniecasting, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 14th call Wes- 1 mangled flake Me/Andy- T Ian/Randy- 0.5" Bob chill 1" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 4" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman and Phineas 3" Ddweather 1" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 2.5" Mitchnick sleet Leesburg ji dave 12-16" Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. I'm not measuring if it is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm not measuring if it is that you only need one snowflake.. you can even lie if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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